Abstract
China has incorporated the principle of inclusive green growth from the initiation of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) in 2013. Inclusive green growth is a balanced pathway that benefits economy, society, and the environment. Recognizing the trade-offs between economy and environment, it becomes imperative to analyze the influence of BRI (China-integrated pre-post Belt and Road Initiative spillover) on fostering inclusive green growth. This research is investigating the moderating impact of BRI in enhancing the effects of tourism and Fintech on inclusive green growth (comprising social, economic, technological, and environmental dimensions). This research is utilizing panel econometrics data of 148 BRI countries from 2004 to 2021 (9 years before and after BRI initiation) by employing two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) approach, further endorsed by two-stage least square (2-SLS) technique. Outcomes reveal that the BRI region is on the path of inclusive green growth and BRI positively moderates the influence of tourism and Fintech on inclusive green growth. Control factors, such as institutional quality, KOF globalization index, and renewable energy to total energy ratio promote inclusive green growth, while urbanization, household consumption per capita, and socioeconomic conditions hinder the progress. The implications of this research are significant as it emphasis on the role of BRI in supporting tourism activities and exploring contemporary financial technologies. This study highlights that inclusive green growth and sustainable development goals (SDGs) share common objectives, so inclusive green growth would contribute to the accomplishment of SDGs. The proposed policy recommendations would serve as a valuable tool for specific stakeholders, tourism planners, institutions, legislators, urban planners, and environment ministries to achieve SDGs of 2030 (12. b, 8.8, and 14.7 are related to tourism, 17.1–17.8 are devoted to finance and technology, 16.8 is about institutional quality, 7.2 and 7.8 supports renewable energy usage, 11.3 is regarding urbanization, goal 1, 8.5, 15.9 and 17.15 are about socioeconomic conditions).
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Acknowledgements
We acknowledge Muhammad Kashif for the support.
Funding
The paper is supported by the liberal arts double world-class project of Huazhong University of Science and Technology (The major discipline platform construction Rural Development Research Center of Huazhong University of Science and Technology).
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Appendices
Appendix A: List of sample BRI countries
CC | Country |
|---|---|
1 | Afghanistan |
2 | Albania |
3 | Algeria |
4 | Angola |
5 | Antigua and Barbuda |
6 | Argentina |
7 | Armenia |
8 | Austria |
9 | Azerbaijan |
10 | Bangladesh |
11 | Bahrain |
12 | Barbados |
13 | Belarus |
14 | Benin |
15 | Bosnia and Herzegovina |
16 | Botswana |
17 | Bolivia |
18 | Brunei Darussalam |
19 | Bulgaria |
20 | Burundi |
21 | Cabo Verde |
22 | Cameroon |
23 | Chile |
24 | China |
25 | Cambodia |
26 | Chad |
27 | Cote d’Ivoire |
28 | Congo, Dem. Rep |
29 | Congo, Rep |
30 | Comoros |
31 | Cook Islands |
32 | Costa Rica |
33 | Croatia |
34 | Cuba |
35 | Cyprus |
36 | Czech Republic |
37 | Djibouti |
38 | Dominica |
39 | Dominican Republic |
40 | Ecuador |
41 | Egypt, Arab Rep |
42 | Eritrea |
43 | Estonia |
44 | Ethiopia |
45 | Fiji |
46 | Gabon |
47 | Gambia, The |
48 | Ghana |
49 | Georgia |
50 | Greece |
51 | Grenada |
52 | Guinea |
53 | Guinea-Bissau |
54 | Equatorial Guinea |
55 | Guyana |
56 | Hungary |
57 | Indonesia |
58 | Iran, Islamic Rep |
59 | Iraq |
60 | Italy |
61 | Jamaica |
62 | Kazakhstan |
63 | Kenya |
64 | Kiribati |
65 | Korea, Rep |
66 | Kuwait |
67 | Kyrgyz Republic |
68 | Lao PDR |
69 | Latvia |
70 | Lebanon |
71 | Lesotho |
72 | Lithuania |
73 | Liberia |
74 | Libya |
75 | Luxembourg |
76 | Madagascar |
77 | Maldives |
78 | North Macedonia |
79 | Mali |
80 | Malta |
81 | Mauritania |
82 | Malawi |
83 | Malaysia |
84 | Micronesia, Fed. Sts |
85 | Morocco |
86 | Moldova |
87 | Montenegro |
88 | Mongolia |
89 | Mozambique |
90 | Myanmar |
91 | Namibia |
92 | New Zealand |
93 | Nepal |
94 | Niger |
95 | Nigeria |
96 | Nicaragua |
97 | Niue |
98 | Oman |
99 | Pakistan |
100 | Panama |
101 | Papua New Guinea |
102 | Peru |
103 | Philippines |
104 | Poland |
105 | Portugal |
106 | Qatar |
107 | Romania |
108 | Russian Federation |
109 | Rwanda |
110 | Saudi Arabia |
111 | El Salvador |
112 | Samoa |
113 | Senegal |
114 | Seychelles |
115 | Singapore |
116 | Sierra Leone |
117 | Slovak Republic |
118 | Slovenia |
