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  1. Article

    Open Access

    Evaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty

    Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that s...

    Emily Howerton, Lucie Contamin, Luke C. Mullany, Michelle Qin in Nature Communications (2023)

  2. Article

    Open Access

    Real time monitoring of COVID-19 intervention effectiveness through contact tracing data

    Communities worldwide have used vaccines and facemasks to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. When an individual opts to vaccinate or wear a mask, they may lower their own risk of becoming infected as well as the ...

    Graham C. Gibson, Spencer Woody, Emily James, Minda Weldon in Scientific Reports (2023)

  3. Article

    Open Access

    Design of COVID-19 staged alert systems to ensure healthcare capacity with minimal closures

    Community mitigation strategies to combat COVID-19, ranging from healthy hygiene to shelter-in-place orders, exact substantial socioeconomic costs. Judicious implementation and relaxation of restrictions ampli...

    Haoxiang Yang, Özge Sürer, Daniel Duque, David P. Morton in Nature Communications (2021)

  4. Article

    Open Access

    Modeling mitigation of influenza epidemics by baloxavir

    Influenza viruses annually kill 290,000–650,000 people worldwide. Antivirals can reduce death tolls. Baloxavir, the recently approved influenza antiviral, inhibits initiation of viral mRNA synthesis, whereas o...

    Zhanwei Du, Ciara Nugent, Alison P. Galvani, Robert M. Krug in Nature Communications (2020)

  5. Article

    Open Access

    Couple serostatus patterns in sub-Saharan Africa illuminate the relative roles of transmission rates and sexual network characteristics in HIV epidemiology

    HIV prevalence has surpassed 30% in some African countries while peaking at less than 1% in others. The extent to which this variation is driven by biological factors influencing the HIV transmission rate or b...

    Steven E. Bellan, David Champredon, Jonathan Dushoff in Scientific Reports (2018)