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“Does climate change influence conflicts? Evidence for the Cameroonian regions”

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Abstract

The objective of this article is to analyze the influence of climate change on the occurrence of conflicts in the crisis regions of Cameroon. To achieve this, we use the two-way fixed effects method on data ranging from 2000 to 2021. The main results show that climate change directly increases conflicts during relatively warm periods and/or with less precipitation. Moreover, through the channel of the marginal effects of food price volatility and deforestation, we show that climate change indirectly influences conflicts. Thus, in order to reduce the risk of conflict in Cameroon, it is recommended that measures be put in place to mitigate or adapt to the adverse effects of climate change. Specifically, we recommend the protection of the forest, through the fight against deforestation in humid regions, and the promotion of reforestation in arid areas. Furthermore, we propose to stabilize food prices at the local level in the short and long term, in order to cope with price fluctuations at the global market level. In the short term, we propose a storage mechanism for various foodstuffs during periods of low prices, and in the long term, we propose a structural transformation of the Cameroonian economy, through the acceleration of the process of import substitution or local production as foreseen by the National Development Strategy of Cameroon (NDS30).

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Fig. 1

Source author’s construction, based on data from the Terra climate dataset (2021) and ACLED (2021)

Fig. 2

Source author’s construction

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Data availability

All data and material used are in the public domain.

Notes

  1. As in Minot (2014), it is necessary to calculate the difference type of the yield noted σ (r) with r = log (Pt/Pt − 1), and Pt and Pt − 1, the prices for the period t and t − 1.

  2. F (21, 125) = 7.89, Prob > F = 0.0000.

  3. We estimate the probit for two reasons: (1) the dichotomous nature of the endogenous variable (CSI); (2) the Skewness and Kurtosis normality test (Appendix 3), validates the normality of our sample.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Economics and Management Research Center (CEREG). Quantitative Techniques Department, Faculty of Economics and Management (FSEG), University of Yaoundé II, BP, 1365, Yaoundé, Cameroon

    Ateba Boyomo Henri Aurélien

  2. Center for Studies and Research in Management and Economics, Faculty of Economics and Management (FSEG), University of Dschang, Dschang, Cameroun

    Ongo Nkoa Bruno Emmanuel

  3. Center for Studies and Research in Management and Economics (CEREG), Department of Monetary and Banking Economy, Faculty of Economics and Management (FSEG), University of Yaoundé II, Yaoundé, Cameroon

    Mougnol A Ekoula Hervé William

  4. University of N’Djamena, N’Djamena, Chad

    Mamadou Asngar Thierry

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  1. Ateba Boyomo Henri Aurélien
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Correspondence to Ateba Boyomo Henri Aurélien.

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Appendices

Appendix 1

Descriptive statistics and analyzes of the correlation between the variables of the model (see Tables 7, 8).

Table 7 Statistical descriptive variables
Full size table
Table 8 Matrix of correlation of variables of the model
Full size table

Appendix 2

Area of study. List of regions: North, far north, Littoral, South west, North West, Centre, West.

Appendix 2.1

Study area (map with number of deaths related to conflict).

figure a

Sources ACLED (2021).

Appendix 2.2

Map with number of incidents related to conflict.

figure b

Sources: ACLED (2021).

Appendix 3

Evolution of temperature, precipitation and conflict in Cameroon regions.

figure c

Source: Author’s construction.

Appendix 4

Test of normality of sample.

Variable

Obs

Pr(skewness)

Pr(kurtosis)

AdJoint

test

chi2(2)

Prob > chi2

res

154

0.1285

0.8327

2.39

0.3024

Source: Author’s construction.

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Henri Aurélien, A.B., Bruno Emmanuel, O.N., Hervé William, M.A.E. et al. “Does climate change influence conflicts? Evidence for the Cameroonian regions”. GeoJournal 88, 3595–3613 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10708-023-10824-7

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