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Article
Open AccessTrade-offs between individual and ensemble forecasts of an emerging infectious disease
Probabilistic forecasts play an indispensable role in answering questions about the spread of newly emerged pathogens. However, uncertainties about the epidemiology of emerging pathogens can make it difficult ...
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Article
Open AccessLying in wait: the resurgence of dengue virus after the Zika epidemic in Brazil
After the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas in 2016, both Zika and dengue incidence declined to record lows in many countries in 2017–2018, but in 2019 dengue resurged in Brazil, causing ~2.1 million ...
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Article
Open AccessInter-annual variation in seasonal dengue epidemics driven by multiple interacting factors in Guangzhou, China
Vector-borne diseases display wide inter-annual variation in seasonal epidemic size due to their complex dependence on temporally variable environmental conditions and other factors. In 2014, Guangzhou, China ...