78 Result(s)
within
Alessandro Vespignani
-
Article
Open AccessThe decline of the 2022 Italian mpox epidemic: Role of behavior changes and control strategies
In 2022, a global outbreak of mpox occurred, predominantly impacting men who have sex with men (MSM). The rapid decline of this epidemic is yet to be fully understood. We investigated the Italian outbreak by m...
-
Article
Open AccessThe unequal effects of the health–economy trade-off during the COVID-19 pandemic
Despite the global impact of the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, the question of whether mandated interventions have similar economic and public health effects as spontaneous behavioural change remains unre...
-
Article
Open AccessEvaluation of the US COVID-19 Scenario Modeling Hub for informing pandemic response under uncertainty
Our ability to forecast epidemics far into the future is constrained by the many complexities of disease systems. Realistic longer-term projections may, however, be possible under well-defined scenarios that s...
-
Article
Open AccessRapid review and meta-analysis of serial intervals for SARS-CoV-2 Delta and Omicron variants
The serial interval is the period of time between symptom onset in the primary case and symptom onset in the secondary case. Understanding the serial interval is important for determining transmission dynamics...
-
Article
Open AccessEstimating the impact of COVID-19 vaccine inequities: a modeling study
Access to COVID-19 vaccines on the global scale has been drastically hindered by structural socio-economic disparities. Here, we develop a data-driven, age-stratified epidemic model to evaluate the effects of ...
-
Article
Open AccessForecasting hospital-level COVID-19 admissions using real-time mobility data
For each of the COVID-19 pandemic waves, hospitals have had to plan for deploying surge capacity and resources to manage large but transient increases in COVID-19 admissions. While a lot of effort has gone int...
-
Article
Open AccessModel-based evaluation of alternative reactive class closure strategies against COVID-19
There are contrasting results concerning the effect of reactive school closure on SARS-CoV-2 transmission. To shed light on this controversy, we developed a data-driven computational model of SARS-CoV-2 transm...
-
Article
Open AccessCryptic transmission of SARS-CoV-2 and the first COVID-19 wave
Considerable uncertainty surrounds the timeline of introductions and onsets of local transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) globally1–7. Although a limited number of SARS-CoV...
-
Article
Open AccessGive more data, awareness and control to individual citizens, and they will help COVID-19 containment
The rapid dynamics of COVID-19 calls for quick and effective tracking of virus transmission chains and early detection of outbreaks, especially in the “phase 2” of the pandemic, when lockdown and other restric...
-
Article
Integrating explanation and prediction in computational social science
Computational social science is more than just large repositories of digital data and the computational methods needed to construct and analyse them. It also represents a convergence of different fields with d...
-
Article
Open AccessAuthor Correction: Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China
-
Article
Open AccessEstimating the effect of social inequalities on the mitigation of COVID-19 across communities in Santiago de Chile
We study the spatio-temporal spread of SARS-CoV-2 in Santiago de Chile using anonymized mobile phone data from 1.4 million users, 22% of the whole population in the area, characterizing the effects of non-phar...
-
Article
Open AccessThe effect of eviction moratoria on the transmission of SARS-CoV-2
Massive unemployment during the COVID-19 pandemic could result in an eviction crisis in US cities. Here we model the effect of evictions on SARS-CoV-2 epidemics, simulating viral transmission within and among ...
-
Article
Open AccessAuthor Correction: Infectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China
A Correction to this paper has been published: https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-021-22487-4
-
Article
Open AccessInfectivity, susceptibility, and risk factors associated with SARS-CoV-2 transmission under intensive contact tracing in Hunan, China
Several mechanisms driving SARS-CoV-2 transmission remain unclear. Based on individual records of 1178 potential SARS-CoV-2 infectors and their 15,648 contacts in Hunan, China, we estimated key transmission pa...
-
Article
Open AccessInferring high-resolution human mixing patterns for disease modeling
Mathematical and computational modeling approaches are increasingly used as quantitative tools in the analysis and forecasting of infectious disease epidemics. The growing need for realism in addressing comple...
-
Article
Open AccessSurvey data and human computation for improved flu tracking
While digital trace data from sources like search engines hold enormous potential for tracking and understanding human behavior, these streams of data lack information about the actual experiences of those ind...
-
Article
Modelling the impact of testing, contact tracing and household quarantine on second waves of COVID-19
While severe social-distancing measures have proven effective in slowing the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic, second-wave scenarios are likely to emerge as restrictions are lifted. Here we integra...
-
Article
Modelling COVID-19
As the COVID-19 pandemic continues, mathematical epidemiologists share their views on what models reveal about how the disease has spread, the current state of play and what work still needs to be done.
-
Article
Phase transitions in information spreading on structured populations
Mathematical models of social contagion that incorporate networks of human interactions have become increasingly popular, however, very few approaches have tackled the challenges of including complex and reali...
