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Article
Global warming overshoots increase risks of climate tip** cascades in a network model
Current policies and actions make it very likely, at least temporarily, to overshoot the Paris climate targets of 1.5–<2.0 °C above pre-industrial levels. If this global warming range is exceeded, potential ti...
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Article
Open AccessDetecting contagious spreading of urban innovations on the global city network
Only a fast and global transformation towards decarbonization and sustainability can keep the Earth in a civilization-friendly state. As hotspots for (green) innovation and experimentation, cities could play a...
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Article
Open AccessDose–response functions and surrogate models for exploring social contagion in the Copenhagen Networks Study
Spreading dynamics and complex contagion processes on networks are important mechanisms underlying the emergence of critical transitions, tip** points and other non-linear phenomena in complex human and natu...
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Article
Open AccessModelling nonlinear dynamics of interacting tip** elements on complex networks: the PyCascades package
Tip** elements occur in various systems such as in socio-economics, ecology and the climate system. In many cases, the individual tip** elements are not independent of each other, but they interact across ...
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Article
Past abrupt changes, tip** points and cascading impacts in the Earth system
The geological record shows that abrupt changes in the Earth system can occur on timescales short enough to challenge the capacity of human societies to adapt to environmental pressures. In many cases, abrupt ...
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Article
Open AccessGlobal warming due to loss of large ice masses and Arctic summer sea ice
Several large-scale cryosphere elements such as the Arctic summer sea ice, the mountain glaciers, the Greenland and West Antarctic Ice Sheet have changed substantially during the last century due to anthropoge...
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Article
The hysteresis of the Antarctic Ice Sheet
More than half of Earth’s freshwater resources are held by the Antarctic Ice Sheet, which thus represents by far the largest potential source for global sea-level rise under future warming conditions1. Its long-t...
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Article
Open AccessA network-based microfoundation of Granovetter’s threshold model for social tip**
Social tip**, where minorities trigger larger populations to engage in collective action, has been suggested as one key aspect in addressing contemporary global challenges. Here, we refine Granovetter’s wide...
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Article
Human impacts on planetary boundaries amplified by Earth system interactions
The planetary boundary framework presents a ‘planetary dashboard’ of humanity’s globally aggregated performance on a set of environmental issues that endanger the Earth system’s capacity to support humanity. W...
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Article
Open AccessCoherent response of the Indian Monsoon Rainfall to Atlantic Multi-decadal Variability over the last 2000 years
Indian Summer Monsoon (ISM) rainfall has a direct effect on the livelihoods of two billion people in the Indian-subcontinent. Yet, our understanding of the drivers of multi-decadal variability of the ISM is fa...
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Article
Amplified Rossby waves enhance risk of concurrent heatwaves in major breadbasket regions
In an interconnected world, simultaneous extreme weather events in distant regions could potentially impose high-end risks for societies1,2. In the mid-latitudes, circumglobal Rossby waves are associated with a s...
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Article
The physics of governance networks: critical transitions in contagion dynamics on multilayer adaptive networks with application to the sustainable use of renewable resources
Adaptive networks are a versatile approach to model phenomena such as contagion and spreading dynamics, critical transitions and structure formation that emerge from the dynamic coevolution of complex network...
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Article
Open AccessWhen optimization for governing human-environment tip** elements is neither sustainable nor safe
Optimizing economic welfare in environmental governance has been criticized for delivering short-term gains at the expense of long-term environmental degradation. Different from economic optimization, the conc...
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Article
Open AccessClustered marginalization of minorities during social transitions induced by co-evolution of behaviour and network structure
Large-scale transitions in societies are associated with both individual behavioural change and restructuring of the social network. These two factors have often been considered independently, yet recent advan...
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Article
How complex climate networks complement eigen techniques for the statistical analysis of climatological data
Eigen techniques such as empirical orthogonal function (EOF) or coupled pattern (CP)/maximum covariance analysis have been frequently used for detecting patterns in multivariate climatological data sets. Rece...
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Article
Open AccessIdentifying causal gateways and mediators in complex spatio-temporal systems
Identifying regions important for spreading and mediating perturbations is crucial to assess the susceptibilities of spatio-temporal complex systems such as the Earth’s climate to volcanic eruptions, extreme e...
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Article
Open AccessComplex networks for climate model evaluation with application to statistical versus dynamical modeling of South American climate
In this study we introduce two new node-weighted difference measures on complex networks as a tool for climate model evaluation. The approach facilitates the quantification of a model’s ability to reproduce th...
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Complex Network Analysis of Recurrences
We present a complex network-based approach to characterizing the geometric properties of chaos by exploiting the pattern of recurrences in phase space. For this purpose, we utilize the basic definition of a r...
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Article
Visibility graph analysis of geophysical time series: Potentials and possible pitfalls
Recently, complex network approaches to time series analysis have been developed and successfully applied to geophysical records. In this paper, the visibility graph approach is re-considered, which has been f...
