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Open AccessLimited increases in Arctic offshore oil and gas production with climate change and the implications for energy markets
Climate change impacts on sea ice thickness is opening access to offshore Arctic resources. The degree to which these resources are exploited will depend on sea-ice conditions, technology costs, international ...
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The path to 1.5 °C requires ratcheting of climate pledges
Increasing climate ambition through 2030 will be crucial to limiting global peak temperature changes this century. Countries need to ratchet their 2030 pledges made in Glasgow to reduce temperature overshoot a...
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Ratcheting of climate pledges needed to limit peak global warming
The new and updated emission reduction pledges submitted by countries ahead of the Twenty-Sixth Conference of Parties represent a meaningful strengthening of global ambition compared to the 2015 Paris pledges....
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US energy system transitions under cumulative emissions budgets
Cumulative emissions budgets are increasingly being used by decision-makers and analysts to understand emissions reductions and associated transitions in the context of long-term goals such as limiting global ...
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Interpreting energy scenarios
Quantitative scenarios from energy–economic models inform decision-making about uncertain futures. Now, research shows the different ways these scenarios are subsequently used by users not involved in their in...
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Publisher Correction: Measuring progress from nationally determined contributions to mid-century strategies
In the version of this Article previously published, technical problems led to the wrong summary appearing on the homepage, and an incorrect Supplementary Information file being uploaded. Both errors have now ...
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Implications of sustainable development considerations for comparability across nationally determined contributions
An important component of the Paris Agreement is the assessment of comparability across nationally determined contributions (NDCs). Indeed, game-theory literature on international environmental agreements high...
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Measuring progress from nationally determined contributions to mid-century strategies
The Paris Agreement requires countries to articulate near-term emissions reduction strategies through to 2025 or 2030 by communicating nationally determined contributions (NDCs), as well as encouraging the for...
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Explaining differences
Carbon dioxide emission scenarios rely on a number of assumptions about how societies will develop in the future, creating uncertainty in projections. Now, research reveals the sensitivity of emission estimate...
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Economic tools to promote transparency and comparability in the Paris Agreement
Results from four integrated assessment models show countries’ efforts to cut emissions fall towards the lower end of the social cost of carbon distribution, suggesting insufficient levels of ambition to meet ...
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Accounting for radiative forcing from albedo change in future global land-use scenarios
We demonstrate the effectiveness of a new method for quantifying radiative forcing from land use and land cover change (LULCC) within an integrated assessment model, the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM). ...
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Open AccessThe effects of climate sensitivity and carbon cycle interactions on mitigation policy stringency
Climate sensitivity and climate-carbon cycle feedbacks interact to determine how global carbon and energy cycles will change in the future. While the science of these connections is well documented, their econ...
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Near-term acceleration in the rate of temperature change
Knowledge of the near-term rate of change is needed for adaptation. The rate at which climate change is occurring, over 40-year periods, is found to be unprecedented in the past 1,000 years. Regionally, Europe...
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Climate mitigation policy implications for global irrigation water demand
Measures to limit greenhouse gas concentrations will result in dramatic changes to energy and land systems and in turn alter the character of human requirements for water. We employ the global change assessmen...
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Open AccessCan radiative forcing be limited to 2.6 Wm−2 without negative emissions from bioenergy AND CO2 capture and storage?
Combining bioenergy and carbon dioxide (CO2) capture and storage (CCS) technologies (BECCS) has the potential to remove CO2 from the atmosphere while producing useful energy. BECCS has played a central role in sc...
