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Article
Open AccessEvaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty
Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that s...
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Article
Open AccessHow radical is radical cure? Site-specific biases in clinical trials underestimate the effect of radical cure on Plasmodium vivax hypnozoites
Plasmodium vivax blood-stage relapses originating from re-activating hypnozoites are a major barrier for control and elimination of this disease. Radical cure is a form of therapy capable of addressing this probl...
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Article
Open AccessTrade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease
Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult ...
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Article
Optimal Control of the COVID-19 Pandemic with Non-pharmaceutical Interventions
The COVID-19 pandemic has forced societies across the world to resort to social distancing to slow the spread of the SARS-CoV-2 virus. Due to the economic impacts of social distancing, there is growing desire ...
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Article
Open AccessLocal and regional dynamics of chikungunya virus transmission in Colombia: the role of mismatched spatial heterogeneity
Mathematical models of transmission dynamics are routinely fitted to epidemiological time series, which must inevitably be aggregated at some spatial scale. Weekly case reports of chikungunya have been made av...
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Article
Open AccessExploring scenarios of chikungunya mitigation with a data-driven agent-based model of the 2014–2016 outbreak in Colombia
New epidemics of infectious diseases can emerge any time, as illustrated by the emergence of chikungunya virus (CHIKV) and Zika virus (ZIKV) in Latin America. During new epidemics, public health officials face...
