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A combined approach using b-value and ionospheric GPS-TEC for large earthquake precursor detection: a case study for the Colima earthquake of 7.7 Mw, Mexico

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Abstract

Possible ionospheric TEC precursor and crustal stress (b-value) precursor related to the Mw 7.7 Colima earthquake of September 19, 2022, were analyzed in the present study. b-value analysis was conducted using the Gutenberg-Richter law. Results indicate a decrease in the b-value towards the western part of Colima Rift and Michoacan Block due to an increase in the effective stress level before major earthquakes. Further, the Poisson probability was also computed from the derived data that indicates the probability of 82% occurrence for a 7.7 Mw earthquake. In addition, several negative anomalies in TEC (Total Electron Content) before the 7.7 Mw Colima earthquake were observed by GPS data. A distinct anomaly was observed on 22 August and 6 September, 2022, 28 and 13 days before the earthquake. The study also found that TEC values were significantly low in areas with lower b-values, indicating a higher probability of larger earthquakes. Additionally, a low TEC zone was detected near the epicenter before the earthquake using TEC data from a dense network of 57 GPS sites in Mexico.

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Acknowledgements

This work was carried out with the support (CVU: 1182470) of the National Council of Science and Technology (CONACyT) in Mexico. The authors express their gratitude to International GNSS Services (IGS), UNAVCO, and National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) for providing high-quality data for their analysis. They also acknowledge the National Seismological Service in Mexico for providing the seismological data used in the study. The authors extend thanks to the staff of SSN for their role in station maintenance, data acquisition, and distribution. Finally, the authors offer their sincere appreciation to Gopi Seemala for sharing the GPS-TEC v3.2 software, which was used for the vTEC estimation.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Faculty of Earth and Space Sciences, Autonomous University of Sinaloa, Culiacán, Mexico

    Karan Nayak, Rosendo Romero-Andrade, Juan Luis Cabanillas Zavala, Charbeth López Urias & Manuel E. Trejo Soto

  2. North-Eastern Space Application Centre, Umiam, India

    Gopal Sharma & S. P. Aggarwal

Authors
  1. Karan Nayak
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  2. Rosendo Romero-Andrade
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  3. Gopal Sharma
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  4. Juan Luis Cabanillas Zavala
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  5. Charbeth López Urias
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  6. Manuel E. Trejo Soto
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  7. S. P. Aggarwal
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Contributions

Data collection, process, and analysis were performed by KN, JLCZ, CLU, and RRA. The manuscript was written by KN and JLCZ. GS and RRA made suggestions on data process and interpretation. METS and SPA reviewed and modified the manuscript. All authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript and read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Karan Nayak.

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Nayak, K., Romero-Andrade, R., Sharma, G. et al. A combined approach using b-value and ionospheric GPS-TEC for large earthquake precursor detection: a case study for the Colima earthquake of 7.7 Mw, Mexico. Acta Geod Geophys 58, 515–538 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40328-023-00430-x

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