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Imbalanced Sex Ratios and Violent Victimization in Mexico

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Abstract

The migration of young men from Mexico to the United States generates a deficit of men and a relative abundance of women in many Mexican communities, but the implications of this imbalanced sex ratio for Mexicans’ risks of criminal victimization has received little attention. We merge individual-level data from 19,551 inhabitants of 136 municipalities covered in the 2002 Mexican Family Life Survey with aggregated data from the 2000 Mexico population census to examine the association between the municipality-level percentage of men at ages 15 to 39 and self-reports of recent violent victimization. Multilevel logistic regression modeling reveals a curvilinear relationship between percent male and the likelihood of experiencing a violent victimization, with victimization risks lowest in municipalities characterized by either unusually low or unusually high numbers of men. Respondents residing in municipalities having a more balanced sex composition experience the highest risk of victimization. The risk of experiencing a violent victimization also varies sharply by age, gender, socioeconomic status, and community characteristics.

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Notes

  1. Over 90% of the incidents fall in the category of “robbery or assault.” The infrequency of other forms of violent offense precludes disaggregation by type of incident.

  2. Online Appendix Table A1 replicates the Table 3 regression models substituting the percent male at ages 15 to 59 for the percent male at ages 15 to 39.

  3. Although it is possible that the MxFLS respondents underreport incidents of violent victimization, we do not consider this missing data in the conventional sense.

  4. Although not technically belonging to a border state, Loreto in Baja California Sur could also be included in this list.

  5. With a value on percent male almost two percentage points higher than the next highest value, La Colorada could be considered an outlier on percent male (Table 1). However, as shown in Online Appendix Table A2 the regression estimates are not affected by the exclusion of respondents living in this municipality.

  6. Online Appendix Table A3 estimates Models 3 and 4 of Table 3 omitting the square of percent male. The coefficient for percent male is small and statistically nonsignificant.

  7. Online Appendix Table A4 estimates the models in Table 3 separately for the women and men MxFLS respondents.

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  1. Department of Sociology, Center for Social and Demographic Analysis, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY, 12222, USA

    Scott J. South & Katherine Trent

  2. Department of Sociology, University at Albany, State University of New York, Albany, NY, 12222, USA

    Soo** Han

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South, S.J., Han, S. & Trent, K. Imbalanced Sex Ratios and Violent Victimization in Mexico. Popul Res Policy Rev 41, 843–864 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-021-09667-2

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