119 | Solomon Islands |
120 | Sri Lanka |
121 | Somalia |
122 | Serbia |
123 | South Sudan |
124 | South Africa |
125 | Suriname |
126 | Sudan |
127 | Syrian Arab Republic |
128 | Tajikistan |
129 | Tanzania |
130 | Thailand |
131 | Timor-Leste |
132 | Tonga |
133 | Togo |
134 | Trinidad and Tobago |
135 | Turkmenistan |
136 | Tunisia |
137 | Turkey |
138 | Uganda |
139 | Ukraine |
140 | United Arab Emirates |
141 | Uruguay |
142 | Uzbekistan |
143 | Venezuela, RB |
144 | Vietnam |
145 | Vanuatu |
146 | Yemen, Rep |
147 | Zambia |
148 | Zimbabwe |
Appendix B: Literature matrix
Sr# | References | Indicators (IV’s, DV’s and Moderating/Interaction Terms) | Theories | Methodology/Approach | Findings/Recommendations/Limitations |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | Kamran et al. (2023) | DV: Sustainable development; IV: Inclusive Growth | This study observes sustainable development and inclusive growth levels for 11 emerging economies for 2008 and 2018 | Principal Components Analysis, Multivariate Analysis | Indonesia and Pakistan show the lowest, while Turkey and China hold the highest level of inclusive growth. Pakistan and Brazil have the lowest, while Thailand and Cambodia have the highest rank of sustainable development |
2 | Ahmed et al. (2022) | DV: Green Growth; IV: Environmental technology, Banking Sector | This study measures the effect of environmental technology on green growth for China, USA, Russia, Japan, and India from 1990 to 2020 | PMG-ARDL and CS-ARDL methodologies | Environmental technology promotes green growth |
3 | Zhao et al. (2022) | DV: Economic growth (GDP); IV: Inclusive green growth (Labor, Capital, Resource, Technology) | This study measures the levels of inclusive green growth efficiency for China over the period 2000–2020 | Super Epsilon Based Measure model | Over the past 20 years, the inclusive green growth efficiency has improved in China. Significant differences were observed among interprovincial and regional inclusive green growth efficiency. Inclusive green growth and economic growth association are effected by Environmental Kuznets Curve |
4 | Zhang et al. (2022) | DV: High-quality tourism industry; IV: Inclusive green growth; Moderator: Import dependence | This study investigates the influence of inclusive green growth on the high-quality development of the tourism industry for 30 Chinese provinces from 2010 to 2019 | Durbin–Wu–Hausman (D-W–H) test for endogeneity, Entropy weight method model, Fixed effect estimation method and panel regression model | Inclusive green growth encourages the high-quality development of the tourism industry. Import dependence impact was observed negative |
5 | Zhou (2022) | DV: Inclusive green growth | This paper accesses inclusive green growth, its temporal characteristics and its spatial heterogeneity for 31 Chinese provinces from 2010 to 2019 | Generalized method of moments (GMM) | Economic development, green production and consumption, ecological environmental protection, and fair opportunities affect the inclusive green growth levels, but their development is not balanced. Inclusive green growth levels are different between regions and provinces. Inclusive green growth has significant spatial heterogeneity |
6 | Sun et al. (2022) | DV: Inclusive green growth | This study identifies the influencing factors that inhibit inclusive green growth levels in 30 Chinese provinces during 2008–2018 | TODIM method | Inclusive green growth levels were superior in the eastern provinces of China. In western provinces, it is affected by an income gap, economic output, and weaker green production and consumption. The population agglomerations and higher economic growth inhibit the inclusive green growth development in eastern and central provinces |
7 | Ren et al. (2022) | DV: Digital economy agglomeration; IV: Inclusive green growth | This study measures digital economy agglomeration influence on inclusive green growth for 282 cities in China during 2004–2019 | The SDID (spatial difference-in-differences) model was applied to analyze the policy effect. To calculate inclusive green growth, the SBM-DDF model and the global Malmquist–Luenberger index (GML) were used | Inclusive green growth is affected by digital economy agglomeration due to technological progress, energy consumption, environmental pollution, economic growth, human capital, and industrial structure. Recommendations: To measure inclusive green growth, education, health service, employment, and inequality can be used |
