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Open AccessCorrection to: Near‑global summer circulation response to the spring surface temperature anomaly in Tibetan Plateau –– the GEWEX/LS4P first phase experiment
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Open AccessRemote effects of Tibetan Plateau spring land temperature on global subseasonal to seasonal precipitation prediction and comparison with effects of sea surface temperature: the GEWEX/LS4P Phase I experiment
The prediction skill for precipitation anomalies in late spring and summer months—a significant component of extreme climate events—has remained stubbornly low for years. This paper presents a new idea that ut...
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Open AccessNear-global summer circulation response to the spring surface temperature anomaly in Tibetan Plateau –– the GEWEX/LS4P first phase experiment
Subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of droughts and floods is one of the major challenges of weather and climate prediction. Recent studies suggest that the springtime land surface temperature/subsurface ...
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Open AccessAssessment of seasonal forecasting errors of the ECMWF system in the eastern Indian Ocean
The interannual variability of the Equatorial Eastern Indian Ocean (EEIO) is highly relevant for the climate anomalies on adjacent continents and affects global teleconnection patterns. Yet, this is an area wh...
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Open AccessHow to choose credible ensemble members for the sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction of precipitation?
The sub-seasonal to seasonal (S2S) prediction of precipitation is not only a hot topic but also a challenge. The traditional ensemble mean and ensemble probabilistic forecast methods cannot avoid the uncertain...
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Open AccessAn extratropical window of opportunity for subseasonal prediction of East Asian summer surface air temperature
Previous studies suggest that boreal summer intraseasonal variations along the subtropical westerly jet (SJ), featuring quasi-biweekly periodicity, frequently modulate downstream subseasonal variations over Ea...
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Open AccessAn anomalous warm-season trans-Pacific atmospheric river linked to the 2021 western North America heatwave
Atmospheric rivers are long and narrow bands of enhanced water vapour transport concentrated in the lower troposphere. Many studies have documented the important role of cold-season atmospheric rivers in produ...
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Prediction and predictability of tropical intraseasonal convection: seasonal dependence and the Maritime Continent prediction barrier
Prediction and predictability of tropical intraseasonal convection in the WMO subseasonal to seasonal (S2S) forecast database is assessed using the real-time OLR based MJO (ROMI) index. ROMI prediction skill i...
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Global evaluation of atmospheric river subseasonal prediction skill
Subseasonal-to-Seasonal (S2S) forecasts of weather and climate extremes are being increasingly demanded by water resource managers, operational forecasters, and other users in the applications community. This ...
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Open AccessThe sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) and the prediction of extreme events
The sub-seasonal to seasonal prediction project (S2S) is a 5-year project, established in 2013 by the World Weather Research Program (WWRP) and the World Climate Research Program (WCRP). This paper briefly des...
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Open AccessSummary of workshop on sub-seasonal to seasonal predictability of extreme weather and climate
This paper provides a summary of the Workshop on Sub-Seasonal to Seasonal (S2S) Predictability of Extreme Weather and Climate, held at Columbia University, December 6–7, 2016. The 2-day workshop was attended b...
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Open AccessSampling variability and the changing ENSO–monsoon relationship
The impact of sampling variability on the correlation between all-India rainfall (AIR) and the El Niño-Southern Oscillation is investigated in a large ensemble of seasonal climate simulations made using the Eu...
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Open AccessImpact of springtime Himalayan–Tibetan Plateau snowpack on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon in coupled seasonal forecasts
The springtime snowpack over the Himalayan–Tibetan Plateau (HTP) region and Eurasia has long been suggested to be an influential factor on the onset of the Indian summer monsoon. To assess the impact of realis...
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Understanding and modelling extra-tropical teleconnections with the Indo-Pacific region during the northern winter
Teleconnections originated by anomalous heat sources over the tropical Indo-Pacific oceans are investigated in this paper comparing observational results with numerical simulations run as part of the re-foreca...
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Objective verifications and false alarm analyses of western North Pacific tropical cyclone event forecasts by the ECMWF 32-day ensemble
An objective tropical cyclone (TC) track analog verification technique has been developed to select all ensemble storm tracks predicted by the ECMWF 32-day ensemble that match the overall Joint Typhoon Warning...
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ECMWF seasonal forecast system 3 and its prediction of sea surface temperature
The latest operational version of the ECMWF seasonal forecasting system is described. It shows noticeably improved skill for sea surface temperature (SST) prediction compared with previous versions, particular...
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Evaluation of the ECMWF 32-day ensemble predictions during 2009 season of western North Pacific tropical cyclone events on intraseasonal timescales
The performance of the ECMWF 32-day ensemble predictions of western North Pacific tropical cyclone events (formation plus track) made once a week during the 2009 season is evaluated with the same procedures as...
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Predictability of tropical cyclone events on intraseasonal timescales with the ECMWF monthly forecast model
The objective of this study is to provide evidence of predictability on intraseasonal time scales (10–30 days) for western North Pacific tropical cyclone formation and subsequent tracks using the 51-member ECM...
