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Evaluating skill in predicting the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation in initialized decadal climate prediction hindcasts in E3SMv1 and CESM1 using two different initialization methods and a small set of start years
It is a daunting challenge to conduct initialized hindcasts with enough ensemble members and associated start years to form a drifted climatology...
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The effects of bias, drift, and trends in calculating anomalies for evaluating skill of seasonal-to-decadal initialized climate predictions
In initialized seasonal to decadal (S2D) predictions, model hindcasts rapidly drift away from the initial observed state and converge toward a...
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Initialized Earth System prediction from subseasonal to decadal timescales
Initialized Earth System predictions are made by starting a numerical prediction model in a state as consistent as possible to observations and...
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Evaluation of East Asian Summer Climate Prediction from the CESM Large-Ensemble Initialized Decadal Prediction Project
Based on surface air temperature and precipitation observation data and NCEP/NCAR atmospheric reanalysis data, this study evaluates the prediction of...
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Causes and multiyear predictability of the rapid acceleration of U.S. Southeast Sea level rise after 2010
The rate of sea level rise (SLR) along the Southeast Coast of the U.S. increased significantly after 2010. While anthropogenic radiative forcing...
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Intercomparison of initialization methods for seasonal-to-decadal climate predictions with the NorCPM
Initialization is essential for accurate seasonal-to-decadal (S2D) climate predictions. The initialization schemes used differ on the component...
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Calibrated probabilistic sub-seasonal forecasting for Pakistan’s monsoon rainfall in 2022
In 2022, a record-breaking monsoon caused flooding throughout Pakistan, particularly in the southern regions, resulting in deaths, property losses,...
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Exceptional multi-year prediction skill of the Kuroshio Extension in the CESM high-resolution decadal prediction system
The Kuroshio Extension (KE) has far-reaching influences on climate as well as on local marine ecosystems. Thus, skillful multi-year to decadal...
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CAS FGOALS-f3-L Model Datasets for CMIP6 DCPP Experiment
The outputs of the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) Flexible Global Ocean-Atmosphere-Land System (FGOALS-f3-L) model for the decadal climate...
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Dynamical Predictability of Leading Interannual Variability Modes of the Asian-Australian Monsoon in Climate Models
The dynamical prediction of the Asian-Australian monsoon (AAM) has been an important and long-standing issue in climate science. In this study, the...
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Predictability and skill of convection-permitting ensemble forecast systems in predicting the record-breaking “21·7” extreme rainfall event in Henan Province, China
During 19–21 July 2021, an extreme rainfall event occurred in Henan Province, China, during which a record-breaking maximum hourly rainfall of 201.9...
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How well does MPAS simulate the West African Monsoon?
AbstractThe West African Monsoon (WAM) system plays a crucial role in the West African climate system because it transports moisture from the...
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Estimating Probabilities of Extreme ENSO Events from Copernicus Seasonal Hindcasts
Multi-system seasonal hindcasts supporting operational seasonal forecasts of the Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) are examined to estimate...
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Predictability and Risk of Extreme Winter PM2.5 Concentration in Bei**g
Air pollution remains a serious environmental and social problem in many big cities in the world. How to predict and estimate the risk of extreme air...
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Regional climate model intercomparison over the Tibetan Plateau in the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I
Results from eight regional climate models (RCMs) participating in the Impact of Initialized Land Temperature and Snowpack on Sub-seasonal to...
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The impact of ocean data assimilation on seasonal predictions based on the National Climate Center climate system model
An ensemble optimal interpolation (EnOI) data assimilation method is applied in the BCC_CSM1.1 to investigate the impact of ocean data assimilations...
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NAO predictability from external forcing in the late 20th century
The North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) is predictable in climate models at near-decadal timescales. Predictive skill derives from ocean initialization,...
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Statistical calibrations to improve the 2–5-year prediction skill for SST over the North Atlantic
Decadal prediction experiments with six coupled climate models initialized yearly from 1960 to 2009 are used to evaluate the prediction skill for sea...
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Polar WRF V4.1.1 simulation and evaluation for the Antarctic and Southern Ocean
A recent version of the Polar Weather Research and Forecasting model (Polar WRF) has been upgraded to the version 4.X era with an improved NoahMP...
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Atmospheric teleconnection associated with the Atlantic multidecadal variability in summer: assessment of the CESM1 model
Observational analysis shows that the Atlantic multidecadal variability (AMV) is associated with climate variability in the Northern Hemisphere...