8 | Pardo Martínez and Cotte Poveda (2021) | DV: STI (Science, Technology and Innovation); IV: Green growth | This study analyzed the association among STI and green growth for Colombia over the period 2005 to 2017 | Generalized method of moments (GMM) | STI was observed crucial for green growth to achieve SDGs |
9 | Ofori et al. (2022) | DV: Energy efficiency; IV: Inclusive green growth; Moderator: Governance | This study measures how energy efficiency (EE) and governance affect inclusive green growth for 23 African countries from 2000 to 2020 | Generalized method of moments (GMM) | EE is not effectual for endorsing inclusive green growth. However, governance is effective for repackaging EE to stimulate inclusive green growth both directly and indirectly |
10 | Liu et al. (2021) | DV: Inclusive green growth | This study constructed an inclusive green growth index based on four dimensions: environment, economy, green production and consumption, and social opportunities for 58 cities from 2004 to 2017 | Kernel distribution, Dagum Gini coefficient (to calculate regional difference), Fixed-base range entropy weight method | Regional disparities and their convergences were analyzed and significant inequalities were observed in inclusive green growth between city clusters |
11 | Li et al. (2021) | DV: Inclusive green growth | This paper measures inclusive green growth by designing a four-dimensional (social inclusion, resource utilization, economic prosperity, and environmental sustainability) analysis framework for 37 countries of the Asia Pacific region | Factor analysis, Entropy method, Hierarchical analysis (AHP), Data envelopment analysis (DEA) | The level of inclusive green growth in the Asia–Pacific is affected due to economic growth |
12 | Juniardi et al. (2022) | DV: Inclusive green growth; IV: Industrialization, Inclusive human development, Crime, Regional financial performance, Infrastructure, Natural disasters | This study investigated the endogenous variables of inclusive green growth for 34 provinces of Indonesia from 2011 to 2019 | Panel data regression | Infrastructure, inclusive human development, natural disasters, and regional financial performance have a significant positive influence on inclusive green growth, while industrialization has a significant negative influence on inclusive green growth. However, the influence of crime was not significant |
13 | He and Du (2022) | DV: Urban land misallocation; IV: Inclusive green growth efficiency | This study measures the effects of urban land resource misallocation on inclusive green growth for 30 provinces of China over the period 2009–2018 | Global Malmquist–Luenberger (GML) index (to estimate inclusive green growth), Spatial panel regression model, Epsilon-based measure (EBM) model | The levels of inclusive green growth have an upward trend in China, and misallocation of land resources hinders inclusive green growth. In the Asia–Pacific region, inclusive green growth can be accelerated through reinforcing regional cooperation, economic development, and better institutional quality |
14 | He et al. (2022) | DV: GDP, Carbon dioxide; IV: Labor force, Capital stock, Energy consumption | This study explores the economic and environmental performance in 61 emerging economies of the BRI region from 2000 to 2017 | Distance functions | Annual average growth rate was 3.1% for green productivity. Green growth decelerated due to environmental performance. Recommendation: Emerging economies should promote sustainable development by sharing emission-reduction technologies |
15 | Hao et al. (2021) | DV: CO2 emissions; IV: Green growth | This study explores the influence of green growth on CO2 emissions of G7 economies during 1991–2017 | Cross-sectionally augmented autoregressive distributive lag (CS-ARDL) model | Green growth reduces CO2 emissions. Renewable energy, human capital, and environmental taxes boost environmental quality. However, GDP growth is the main cause of environmental depletion |
16 | Fan et al. (2023) | DV: Inclusive green growth | This study analyzes the urban inclusive green growth index (IGGI) and evaluates the spatiotemporal dynamics and regional differences for 282 cities in China from 2003 to 2020 | Spatial Durbin model | Chinese cities show trends of IGGI and imbalanced spatiotemporal dynamics. Up gradation of industrial structure, urban innovation, opening up, and human capital show a positive influence on urban IGGI. However, urban industrialization and government administrative capacity have a negative impact on urban IGGI |
17 | Desalegn and Tangl (2022) | DV: Inclusive green growth; IV: Green finance | This study summarizes and critically reviews 146 relevant articles to measure the impact of green finance on inclusive green growth | Methodological approach | Green finance is facing regulatory challenges. Poor green project management, low finance levels, risk and return trade-off, lack of expertise in assessing green project risks, and lack of analytical tools are a few causes of green financing gaps |
