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Article
Adaptive group Lasso neural network models for functions of few variables and time-dependent data
Learning nonlinear functions from time-varying measurements is always difficult due to the high correlation among observations. This task is more challenging when the target function is high dimensional. In th...
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Article
SPADE4: Sparsity and Delay Embedding Based Forecasting of Epidemics
Predicting the evolution of diseases is challenging, especially when the data availability is scarce and incomplete. The most popular tools for modelling and predicting infectious disease epidemics are compart...
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Article
When can we reconstruct the ancestral state? Beyond Brownian motion
Reconstructing the ancestral state of a group of species helps answer many important questions in evolutionary biology. Therefore, it is crucial to understand when we can estimate the ancestral state accuratel...
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Article
Ancestral state reconstruction with large numbers of sequences and edge-length estimation
Likelihood-based methods are widely considered the best approaches for reconstructing ancestral states. Although much effort has been made to study properties of these methods, previous works often assume that...
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Article
On the convergence of the maximum likelihood estimator for the transition rate under a 2-state symmetric model
Maximum likelihood estimators are used extensively to estimate unknown parameters of stochastic trait evolution models on phylogenetic trees. Although the MLE has been proven to converge to the true value in t...
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Article
Birth/birth-death processes and their computable transition probabilities with biological applications
Birth-death processes track the size of a univariate population, but many biological systems involve interaction between populations, necessitating models for two or more populations simultaneously. A lack of ...
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Article
Phase transition on the convergence rate of parameter estimation under an Ornstein–Uhlenbeck diffusion on a tree
Diffusion processes on trees are commonly used in evolutionary biology to model the joint distribution of continuous traits, such as body mass, across species. Estimating the parameters of such processes from ...