Abstract
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) has been the third leading cause of death worldwide. As the traditional risk factors (like smoking and ambient air pollution) on the burden of COPD being well characterized, the burden of COPD due to non-optimal temperature has been widely concerned. In this study, we extracted the relevant burden data of COPD attributable to non-optimal temperature from GBD 2019 and adopted estimated annual percent changes, Gaussian process regression (GPR), and age-period-cohort model to evaluate the spatiotemporal patterns, relationships with socio-demographic level, and the independent effects of age, period and cohort from 1990 to 2019. In brief, the global COPD burden attributable to non-optimal temperatures showed declining trends but was still more severe in the elderly, males, Asia, and regions with low socio-demographic index (SDI). And cold had a greater burden than heat. The inverted U-shape is expected for the relationship between SDI and the burden of COPD caused by non-optimal temperatures according to the GPR model, with the inflection point around SDI 0.45. Besides, the improvements were observed in period and cohort effects but were relatively limited in low and low-middle SDI regions. Public health managers should execute more targeted programs to lessen this burden predominantly among lower SDI countries.
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Data availability
The data source of this study is available in the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME): VizHub—GBD Results (healthdata.org).
Abbreviations
- COPD:
-
Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease
- GBD:
-
Global Burden of Diseases
- DALYs:
-
Disability-adjusted life years
- ASMR:
-
Age-standardized mortality rate
- ASDR:
-
Age-standardized DALY rate
- SDI:
-
Socio-demographic index
- TMREL:
-
Theoretical minimum risk exposure level
- ASR:
-
Age-standardized rate
- EAPC:
-
Estimated annual percentage change
- GPR model:
-
Gaussian process regression model
- APC model:
-
Age-period-cohort model
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Acknowledgements
We appreciate the works of the Global Burden of Disease study 2019 collaborators so that we could get access to the data.
Funding
The study was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China [grant number 82173626] and the Health Commission of Hubei Province scientific research project [grant number WJ2019H304].
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Study design: Chuanhua Yu; data collection: Jianjun Bai; data analyses: Jianjun Bai; result visualization: Jianjun Bai and Jiaxin Cui; result interpretations: all authors; manuscript writing: Jianjun Bai and Jiaxin Cui; manuscript revising: Jianjun Bai and Jiaxin Cui and Chuanhua Yu.
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The data was collected from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019 (https://ghdx.healthdata.org/gbd-2019), an online source: therefore, ethical approval is not applicable.
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Bai, J., Cui, J. & Yu, C. Burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease attributable to non-optimal temperature from 1990 to 2019: a systematic analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 68836–68847 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-27325-2
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-27325-2