18 | Cao (2021) | DV: Inclusive green growth | This study analyzes the dynamic coupling inclusive green growth nexus in western Yangtze River Delta of China (16 cities) during 2009–2018 | Coupling coordination degree model (CCDM), Entropy weight approach (EWA), Obstacle factor diagnostic model (OFDM) | Low coupling coordination degree (CCD) and high performance of the inclusive green growth nexus were observed at provincial level |
19 | Liu and Qiu (2022) | DV: Sustainable development; IV: Low-carbon industries, Cultural and tourism industries (CTI) | This study analyzed the contribution of cultural and tourism industries (CTI) and low-carbon industries to the sustainable development of Zhenjiang City | Empirical data | 25% of total GDP (gross domestic product) has been accounted by CTI and it promotes the development of a low-carbon city. CTI-related employments are eradicating poverty to achieve SDGs |
20 | Lv et al. (2022) | DV: Ecological Sustainability; IV: Green technology, Tourism, Inclusive financial development | This study exhibits the association among financial development, green technological innovations, economic growth, sustainable tourism, and ecological sustainability for China during 2000–2019 | Quantile Autoregressive Distributive Lag (QARDL) approach | In the long run, tourism and green technology innovation reduces ecological footprints |
21 | Nguyen et al. (2021) | DV: Environmental sustainability; IV: Tourism, Institutional quality | This study determines the effect of tourism and institutional quality on environmental sustainability for 134 countries from 2002 to 2015 | Generalized method of moments (GMM) | Tourism degrades environmental sustainability. For environmental sustainability, there is a need to improve institutional quality. Good institutional quality can exacerbate the negative environmental effects of international tourism |
22 | Pauliukevičienė and Stankeviciene (2022) | DV: Fintech Industry; IV: Sustainable Development Goals | This study presents SDG indicators’ contribution to the development of sustainable Fintech industry by indicating the drivers of the sustainable Fintech industry | Multicriteria decision method Simple Additive Weighting (SAW) | In terms of Fintech, the sustainable development of Lithuania is great, followed by Estonia, Denmark, and Finland. Northern Europe is the most suitable region for the development of a sustainable Fintech industry |
23 | Jiang (2023) | DV: Sustainable Development; IV: Fintech | This study measures the influence of Fintech on sustainable development for renewable energy enterprises from 2009 to 2020 | OLS Method | Fintech promotes sustainable development |
24 | Parvez et al. (2023) | DV: Human development index; IV: Financial inclusion | This study highlights the effects of Fintech (including financial inclusion, institutional quality, and financial development) on inclusive growth of 25 emerging economies of Asia from 2014 to 2021 | Fixed effects and random effects models | Fintech level, financial inclusion, and institutional quality augment human development |
25 | Maleerat (2023) | DV: Green Growth; IV: Financial development, Financial technology | This study investigates the influence of financial development and financial technology on green growth for 25 high, upper-middle income countries from 2013 to 2021 | Generalized method of moment (GMM) | Green growth is not influenced by financial development, while it is strongly influenced by Fintech. Green growth is negatively affected by the interaction terms of financial development and Fintech |
26 | Huarng and Yu (2022) | DV: Fintech Adoption; IV: Technology, Economic development, Entrepreneurship, Innovation | This study analyzes the influence of innovation, technology, economic development, and entrepreneurship on Fintech adoption for 30 countries for the year 2020 and 28 countries for 2021 | Qualitative Comparative Analysis | The combination of high value of technology, innovation, economic development, and entrepreneurship leads to high Fintech adoption for both 2020 and 2021. Fintech adoption is prominent in developed countries |
27 | Hermanto et al. (2023) | DV: Revisit intention; IV: Guide performance, Digital payments adoption, Destination attachments | This study is exploring the drivers of tourist revisit intension by a survey from 294 tourists in Indonesia | Structural equation model with AMOS 7 | Visitor satisfaction is positively affected by digital payment adoption, destination attachments, and tour guide performance. The association among tour guide performance, destination attachment, and revisit intention is mediated by tourist satisfaction |
