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Tropical cyclones in the northern Mozambique Channel: composite intra-seasonal forcing and 2019 event

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Abstract

Tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the northern Mozambique Channel (nMC) during the satellite era is studied, culminating with the anomalous 2019 season. We identify 21 westward-moving TCs since 1979 and analyze regional to local conditions as they move over the nMC. As easterly flow is needed to steer these TC into the channel and over land, we look for scenarios under which this flow is established along with thermodynamic conditions necessary to support TCs. At seasonal scales there is a dichotomy between westward steering flow and reduced thermodynamic energy during Pacific La Niña and cool-phase Indian Ocean Dipole (–IOD). Equatorial convective systems (Madden Julian Oscillation, MJO) entering the west Indian Ocean can trigger TC formation and subtropical ridging, more effectively at the end of austral summer. Conditions in early 2019 favoured westward flow over Madagascar. The onset of warm phase + IOD was evident in the Walker circulation and downwelling ocean Rossby wave that warmed SST to 31 °C north of Madagascar. High-amplitude MJO triggered the genesis of TCs Idai (March) and Kenneth (April) and both TCs transited the Mozambique Channel causing unprecedented floods. TC Kenneth intensified rapidly, and satellite rainfall and upper level ozone indicated the presence of a southern spiral cloud band that shielded the TC from the sub-tropical jet over Madagascar. Numerical model forecasts of track and intensity are evaluated.

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Data Availability

A data spreadsheet is available on request, including much of the analysis here, url links to websites for data and macro subroutines employed in statistical processing and analysis.

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Acknowledgements

Satellite, reanalysis and vortex-scale model data were obtained from Univ Hawaii APDRC, KNMI Climate Explorer, IRI Climate Library, NOAA Coastwatch, Navy Coamps-TC. The first author acknowledges on-going support from the SA Dept of Education.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Geography Department, University of Zululand, KwaDlangezwa, 3886, South Africa

    Mark R. Jury

  2. Physics Department, University of Puerto Rico, Mayaguez, 00681, USA

    Mark R. Jury

  3. Geography Department, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL, 32611, USA

    Corene J. Matyas

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Appendix

Appendix

See below Fig. 9.

Fig. 9
figure 9

a Representing the IOD with 1–100 m sub-surface sea temperatures south of the equator: (i) Empirical orthogonal function mode-1 loading pattern and (ii) filtered time score, (iii) mean annual cycle segregated into warm and cool phase, and (iv) IOD vs Nino3.4 scatterplot and regression. Red circle indicates 2019 IOD was decoupled from the Pacific. b Global MJO RMM diagram Apr–Jun 2019 (Wheeler and Hendon 2004); black dot (below left) denotes the genesis of TC Kenneth in the nMC

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Jury, M.R., Matyas, C.J. Tropical cyclones in the northern Mozambique Channel: composite intra-seasonal forcing and 2019 event. Meteorol Atmos Phys 134, 70 (2022). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00703-022-00911-8

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