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Article
North Atlantic climate far more predictable than models imply
Quantifying signals and uncertainties in climate models is essential for the detection, attribution, prediction and projection of climate change1–3. Although inter-model agreement is high for large-scale temperat...
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Article
Open AccessAuthor Correction: Robust skill of decadal climate predictions
An amendment to this paper has been published and can be accessed via a link at the top of the paper.
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Article
Differences in potential and actual skill in a decadal prediction experiment
Decadal prediction results are analyzed for the predictability and skill of annual mean temperature. Forecast skill is assessed in terms of correlation, mean square error (MSE) and mean square skill score. The...
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Article
Open AccessRobust skill of decadal climate predictions
There is a growing need for skilful predictions of climate up to a decade ahead. Decadal climate predictions show high skill for surface temperature, but confidence in forecasts of precipitation and atmospheri...
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Article
Relationships between potential, attainable, and actual skill in a decadal prediction experiment
A sequence of ensemble forecasts permits the estimation of the “predictable” and “unpredictable” components of the forecasts and hence the predictability of the system. Predictability is a feature of a physica...
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Article
Open AccessThe Asian–Bering–North American teleconnection: seasonality, maintenance, and climate impact on North America
The Asian–Bering–North American (ABNA) teleconnection index is constructed from the normalized 500-hPa geopotential field by excluding the Pacific–North American pattern contribution. The ABNA pattern features...
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Article
Decadal predictability and forecast skill
The “potential predictability” of the climate system is the upper limit of available forecast skill and can be characterized by the ratio p of the predictable variance to the total variance. While the potential p...
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Article
Covariability of SST and surface heat fluxes in reanalyses and CMIP3 climate models
The generation and dissipation of SST anomalies is mediated by the covariability of SST and surface heat fluxes. The connection between the variability of heat flux (including its radiative and turbulent compo...
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Chapter and Conference Paper
Interaction of acoustic oscillations with time-dependent compressible convection
We present the results of numerical simulations in which acoustic waves are driven into a two-dimensional layer of compressible fluid which is undergoing convection. The energetics of the waves are analyzed by...
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Chapter and Conference Paper
On the analysis of physical wave trains
When a wave train whose constituent frequencies and wave numbers are unresolved by observation propagates through an inhomogeneous medium, beating between the components can contaminate deductions one might na...
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Chapter and Conference Paper
Transport in oscillatory flows
We examine the degree to which the transport of a passive scalar contaminant is enhanced by an oscillatory cellular flow. The enhancement is found to depend on the Péclet number Pe and on the ratio η of the oscil...
