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Seismic loss assessment of residential buildings in Karaj, Iran, by considering near-source effects using stochastic finite-fault approach

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Abstract

This paper presents the results of a study carried out to assess the probable seismic loss, in terms of damage to residential buildings, in the case of the west segment of the North Tehran Fault (NTF) seismic scenario in Karaj, Iran. Accordingly, it is crucial to first properly estimate the ground motion intensities. However, most of empirical ground motion prediction equations are poorly constrained at short ranges, and the data may only partially account for the rupture process. Hence, the stochastic finite-fault method with dynamic corner frequency was applied. This is an appropriate tool for addressing source, path, and near-source effects. It is noted that this method is dependent on many parameters which should be properly tuned. Thus, a set of sensitivity analyzes for the hypocenter locations and the quality factors were performed. The results from the simulations were used to develop a curve for estimating the ground motion values. Then, a high-quality building exposure model composed of 26 building classes based on the most recent census data was compiled. Finally, by applying appropriate fragility curves, damages to buildings from potential earthquakes were assessed. The outcomes showed that the mean damage ratio for the whole of the city is about 18.2% ± 5.3. In addition, a disaggregation analysis is done to identify the most vulnerable building types. The results showed that adobe and low-quality masonry buildings contribute the most to loss. The findings from this study can be used to provide risk reduction plans in Karaj.

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Data availability and materials

The most important data used in the present study are the earthquake catalog which is available in the public domain at https://irsc.ut.ac.ir.

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Acknowledgements

This paper presents some parts of the results of a project carried out at the International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) in Tehran. The financial and technical support provided by this institute is highly appreciated. The authors would also like to express their gratitude to all individuals and organizations who contributed to compiling the data sets used in this study, with special thanks to the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI) for providing the building inventories database. The authors gratefully appreciate all those individuals and organizations contributing to the compiling data sets used in the present study, particularly the International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES) for providing the VS30 map of Karaj.

Funding

The authors declare that no funds, grants, or other support were received during the preparation of this manuscript.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Geological Survey of Iran (GSI), Meraj Avenue, Azadi Square, Tehran, Iran

    Reza Alikhanzadeh

  2. Institute of Geophysics, University of Tehran, Tehran, Iran

    Nazila Kheirkhah

  3. K. N. Toosi, University of Technology, Tehran, Iran

    Mohsen Kalantari

  4. International Institute of Earthquake Engineering and Seismology (IIEES), No. 21, Arghavan St., North Dibajee, Farmanieh, Tehran, Iran

    Erfan Firuzi

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  1. Reza Alikhanzadeh
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  2. Nazila Kheirkhah
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation and data collection were performed by all authors. Earthquake simulation and sensitivity analysis was performed by Reza Alikhanzadeh. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Erfan Firuzi and the other authors commented on the manuscript. All authors read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Erfan Firuzi.

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Appendix

Appendix

The time-history waveforms and their corresponding pseudo-response acceleration at five sample points (depicted in Fig. 3 by black triangles) for different hypocenter scenarios.

See Figs. 20, 21, 22 and 23.

Fig. 20
figure 20

The time-history waveforms and their corresponding pseudo-response acceleration at five sample points for the H1 hypocenter scenario (from top to bottom: P1, P2, P3, P4, and P5)

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Fig. 21
figure 21

The time-history waveforms and their corresponding pseudo-response acceleration at five sample points for the H2 hypocenter scenario (from top to bottom: P1, P2, P3, P4, and P5)

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Fig. 22
figure 22

The time-history waveforms and their corresponding pseudo-response acceleration at five sample points for the H3 hypocenter scenario (from top to bottom: P1, P2, P3, P4, and P5)

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Fig. 23
figure 23

The time-history waveforms and their corresponding Pseudo response acceleration at five sample points for random hypocenter scenario (from top to bottom: P1, P2, P3, P4, and P5)

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Alikhanzadeh, R., Kheirkhah, N., Kalantari, M. et al. Seismic loss assessment of residential buildings in Karaj, Iran, by considering near-source effects using stochastic finite-fault approach. Nat Hazards 120, 3319–3347 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11069-023-06328-9

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