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Improved tropical cyclone forecasts over north Indian Ocean with direct assimilation of AMSU-A radiances

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Abstract

The Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-Var) system are used to investigate the impact of the Advanced Microwave Sounding Unit-A (AMSU-A) radiances on the prediction of Indian Ocean tropical cyclones. Three tropical cyclones are selected for this study: cyclone Mala (April 2006; Bay of Bengal), cyclone Gonu (June 2007; Arabian Sea), and cyclone Sidr (November 2007; Bay of Bengal). For each case, observing system experiments are designed, by producing two sets of analyses from which forecasts are initialized. Both sets of analyses contain all conventional and satellite observations operationally used, including, but not limited to, Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) surface winds, Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I) surface winds, Meteosat-derived atmospheric motion vectors (AMVs), and differ only in the exclusion (CNT) or inclusion (EXP) of AMSU-A radiances. Results show that the assimilation of AMSU-A radiances changes the large-scale thermodynamic structure of the atmosphere, and also produce a stronger warm core. These changes cause large forecast track improvements. In particular, without AMSU-A assimilation, most forecasts do not produce landfall. On the contrary, the forecasts initialized from improved EXP analyses in which AMSU-A data are included produce realistic landfall. In addition, intensity forecast is also improved. Even if the analyzed cyclone intensity is not affected by the assimilation of AMSU-A radiances, the predicted intensity improves substantially because of the development of warm cores which, through creation of stronger gradients, helps the model in producing intense low centre pressure.

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Acknowledgments

WRF is made publicly available and supported by the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR). Their dedication and hard work is gratefully acknowledged. The authors gratefully acknowledge useful discussions, regarding the radiance assimilation in WRF model, with Dr. Zhiquan Liu, NCAR, USA. The authors would like to acknowledge the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP; ftp://ftpprd.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/com/gfs/prod/) and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF; http://data-portal.ecmwf.int/data/d/macc_reanalysis/) for making analysis data available at their site. The AMSU-A radiances and conventional data were obtained from ftp.dss.ucar.edu. The AIRS data were obtained from http://mirador.gsfc.nasa.gov. AMSRE and SSM/I data are produced by Remote Sensing Systems (www.remss.com). We express our sincere thanks to anonymous reviewers for theirs valuable comments and suggestions for improving the quality of the paper.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Atmospheric Sciences Division, Meteorology and Oceanography Group, Space Applications Centre (ISRO), Ahmedabad, 380015, India

    Randhir Singh, C. M. Kishtawal, P. K. Pal & P. C. Joshi

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  1. Randhir Singh
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  2. C. M. Kishtawal
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  3. P. K. Pal
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  4. P. C. Joshi
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Correspondence to Randhir Singh.

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Singh, R., Kishtawal, C.M., Pal, P.K. et al. Improved tropical cyclone forecasts over north Indian Ocean with direct assimilation of AMSU-A radiances. Meteorol Atmos Phys 115, 15–34 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-011-0165-5

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