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Article
Open AccessEarly detection of emerging viral variants through analysis of community structure of coordinated substitution networks
The emergence of viral variants with altered phenotypes is a public health challenge underscoring the need for advanced evolutionary forecasting methods. Given extensive epistatic interactions within viral gen...
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Article
Open AccessGrowthPredict: A toolbox and tutorial-based primer for fitting and forecasting growth trajectories using phenomenological growth models
Simple dynamic modeling tools can help generate real-time short-term forecasts with quantified uncertainty of the trajectory of diverse growth processes unfolding in nature and society, including disease outbr...
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Article
Open AccessExcess mortality in Ukraine during the course of COVID-19 pandemic in 2020–2021
In this work, the COVID-19 pandemic burden in Ukraine is investigated retrospectively using the excess mortality measures during 2020–2021. In particular, the epidemic impact on the Ukrainian population is stu...
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Article
Open AccessHarnessing testing strategies and public health measures to avert COVID-19 outbreaks during ocean cruises
To ensure the safe operation of schools, workplaces, nursing homes, and other businesses during COVID-19 pandemic there is an urgent need to develop cost-effective public health strategies. Here we focus on th...
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Article
Open AccessAsymptomatic Transmission and the Dynamics of Zika Infection
Following the 2013–14 outbreak in French Polynesia, the Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic spread widely to many countries where Aedes Aegypti as the main transmitting vector is endemic. The lack of a second wave of ZIKV...
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Open AccessPrevention and Control of Zika as a Mosquito-Borne and Sexually Transmitted Disease: A Mathematical Modeling Analysis
The ongoing Zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic in the Americas poses a major global public health emergency. While ZIKV is transmitted from human to human by bites of Aedes mosquitoes, recent evidence indicates that ZIKV...
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Article
Urban structure and the risk of influenza A (H1N1) outbreaks in municipal districts
Changsha was one of the most affected areas during the 2009 A (H1N1) influenza pandemic in China. Here, we analyze the spatial–temporal dynamics of the 2009 pandemic across Changsha municipal districts, evalua...