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Assimilation of the multisatellite data into the WRF model for track and intensity simulation of the Indian Ocean tropical cyclones

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Abstract

Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF-ARW) model and its three-dimensional variational data assimilation (3D-Var) system are used to investigate the impact of the Quick Scatterometer (QuikSCAT) near surface winds, Special Sensor Microwave/Imager (SSM/I)-derived Total Precipitable Water (TPW), and Meteosat-7-derived Atmospheric Motion Vectors (AMVs) on the track and intensity prediction of tropical cyclones over the North Indian Ocean. The case of tropical cyclone, Gonu (June 2007; Arabian Sea), is first tested and the results show significant improvements particularly due to the assimilation of QuikSCAT winds. Three other cases, cyclone Mala (April 2006; Bay of Bengal), Orissa super cyclone (October 1999; Bay of Bengal), and Very Severe Cyclonic storm (October 1999; Bay of Bengal), are then examined. The prediction of cyclone tracks improved significantly with the assimilation of QuikSCAT winds. The track improvement resulted from the relocation of the initial cyclonic vortices after the assimilation of QuikSCAT wind vectors. After the assimilation of QuikSCAT winds, the mean (for four cyclone cases) track errors for first, second, and third day forecasts are reduced to 72, 101, and 166 km, respectively, from 190, 250, and 381 km of control (without QuikSCAT winds) runs. The assimilation of QuikSCAT winds also shows positive impact on the intensity (in terms of maximum surface level winds) prediction particularly for those cyclones, which are at their initial stages of the developments at the time of data assimilation. The assimilation of SSM/I TPW has significant influence (negative and positive) on the cyclone track. In three of the four cases, the assimilation of the SSM/I TPW resulted in drying of lower troposphere over cyclonic region. This decrease of moisture in TPW assimilation experiment resulted in reduction of cyclonic intensity. In three of the four cyclones, the assimilation of Meteosat-7 AMVs shows negative impact on the track prediction.

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Acknowledgments

WRF made publicly available and supported by the Mesoscale and Microscale Meteorology Division at the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR), USA. Their dedication and hard work is gratefully acknowledged. The authors would like to acknowledge the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) for making analysis data available at their site. The Meteosat AMVs were obtained from Eumetsat (http://www.archive.eumetsat.org). The SSM/I and QuikSCAT data were obtained from ftp://ftp.ssmi.com.

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  1. Atmospheric Sciences Division, Meteorology and Oceanography Group, Space Applications Centre (ISRO), Ahmedabad, 380015, India

    Randhir Singh, C. M. Kishtawal, P. K. Pal & P. C. Joshi

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  1. Randhir Singh
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  2. C. M. Kishtawal
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  3. P. K. Pal
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  4. P. C. Joshi
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Correspondence to Randhir Singh.

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Responsible editor: J. Fasullo.

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Singh, R., Kishtawal, C.M., Pal, P.K. et al. Assimilation of the multisatellite data into the WRF model for track and intensity simulation of the Indian Ocean tropical cyclones. Meteorol Atmos Phys 111, 103–119 (2011). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-011-0127-y

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