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Chapter and Conference Paper
Risk-Informed Decision-Making on Volcanic Hazards
The safety of residents and tourists in volcanic regions is traditionally managed through an alert system with discrete levels ranging from no unrest to a major volcanic eruption. In recent years, substantial ...
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Chapter and Conference Paper
Geoethics: The Missing Piece in the Separation of Responsibility Between Volcanologists and Decision-Makers
In a volcanic crisis, authorized decision-makers must balance the social and economic costs of mitigating actions, such as evacuation, against the potential human losses if such actions are insufficient. In ma...
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Article
Open AccessAsia’s looming Black Elephant events
Devastating disasters that are predicted but ignored are known as Black Elephants—a cross between a Black Swan event and the proverbial elephant in the room. It’s time we acknowledged the looming natural hazar...
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Chapter
Expert Judgement in Terrorism Risk Assessment
Since 9/11, the probabilistic risk assessment of losses from terrorism has formed a quantitative basis for informed terrorism risk management. An irreducible element is the elicitation of expert judgement. In ...
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Chapter
Anthropic Perils and Man-Made Risks
A hall-mark of the twenty-first century is global technological advancement. The welcome positive rewards of modernization are however associated with some negative outcomes: risks of industrial failures and d...
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Chapter
Quantitative Man-Made Risks’ Modelling
Catastrophe modelling began with earthquakes, then expanded to cover windstorms, floods, tsunamis, volcanic eruptions and other natural hazards, and has evolved in the twenty-first century to cover significant...
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Chapter
Participatory Decision-Making on Hazard Warnings
There are many hazard situations where there is significant uncertainty over whether a dangerous event will actually materialize and threaten a populated region. In the presence of such uncertainty, hazard war...
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Article
Open AccessAn analysis of the issuance of volcanic alert levels during volcanic crises
Volcano Alert Levels (VALs) are used by volcanologists to quickly and simply inform local populations and government authorities of the level of volcanic unrest and eruption likelihood. Most VALs do not explic...
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Article
Open AccessSantorini unrest 2011–2012: an immediate Bayesian belief network analysis of eruption scenario probabilities for urgent decision support under uncertainty
Unrest at the Greek volcanic island of Santorini in 2011–2012 was a cause for unease for some governments, concerned about risks to their nationals on this popular holiday island if an eruption took place. In ...
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Article
Historical development of the British and Scandinavian earthquake archives
The study of historical earthquakes itself has an interesting history, and Nick Ambraseys figures highly in it. This historiographic tribute relates the pivotal role that he played in the development of the Br...
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Article
Risk Management in Turbulent Times by Gilles Bénéplanc and Jean-Charles Rochet
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Chapter
Interdiction of Plots with Multiple Operatives
On Christmas Day, 2009, a former president of the Islamic Society at University College London, Umar Farouk Abdulmutallab, came within a detonation of bringing down a transatlantic airliner flying into Detroit...
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Chapter
Intelligence Constraints on Terrorist Network Plots
Since 9/11, the western intelligence and law enforcement services have managed to interdict the great majority of planned attacks against their home countries. Network analysis shows that there are important i...
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Article
Probabilistic criteria for volcano evacuation decisions
One of the most challenging decisions in the domain of natural hazards is whether to evacuate a densely populated region around a volcano that appears to threaten a major eruption. The economic expense of mass...
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Article
Need for a risk-informed tsunami alert system
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Chapter and Conference Paper
Uncertainty in U.K. Seismic Hazard Analysis
Uncertainty in seismic hazard analysis arises out of the intrinsic variability of seismological parameters and also the dearth of knowledge and understanding of earthquake activity. For regions of the world su...
