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  1. Article

    Open Access

    Trade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease

    Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult ...

    Rachel J. Oidtman, Elisa Omodei, Moritz U. G. Kraemer in Nature Communications (2021)

  2. Article

    Open Access

    Lying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil

    After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas in 2016, both Zika and dengue incidence declined to record lows in many countries in 2017–2018, but in 2019 dengue resurged in Brazil, causing ~2.1 million ...

    Anderson Fernandes Brito, Lais Ceschini Machado, Rachel J. Oidtman in Nature Communications (2021)

  3. Article

    Open Access

    Inter-annual variation in seasonal dengue epidemics driven by multiple interacting factors in Guangzhou, China

    Vector-borne diseases display wide inter-annual variation in seasonal epidemic size due to their complex dependence on temporally variable environmental conditions and other factors. In 2014, Guangzhou, China ...

    Rachel J. Oidtman, Shengjie Lai, Zhoujie Huang, Juan Yang in Nature Communications (2019)