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Article
Open AccessThe genomic evolutionary dynamics and global circulation patterns of respiratory syncytial virus
Respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) is a leading cause of acute lower respiratory tract infection in young children and the second leading cause of infant death worldwide. While global circulation has been exten...
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Article
Open AccessDrivers and impact of the early silent invasion of SARS-CoV-2 Alpha
SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs) circulated cryptically before being identified as a threat, delaying interventions. Here we studied the drivers of such silent spread and its epidemic impact to inform fut...
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Article
Open AccessDispersion patterns of SARS-CoV-2 variants Gamma, Lambda and Mu in Latin America and the Caribbean
Latin America and Caribbean (LAC) regions were an important epicenter of the COVID-19 pandemic and SARS-CoV-2 evolution. Through the COVID-19 Genomic Surveillance Regional Network (COVIGEN), LAC countries prod...
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Open AccessEpidemic graph diagrams as analytics for epidemic control in the data-rich era
COVID-19 highlighted modeling as a cornerstone of pandemic response. But it also revealed that current models may not fully exploit the high-resolution data on disease progression, epidemic surveillance and ho...
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Article
Open AccessRetrospective analysis of SARS-CoV-2 omicron invasion over delta in French regions in 2021–22: a status-based multi-variant model
SARS-CoV-2 is a rapidly spreading disease affecting human life and the economy on a global scale. The disease has caused so far more then 5.5 million deaths. The omicron outbreak that emerged in Botswana in th...
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Open AccessAgent-based modelling of reactive vaccination of workplaces and schools against COVID-19
With vaccination against COVID-19 stalled in some countries, increasing vaccine accessibility and distribution could help keep transmission under control. Here, we study the impact of reactive vaccination targ...
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Article
Open AccessAdherence and sustainability of interventions informing optimal control against the COVID-19 pandemic
After one year of stop-and-go COVID-19 mitigation, in the spring of 2021 European countries still experienced sustained viral circulation due to the Alpha variant. As the prospect of entering a new pandemic ph...
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Article
Untangling introductions and persistence in COVID-19 resurgence in Europe
After the first wave of SARS-CoV-2 infections in spring 2020, Europe experienced a resurgence of the virus starting in late summer 2020 that was deadlier and more difficult to contain1. Relaxed intervention measu...
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Open AccessReorganization of nurse scheduling reduces the risk of healthcare associated infections
Efficient prevention and control of healthcare associated infections (HAIs) is still an open problem. Using contact data from wearable sensors at a short-stay geriatric ward, we propose a proof-of-concept mode...
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Article
Open AccessAccommodating individual travel history and unsampled diversity in Bayesian phylogeographic inference of SARS-CoV-2
Spatiotemporal bias in genome sampling can severely confound discrete trait phylogeographic inference. This has impeded our ability to accurately track the spread of SARS-CoV-2, the virus responsible for the C...
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Open AccessMechanisms for lyssavirus persistence in non-synanthropic bats in Europe: insights from a modeling study
Bats are natural reservoirs of the largest proportion of viral zoonoses among mammals, thus understanding the conditions for pathogen persistence in bats is essential to reduce human risk. Focusing on the Euro...
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Article
Open AccessShifting patterns of seasonal influenza epidemics
Seasonal waves of influenza display a complex spatiotemporal pattern resulting from the interplay of biological, sociodemographic, and environmental factors. At country level many studies characterized the rob...
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Article
Open AccessThe impact of regular school closure on seasonal influenza epidemics: a data-driven spatial transmission model for Belgium
School closure is often considered as an option to mitigate influenza epidemics because of its potential to reduce transmission in children and then in the community. The policy is still however highly debated...
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Article
Open AccessRecalibrating disease parameters for increasing realism in modeling epidemics in closed settings
The homogeneous mixing assumption is widely adopted in epidemic modelling for its parsimony and represents the building block of more complex approaches, including very detailed agent-based models. The latter ...
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Article
Open AccessRisk of MERS importation and onward transmission: a systematic review and analysis of cases reported to WHO
The continuing circulation of MERS in the Middle East makes the international dissemination of the disease a permanent threat. To inform risk assessment, we investigated the spatiotemporal pattern of MERS glob...
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Real-Time Assessment of the International Spreading Risk Associated with the 2014 West African Ebola Outbreak
The 2014 West African Ebola Outbreak is the largest Ebola virus disease (EVD) epidemic ever recorded, not only in number of cases but also in geographical extent. Unlike previous EVD outbreaks, the large numbe...
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Infection propagator approach to compute epidemic thresholds on temporal networks: impact of immunity and of limited temporal resolution
The epidemic threshold of a spreading process indicates the condition for the occurrence of the wide spreading regime, thus representing a predictor of the network vulnerability to the epidemic. Such threshold...
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Article
Open AccessCharacterising two-pathogen competition in spatially structured environments
Different pathogens spreading in the same host population often generate complex co-circulation dynamics because of the many possible interactions between the pathogens and the host immune system, the host lif...
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Article
Open AccessThe representativeness of a European multi-center network for influenza-like-illness participatory surveillance
The Internet is becoming more commonly used as a tool for disease surveillance. Similarly to other surveillance systems and to studies using online data collection, Internet-based surveillance will have biases...
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Article
Open AccessMetapopulation epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing and travel behaviour
Determining the pandemic potential of an emerging infectious disease and how it depends on the various epidemic and population aspects is critical for the preparation of an adequate response aimed at its contr...
