-
Article
Open AccessCorrection: Assessment of fever screening at airports in detecting domestic passengers infected with SARS-CoV-2, 2020–2022, Okinawa prefecture, Japan
-
Article
Open AccessSpatialWavePredict: a tutorial-based primer and toolbox for forecasting growth trajectories using the ensemble spatial wave sub-epidemic modeling framework
Dynamical mathematical models defined by a system of differential equations are typically not easily accessible to non-experts. However, forecasts based on these types of models can help gain insights into the...
-
Article
Open AccessAssessment of fever screening at airports in detecting domestic passengers infected with SARS-CoV-2, 2020–2022, Okinawa prefecture, Japan
While airport screening measures for COVID-19 infected passengers at international airports worldwide have been greatly relaxed, observational studies evaluating fever screening alone at airports remain scarce...
-
Article
Open AccessEarly detection of emerging viral variants through analysis of community structure of coordinated substitution networks
The emergence of viral variants with altered phenotypes is a public health challenge underscoring the need for advanced evolutionary forecasting methods. Given extensive epistatic interactions within viral gen...
-
Article
Open AccessGrowthPredict: A toolbox and tutorial-based primer for fitting and forecasting growth trajectories using phenomenological growth models
Simple dynamic modeling tools can help generate real-time short-term forecasts with quantified uncertainty of the trajectory of diverse growth processes unfolding in nature and society, including disease outbr...
-
Chapter and Conference Paper
Community Structure and Temporal Dynamics of Viral Epistatic Networks Allow for Early Detection of Emerging Variants with Altered Phenotypes
In this study, we demonstrated that SARS-CoV-2 emerging variants can be detected or predicted by examining the community structure of viral coordinated substitution networks. These variants can be linked to de...
-
Article
Open AccessA New Paradigm for Pandemic Preparedness
Preparing for pandemics requires a degree of interdisciplinary work that is challenging under the current paradigm. This review summarizes the challenges faced by the field of pandemic science and proposes how...
-
Article
Structural identifiability analysis of epidemic models based on differential equations: a tutorial-based primer
The successful application of epidemic models hinges on our ability to estimate model parameters from limited observations reliably. An often-overlooked step before estimating model parameters consists of ensu...
-
Article
Open AccessAttitudes and behaviors of university students during the COVID-19 pandemic in a predominantly Indigenous population in Mexico: a survey study
The COVID-19 pandemic has become one of the most devastating worldwide crises. The pandemic has heavily affected the most vulnerable groups, including Indigenous communities. Our study aimed to evaluate the at...
-
Article
Open AccessEvaluation of Bayesian spatiotemporal infectious disease models for prospective surveillance analysis
COVID-19 brought enormous challenges to public health surveillance and underscored the importance of develo** and maintaining robust systems for accurate surveillance. As public health data collection effort...
-
Article
Open AccessExcess mortality in Ukraine during the course of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–2021
In this work, the COVID-19 pandemic burden in Ukraine is investigated retrospectively using the excess mortality measures during 2020–2021. In particular, the epidemic impact on the Ukrainian population is stu...
-
Article
Open AccessReal-time forecasting the trajectory of monkeypox outbreaks at the national and global levels, July–October 2022
Beginning May 7, 2022, multiple nations reported an unprecedented surge in monkeypox cases. Unlike past outbreaks, differences in affected populations, transmission mode, and clinical characteristics have been...
-
Article
Open AccessComparative epidemiology of five waves of COVID-19 in Mexico, March 2020–August 2022
The Mexican Institute of Social Security (IMSS) is the largest health care provider in Mexico, covering about 48% of the Mexican population. In this report, we describe the epidemiological patterns related to ...
-
Chapter
Sub-epidemic Model Forecasts During the First Wave of the COVID-19 Pandemic in the USA and European Hotspots
Mathematical models have been widely used to understand the dynamics of the ongoing coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic as well as to predict future trends and assess intervention strategies. The asyn...
-
Article
Open AccessHarnessing testing strategies and public health measures to avert COVID-19 outbreaks during ocean cruises
To ensure the safe operation of schools, workplaces, nursing homes, and other businesses during COVID-19 pandemic there is an urgent need to develop cost-effective public health strategies. Here we focus on th...
-
Article
A review and agenda for integrated disease models including social and behavioural factors
Social and behavioural factors are critical to the emergence, spread and containment of human disease, and are key determinants of the course, duration and outcomes of disease outbreaks. Recent epidemics of Eb...
-
Article
Open AccessCharacterizing all-cause excess mortality patterns during COVID-19 pandemic in Mexico
Low testing rates and delays in reporting hinder the estimation of the mortality burden associated with the COVID-19 pandemic. During a public health emergency, estimating all cause excess deaths above an expe...
-
Article
Open AccessEnsemble bootstrap methodology for forecasting dynamic growth processes using differential equations: application to epidemic outbreaks
Ensemble modeling aims to boost the forecasting performance by systematically integrating the predictive accuracy across individual models. Here we introduce a simple-yet-powerful ensemble methodology for fore...
-
Article
Open AccessCOVID-19 case fatality risk by age and gender in a high testing setting in Latin America: Chile, March–August 2020
Early severity estimates of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are critically needed to assess the potential impact of the ongoing pandemic in different demographic groups. Here we estimate the real-time dela...
-
Article
Open AccessEarly epidemiological assessment of the transmission potential and virulence of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in Wuhan City, China, January–February, 2020
Since the first cluster of cases was identified in Wuhan City, China, in December 2019, coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) rapidly spreads globally. Scientists have made strides in estimating key transmission...
