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Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Iran: an Environmental Input-Output Approach

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Abstract

The COVID-19 pandemic has had both direct and indirect impacts on the environment. One of the most significant effects of this pandemic has been the reduction in the utilization of natural resources, particularly fossil fuels, within Iran’s major economic sectors. Given Iran’s commitment to the Paris Agreement of 2015, it becomes crucial for policymakers and planners to assess the changes in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, particularly in the post-COVID-19 context, seen as a supply shock. This assessment aids in better formulating climate change policies in Iran. To estimate these variations, we have employed the Environmental Partial Hypothetical Extraction method to determine which economic activities have played the most significant role in reducing emissions after the removal of supply capacity and the extent to which they have contributed to GHG reduction, including carbon dioxide (CO2), nitrogen oxide (N2O), and methane (CH4). We utilized Iran’s input-output table from 2016 to model three distinct lockdown scenarios: a low-risk scenario with a 50% reduction in production capacity, a medium-risk scenario with a 70% loss of supply capacity, and a high-risk scenario involving the complete cessation of activities. The findings of this study reveal that GHG emissions have decreased across all economic sectors in all scenarios, both in absolute and in relative terms. In terms of absolute results, the agriculture sector exhibits the most substantial reduction in CO2 emissions in the low-risk scenario, while the transportation sector leads in reducing N2O and CH4 emissions under the same scenario. In the medium-risk scenario, the industrial sector achieves the most significant reduction in CO2 emissions, whereas the transportation sector experiences the highest decrease in N2O emissions. In the high-risk scenario, the electricity sector demonstrates the greatest reduction in CO2 emissions, while the transportation sector sees the most significant reductions in N2O and CH4 emissions. In relative emission terms, the electricity sector stands out with a 98.6% reduction in N2O emissions.

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Data Availability

I do not analyze or generate any datasets, because my work proceeds within a mathematical approach.

Notes

  1. Equation (11) allows us to measure the absolute values of GHG emissions. Nevertheless, we can also present the results in terms of relative values to offer an alternative perspective for policymaking. These estimations, following the introduction of COVID-19 pandemic scenarios, will be elaborated upon in detail. Furthermore, it is worth noting that incorporating these environmental coefficients into the HEM model has not been previously addressed in the existing literature.

  2. In some studies, such as the one conducted by Giammetti et al., [25] the classification of activities is not solely based on the percentage of closures. Instead, activities are categorized into three groups: low-risk activities [26], including healthcare; medium-risk activities, such as wholesale and retail; and high-risk activities, like hotels and restaurants. However, in our study, due to the number of activities and the lack of information regarding the greenhouse gas classification across diverse economic sectors, we have considered a uniform closure scenario for all sectors with varying percentages.

  3. This study encountered several limitations. Firstly, there was insufficient information available regarding greenhouse gas emissions categorized according to the ISIC classification. This categorization would have enabled a broader discussion of the scenario results within Iran’s economy. Secondly, data on other greenhouse gases were not accessible at the level of the examined economic activities.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Energy Economics, Agriculture and Environment, Faculty of Economics, Allameh Tabataba’i University, Tehran, Iran

    Ali Faridzad

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Faridzad, A. Impact of COVID-19 Pandemic on Greenhouse Gas Emissions in Iran: an Environmental Input-Output Approach. Emiss. Control Sci. Technol. 9, 200–211 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40825-023-00231-2

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