28 | Le and Bao (2020) | DV: Sustainable development; IV: Non-renewable and renewable energy | This study analyzes the influence of renewable and non-renewable energy consumption on sustainable development comprising capital, government expenditure, institutional quality, financial development, and trade openness for 16 Latin America and Caribbean Emerging Market and Develo** Economies (EMDEs) during 1990–2014 | MG and Common Correlated Effects MG (CCEMG) estimators, Augmented Mean Group (AMG) | Renewable and non-renewable energy usage, trade openness, government expenditure, gross fixed capital formation, and financial development, positively affect economic growth |
29 | Christoforidis and Katrakilidis (2021) | DV: Ecological Footprint; IV: Institutional Quality, Renewable and non-renewable energy | This study measures the influence of institutional quality and disaggregated energy sources on the ecological footprint for 29 OECD countries during 1984 to 2016 | Robust cross-sectional augmented distributed lag (CSDL) | Economic growth and non-renewable energy are harmful to the environment, while institutional quality adds to ecological sustainability |
30 | Adedoyin et al. (2021) | DV: Economic growth; IV: Tourism; Moderator: Institutional Quality | This study measures the moderating impact of institutional quality between tourism and economic growth from 2002 to 2017 | Generalized method of moments methodology | Tourism increases economic growth. However, governance reduces the influence of tourism on economic growth |
31 | Ali et al. (2022) | DV: Ecological Footprint; IV: Natural Resources, Financial Inclusion, Economic Growth, Urbanization, Economic Governance Institutions, Renewable Energy Consumption, Human Capital | This study shows the impact of natural resources, financial inclusion and economic governance institutions on the ecological footprint for ECOWAS countries from 1990 to 2016 | Common correlated effect mean group (CCEMG), Augmented mean group (AMG) | Natural resources, financial inclusion, economic growth, and urbanization increase ecological footprint, while economic governance institutions, renewable energy consumption, and human capital diminish the ecological footprint |
32 | DV: Renewable energy investments; IV: Governance, Trade openness | This study observes the nexus among governance, renewable energy investment, and trade openness for 51 BRI countries over the period 1996–2017 | Random-effects model, fixed-effect model, 2-SLS | In BRI countries, political stability, regulatory quality, corruption control, and the rule of law influence renewable energy investments | |
33 | Jianguo et al. (2022) | DV: Environment quality; IV: Financial development; Moderator: Institutional quality, Technological innovation | This study examines the impact of institution quality, technological innovation, and financial development on environmental quality for OECD nations during 1998 to 2018 | Two-step system-GMM | Financial development has a positive impact on carbon emissions. Institutional quality and technology innovation (as moderator) reduce CO2 emissions |
34 | Aslam et al. (2020) | DV: Inclusive Growth; IV: Institutional Quality, Social Inclusion, Digital Inclusion | This study observes the influence of institutional quality, social inclusion and digital inclusion in inclusive growth for 83 nations during 2010–2017 | Two-step system-GMM | Direct link was observed among institutional quality and inclusive growth for higher-income nations |
35 | Jiang et al. (2023) | DV: Green Growth; IV: Economic policy uncertainty, Institutional quality, Renewable energy | This study reveals the effect of economic policy uncertainty, institutional quality, and renewable energy on green growth for emerging seven (E-7) economies over the period 1996–2019 | Panel quantile regression (PQR) | Institutional quality and renewable energy enhance green growth, while economic policy uncertainty has a negative impact on green growth |
36 | Omri and Ben Mabrouk (2020) | DV: Sustainable development; IV: Governance | This study demonstrates the effectiveness of good governance in rebalancing the social, economic, and environmental components of sustainable development for 20 selected MENA countries from 1996 to 2014 | Simultaneous equation modeling approach | Governance and political and institutions positively contribute to the three pillars of sustainable development. Two-way linkage was observed among human development and economic growth. Economic growth spurs emissions, which decreases economic growth in return |
