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Open AccessProjecting vaccine demand and impact for emerging zoonotic pathogens
Despite large outbreaks in humans seeming improbable for a number of zoonotic pathogens, several pose a concern due to their epidemiological characteristics and evolutionary potential. To enable effective resp...
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Open AccessTrade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease
Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult ...
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Open AccessInter-annual variation in seasonal dengue epidemics driven by multiple interacting factors in Guangzhou, China
Vector-borne diseases display wide inter-annual variation in seasonal epidemic size due to their complex dependence on temporally variable environmental conditions and other factors. In 2014, Guangzhou, China ...
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Open AccessLocal and regional dynamics of chikungunya virus transmission in Colombia: the role of mismatched spatial heterogeneity
Mathematical models of transmission dynamics are routinely fitted to epidemiological time series, which must inevitably be aggregated at some spatial scale. Weekly case reports of chikungunya have been made av...
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Open AccessSpatiotemporal incidence of Zika and associated environmental drivers for the 2015-2016 epidemic in Colombia
Despite a long history of mosquito-borne virus epidemics in the Americas, the impact of the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic of 2015–2016 was unexpected. The need for scientifically informed decision-making is drivi...
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Erratum: Model-based projections of Zika virus infections in childbearing women in the Americas
Nature Microbiology 1, 16126 (2016); published online 25 July 2016; corrected 20 March 2017 In the original version of this Letter, the name of author T. Alex Perkins was coded wrongly, resulting in it being i...
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Model-based projections of Zika virus infections in childbearing women in the Americas
Zika virus is a mosquito-borne pathogen that is rapidly spreading across the Americas. Due to associations between Zika virus infection and a range of fetal maladies1,2, the epidemic trajectory of this viral infe...
