Can the Middle East-North Africa region mitigate the rise of its food import dependency under climate change?

Abstract

The dependence on imports of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region for its food needs has increased steadily since the early 1960s, from 10% to about 40%. This import dependence could continue to rise in coming decades due to the projected MENA population growth and the expected negative impacts of climate change on the region’s natural resources and agricultural performances. To what extent the food import dependency of the MENA region will continue to increase up to 2050 and how the region could mitigate its rising reliance on food imports is both a key question for the region itself and a crucial geopolitical issue for the world as a whole. In this paper, we use a biomass balance model to assess the level of the food import dependency of the MENA region in 2050 resulting from six scenarios. We show that under current trends and severe impacts of climate change the food import dependency of the MENA would continue to rise and reach 50% in 2050. Maghreb would be particularly affected becoming dependent on imports for almost 70% of its food needs. Adopting a Mediterranean diet, reaching faster productivity growth in agriculture or reducing waste and loss along the food chain would contribute to decelerate the rise of the MENA’s food import dependency. However, only the combination of these three options could significantly offset the increased import dependency in the most affected sub-regions: Maghreb, the Middle and the Near East. In all scenarios, Turkey strengthens its position as a net exporter of agricultural products.

Introduction

The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region¹ is characterized by both a high percentage of arid and semi-arid lands with low agricultural productivity (Nin Pratt et al. 2018) and a rapid demographic expansion with a population that has increased from about 140 million in the early 1960s to over 500 million in 2020 (UN 2019). As a result of both factors, the agricultural import dependency of the MENA region has increased dramatically since the 1960s: the MENA import dependency rate (measured as the percentage of kilocalories consumed supplied by imports) rose from 10 in 1961 to 40% in 2011 (Marty et al. 2018).

The region’s population growth combined with the evolution of eating habits that economic development, rapid urbanization and food price policies involve have led to an increased demand for food and other agricultural products. In the MENA region, these dietary changes include a steady nutritional transition while certain features of the previous Mediterranean diet are maintained. On the one hand, according to FAO data, daily caloric availability has increased sharply, reaching 3200 to 3700 kcal/cap/day on average, with a significant increase in the proportion of vegetable oils and sugary foods in the diet (Marty et al. 2018). On the other hand, changes in dietary habits differ from the “Western” model in the extremely low amount of animal foods consumed (which has levelled out at 10% of caloric intake) (Marty et al. 2018). These trends have led to a sixfold increase in regional demand for agricultural products over a period of 50 years.

Although crop production in the region has increased dramatically (fourfold in 50 years), it has been unable to keep pace with these changing demographics and food requirements. For cereal crops in particular, significant and lasting yield gains have been achieved only in Turkey and Egypt. The Middle East, the Near East and the Maghreb remain well behind in terms of cereal yields and output, with the Maghreb and the Near East also experiencing high inter-annual variability in terms of yields. Furthermore, the shifts in animal production (especially the emergence of intensive poultry operations) have led to a reduction in grassland and a weakening of the region’s pastoral tradition, in addition to the increase in demand for feed crops, like maize and soybeans (Marty et al. 2018).

Consequently, the region’s food import dependency has increased significantly and the MENA region has become one of the most central actors of international agricultural and food trade (Nigatu and Motamed 2015), even if sub-regions face different situations. Over the last 50 years, the Maghreb and the Middle East saw their levels of import dependency respectively increase from 10 to 54% and from 15 to 50%. In the Near East, where import dependency already stood at 40% at the beginning of the period, a similar 50% level was reached by 2011. Egypt shows lower levels of agricultural import dependence, but nevertheless moved from 10 to 30% over the same time period. Turkey is the only exception within the region, with a historically low agricultural import dependency that has reached 10% only in the past few years.

In addition, the MENA region is considered as a climatic hotspot where the effects of a rise in global temperatures could be amplified: regional increase in temperature are likely to be higher than global averages, more intense and more frequent extreme heat events, increased aridity due to higher evaporation, increased scarcity of rainfall, increased drought risk and the multiplication of periods of drought (Hare et al. 2011; Waha et al. 2017; IPCC 2019). Potential consequences of these evolutions on the adaptation conditions of local agriculture are many: water supply, salinization, soil erosion, lower yields, etc. (Iglesias et al. 2011; Bucchignani et al. 2018; IPCC 2019; Namdar et al. 2021). Many of these issues already exist in the region, but accelerated climate change will likely exacerbate them. These additional constraints could make the gap even larger between demand for agri-food goods and regional supply, by limiting the yield increase and by reducing already limited cultivable land areas.

Hence, due to the limitation of the domestic production potential, the food import dependency of the MENA region could continue to increase during the next decades (Jobbins and Henley 2015) and become a key challenge for the MENA region itself, but also for the world as a whole. As the MENA region has become a big player on world food markets, an increase in its import volumes is likely to contribute to upward pressures on food prices, and thus a potential deterioration in food access for the poorest in the MENA and in the rest of the world as well.

For the MENA countries themselves, relying increasingly on agricultural imports has ambiguous consequences. On the one hand, in arid and semi-arid countries, importing water-intensive foods may be a consistent way to make food more affordable to domestic consumers. Indeed, in countries where improving agricultural productivity has a significant opportunity cost in terms of development of other sectors, investing in domestic agriculture may delay economic diversification and growth and in turn slow down the rise of income and purchasing power of food consumers (e.g. Allan 2001). In this sense, increasing agricultural import dependency would contribute to MENA countries’ food security. On the other hand, by increasing their agricultural import dependency, MENA countries exacerbate their exposure to price shocks in global food markets, be these shocks provoked by a global economic and financial crisis (like in 2008–2011), or a disruption of supply chains (as observed during the COVID 19 pandemics) or a political or geopolitical crisis affecting any part of the world (as the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine perfectly shows). In this sense, increasing agricultural import dependency would rather weaken MENA countries’ food security (Sadler and Magnan 2011; Nigatu and Motamed 2015; Jobbins and Henley 2015; Nin Pratt et al. 2018; OECD/FAO 2018; Zolfaghari and Jariani 2021).

Obviously, the risks incurred by countries exhibiting a high rate of import dependency depend on their capacity to pay their agricultural imports, the sensitivity of their consumers to food price shocks and their capacity to mitigate the effects of price shocks on domestic consumers. Table SI1 (provided in Supporting information SI Macroeconomic indicators), reports for each MENA region and in average over 2018–2020, some macroeconomic indicators, including the GDP per capita, the current account balance and the agricultural trade balance. Numerous countries appear as very fragile as regards price fluctuations on world agricultural markets, with agricultural net imports accounting for more than 5% of their GDP, negative current account balance and low GDP per capita making their consumers very sensitive to food price shocks (e.g. Syria, West Bank and Gaza, Yemen and Algeria, Mauritania, Jordan and Lebanon). Only a few countries, either large oil exporters and/or more developed with higher GDP per capita, seem to be able to cope with price shocks on world agricultural markets (Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Israel, Turkey).

Therefore, most MENA countries are highly exposed to international markets fluctuations. Such fluctuations can quickly jeopardize their capacity to pay for their imports and supply their food system, deteriorate their budget balance and increase State debts. In such situations, recurrent food crises are likely and may induce social instability, riots, internal and international migration, and contribute to weaken political powers in place (Lagi et al.

Data Availability

https://entrepot.recherche.data.gouv.fr/dataset.xhtml?