37 | Mushtaq et al. (2020) | DV: Tourism Demand; IV: Institutional quality | This paper investigates the effects of institutional quality on the international tourism demand of India from 1995 to 2016 | Autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) | Institutional quality has a positive relationship with international tourism demand. Rule of law, regulatory quality, control of corruption, and voice and accountability (components of institutional quality) promote the tourism sector development, while the effects of government effectiveness were found negative |
38 | Lee (2020) | DV: Economic development; IV: Tourism; Moderator: Institutional quality | This study examines the moderating influence of institutional quality among tourism and economic growth in Malaysia during 1996 to 2015 | Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) | Institutional quality (especially control of corruption and government effectiveness) play a crucial role in tourism and economic growth. Any policy planning could promote tourism development and economic growth that increases corruption and government effectiveness |
39 | Hassan et al. (2020) | DV: Poverty alleviation; IV: Governance | This study examines the influence of competitiveness, governance and globalization on poverty in the case of 73 develo** countries during the period of 2005 to 2016 | Feasible generalized least squares (FGLS) | All governance indicators, globalization, competitiveness and development expenditures have a significant potential to alleviate poverty |
40 | Godil et al. (2020) | DV: CO2 emission; IV: ICT, Financial development, Institutional quality | This research examines the effects of institutional quality, information and communication technology, and financial development on CO2 emissions in Pakistan from 1995 to 2018 | Quantile autoregressive distributed lag (QARDL) | When financial development and institutional quality increases, the CO2 emissions also increase. However, when financial enhancement and ICT increases, carbon emissions decrease |
Appendix C: Measurement and source of indicators
Main Indicator | Indicator Details | Data Source |
|---|---|---|
Inclusive Green Growth Index (PCA) | Adjusted net savings, including particulate emission damage, Research and development expenditure, Health expenditure | World Bank |
Tourism | Number of international tourist arrivals | World Bank |
Fintech (PCA) | Deposit accounts with commercial banks, Deposit accounts with credit unions and credit cooperatives, Registered mobile money accounts, Commercial banks, Credit union, credit cooperative branches, Microfinance institution branches, Automated Teller Machines (ATMs), Registered mobile money agent outlets, Outstanding deposits with commercial banks, Outstanding deposits with credit unions, Outstanding loans from commercial banks, Outstanding loans from credit unions, Outstanding loans from microfinance institutions, Value of mobile money transactions, Technological patents, E-government rank, E-participation index, Online service index, Telecommunication infrastructure index, Mobile cellular subscriptions, Individuals using the internet | IMF, OECD, United Nations, World Bank |
Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) | China-integrated pre-post BRI spillover | Dummy Variable (0 and 1) |
Institutional Quality | The PCA comprises voice and accountability, absence of terrorism/violence and political stability, control of corruption, governance effectiveness, regulatory quality, and rule of law | World Bank |
Urbanization | Urban population growth | World Bank |
Household Consumption | Households and NPISHs final consumption expenditure | World Bank |
Renewable Energy to Total Energy Ratio | Divide data from Non-renewable energy sources (Consumption of Coal, Natural gas, Nuclear, Petroleum and other liquids, Nuclear, renewables, and others) to Renewable energy sources | Energy Information Administration |
KOF Globalization Index | KOF globalization index | KOF Swiss Economic Institute |
Socioeconomic Condition | Socioeconomic conditions | International Country Risk Guide |
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Iftikhar, H., Ullah, A. & **lu, C. From regional integrated development toward sustainable future: evaluating the Belt and Road Initiative’s spillover impact between tourism, Fintech and inclusive green growth. Clean Techn Environ Policy (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-024-02890-3
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10098-024-02890-3