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Trends and climate change analysis for common climate variables in Gelgel Belese Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

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A Correction to this article was published on 16 December 2023

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Abstract

In this study, modeling of temporal trends for commonly climatic variables for the base line period and future time interval was undertaken for Gelgel Belese watershed in Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. The climatic variables data from the period 1998 to 2019 was considered the baseline period and the future climate variables data were downscaled using dynamic downscaling method from the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment over the African Domain for 2020 to 2100. Mann–Kendall’s trend test and time series linear model were used to test the temporal trends of climatic variables in the study area. The test result of observed precipitation indicated non-significant trend, while the average annual temperature indicated an increasing trend with the rate changes of 0.0067 \(^\circ{\rm C}\)/year and 0.005 ℃/year in Dangila and Chagni stations, respectively. Whereas, in the same time interval non-significant increasing trend in average annual temperature in Pawi station was common. In line with average annual temperature, evapotranspiration indicated significant increasing trend with the rate change of 0.68 mm/5 year in Dangila station and non-significant increasing trend in Chagni and Pawi stations. Future average annual temperature and annual evapotranspiration imply significant increasing trend, whereas mean annual future precipitation exhibited non-significant decreasing trend in the majority of the RCPs in all stations in the future time interval. This change may be responsible for alterations of the hydrological cycle in the study area. Higher increment of temperature and evapotranspiration and reduction of rainfall in the future over the study watershed may result in decreasing pattern of total flow of the river in the area. Due to this, water demand dissatisfaction for different water users in the study area may become common event. Thus, the designs of different water harvesting infrastructures for different water users should be taken into account in the study area in the future.

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Data availability

All the original data and materials of this research are available in Ethiopian National Meteorological Agency. The original and the manipulated data can also be found in the hand of the corresponding authors of this research.

Code availability

Not applicable.

Change history

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Funding

The research was funding by the Assosa University on behalf of Minster of Science and Higher Education of Ethiopia. The funding sponsor had no role in the design of the study; in the analyses, or interpretation of data; in the writing of the manuscript; or in the decision to publish the results.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Soil Resource and Watershed Management, Assosa University, Assosa, Ethiopia

    Kasye Shitu & Adibar Hymiro

  2. School of Civil and Water Resource Engineering, Institute of Technology, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

    Dagnenet Sultan

  3. Department of Natural Resources Management, Bahir Dar University, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia

    Solomon Addisu

Authors
  1. Kasye Shitu
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  2. Adibar Hymiro
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  4. Solomon Addisu
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The author Adibar Hymiro gathered all data of the research, organized them, analyzed the data, and wrote all parts of the paper. Other authors edited all parts of the paper and comment: what should be added and what should be removed in the paper. All authors read the final draft of the paper.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Kasye Shitu.

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Ethics approval

The study was approved by Sisay Mekonnen (assistant professor), Assosa University, Agriculture and Natural Resource College Research, Technology Innovation and Transfer coordinator.

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The original online version of this article was revised: Due to the affiliation details of authors Kasye Shitu, Adibar Hymiro and Dagnenet Sultan were incorrectly given.

Appendix

Appendix

Please see Figs. 10, 11, 12, and 13.

Fig. 10
figure 10

Average annual future temperature trends of Dangila Station

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Fig. 11
figure 11

Average annual future temperature trends of Pawi Station from 2020 to 2100

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Fig. 12
figure 12

Average annual future evapotranspiration trends of Dangila Station

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Fig. 13
figure 13

Average annual future evapotranspiration trends of Pawi Station

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Shitu, K., Hymiro, A., Sultan, D. et al. Trends and climate change analysis for common climate variables in Gelgel Belese Watershed, Upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia. Theor Appl Climatol 154, 505–519 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-023-04568-0

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