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Open AccessBringing the Nature Futures Framework to life: creating a set of illustrative narratives of nature futures
To halt further destruction of the biosphere, most people and societies around the globe need to transform their relationships with nature. The internationally agreed vision under the Convention of Biological ...
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Article
Open AccessPathways to achieving nature-positive and carbon–neutral land use and food systems in Wales
Land use and its management can play a vital role in carbon sequestration, but trade-offs may exist with other objectives including food security and nature recovery. Using an integrated model (the FABLE calcu...
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Open AccessSustainable pathways towards climate and biodiversity goals in the UK: the importance of managing land-use synergies and trade-offs
Agricultural and environmental policies are being fundamentally reviewed and redesigned in the UK following its exit from the European Union. The UK government and the Devolved Administrations recognise that c...
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Open AccessIntegrated modeling to achieve global goals: lessons from the Food, Agriculture, Biodiversity, Land-use, and Energy (FABLE) initiative
Humanity is challenged with making progress toward global biodiversity, freshwater, and climate goals, while providing food and nutritional security for everyone. Our current food and land-use systems are inco...
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Open AccessDownscaling population and urban land use for socio-economic scenarios in the UK
Projecting the distribution of population is critical in supporting analysis of the impacts and risks associated with climate change. In this paper, we apply a computational algorithm parameterised for the UK ...
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Publisher Correction: Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework
A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41558-020-00981-9.
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Achievements and needs for the climate change scenario framework
Long-term global scenarios have underpinned research and assessment of global environmental change for four decades. Over the past ten years, the climate change research community has developed a scenario fram...
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Open AccessFuture projections of biodiversity and ecosystem services in Europe with two integrated assessment models
Projections of future changes in biodiversity and ecosystem services (BES) are of increasing importance to inform policy and decision-making on options for conservation and sustainable use of BES. Scenario-bas...
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Climate Governance and High-End Futures in Europe
In this chapter, we present how climate action that fosters transformations to sustainability and resilience in European societies can be developed in the context of high-end climate change. The chapter builds...
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Operationalising Transition Management for Navigating High-End Climate Futures
Transition management has been applied in different governance contexts over the past 15 years, showing its modularity and also its ability to facilitate participatory strategic planning and agenda setting. Th...
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Article
Biodiversity’s contributions to sustainable development
International concern to develop sustainably challenges us to act upon the inherent links between our economy, society and environment, and is leading to increasing acknowledgement of biodiversity’s importance...
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Understanding high-end climate change: from impacts to co-creating integrated and transformative solutions
The world is not yet on track to meet the Paris Agreement climate change target of kee** global average temperature rise within 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. Current greenhouse gas emission trends point ...
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Open AccessImproving the representation of adaptation in climate change impact models
Climate change adaptation is a complex human process, framed by uncertainties and constraints, which is difficult to capture in existing assessment models. Attempts to improve model representations are hampere...
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Open AccessNew European socio-economic scenarios for climate change research: operationalising concepts to extend the shared socio-economic pathways
Scenarios have been recognised as a useful tool for planning, which have resulted in a strong increase in the number of (multi-scale) scenarios in climate change research. This paper addresses the need for met...
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Open AccessBridging uncertainty concepts across narratives and simulations in environmental scenarios
Uncertainties in our understanding of current and future climate change projections, impacts and vulnerabilities are structured by scientists using scenarios, which are generally in qualitative (narrative) and...
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Article
Open AccessTransition pathways to sustainability in greater than 2 °C climate futures of Europe
The complex challenges arising from climate change that exceeds the +2 °C target (termed ‘high-end climate change’) in Europe require new integrative responses to support transformations to a more sustainable ...
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Article
Open AccessDifferences between low-end and high-end climate change impacts in Europe across multiple sectors
The Paris Agreement established the 1.5 and 2 °C targets based on the recognition “that this would significantly reduce the risks and impacts of climate change”. We tested this assertion by comparing impacts a...
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Open AccessOffshore renewable energy and nature conservation: the case of marine tidal turbines in Northern Ireland
The global demand for renewable energy continues to increase rapidly and with it the necessity to develop and test new technologies to deliver the power. Offshore renewable energy sources that harness wind, wa...
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Article
Why conserve biodiversity? A multi-national exploration of stakeholders’ views on the arguments for biodiversity conservation
Given the concern about biodiversity loss, there are a number of arguments used for biodiversity conservation ranging from those emphasising the intrinsic value of biodiversity to those on the direct use value...
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What can conservation strategies learn from the ecosystem services approach? Insights from ecosystem assessments in two Spanish protected areas
Biodiversity conservation strategies that overlook the interests of local people are prone to create conflicts. The ecosystem service approach holds potential for more comprehensively integrating the social di...
