Abstract
The study projects climate over the Upper Indus Basin (UIB), covering geographic areas in India, Pakistan, Afghanistan, and China, under the two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), viz., RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 by the late twenty-first century using the best-fit climate model validated against the climate observations from eight meteorological stations. GFDL CM3 performed better than the other five evaluated climate models in simulating the climate of the UIB. The model bias was significantly reduced by the Aerts and Droogers statistical downscaling method, and the projections overall revealed a significant increase in temperature and a slight increase in precipitation across the UIB comprising of Jhelum, Chenab, and Indus sub-basins. According to RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, the temperature and precipitation in the Jhelum are projected to increase by 3 °C and 5.2 °C and 0.8% and 3.4% respectively by the late twenty-first century. The temperature and precipitation in the Chenab are projected to increase by 3.5 °C and 4.8 °C and 8% and 8.2% respectively by the late twenty-first century under the two scenarios. The temperature and precipitation in the Indus are projected to increase by 4.8 °C and 6.5 °C and 2.6% and 8.7% respectively by the late twenty-first century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios. The late twenty-first century projected climate would have significant impacts on various ecosystem services and products, irrigation and socio-hydrological regimes, and various dependent livelihoods. It is therefore hoped that the high-resolution climate projections would be useful for impact assessment studies to inform policymaking for climate action in the UIB.
Similar content being viewed by others
Data availability
The data will be made available upon request to the corresponding author.
References
Abbas S, Qamer FM, Murthy MS, Tripathi NK, Ning W, Sharma E, Ali G (2015) Grassland growth in response to climate variability in the Upper Indus Basin, Pakistan. J Clim 3(3):697–714. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli3030697
Abdullah T, Romshoo SA, Rashid I (2020) The satellite observed glacier mass changes over the Upper Indus Basin during 2000–2012. Sci Rep 10(1):1–9. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41598-020-71281-7
Aerts JC, Droogers P (2004) Climate Change in contrasting river basins. Adaptation strategies for water for food and water for the environment CABI Wallingfort.https://doi.org/10.2166/wst.2005.0123
Akhtar M, Ahmad N, Booij MJ (2008) The impact of climate change on the water resources of Hindukush–Karakorum–Himalaya region under different glacier coverage scenarios. J Hydrol 355(1–4):148–163
Ali S, Li D, Congbin F, Khan F (2015) Twenty first century climatic and hydrological changes over Upper Indus Basin of Himalayan region of Pakistan. Environ Res Lett 10(1):014007. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2008.03.015
Aloysius NR, Sheffield J, Saiers JE, Li H, Wood EF (2016) Evaluation of historical and future simulations of precipitation and temperature in central Africa from CMIP5 climate models. J Geophysic Res Atmos 121(1):130–152. https://doi.org/10.1002/2015JD023656
Anandhi A, Srinivas VV, Nanjundiah RS, Nagesh D (2008) Downscaling precipitation to river basin in India for IPCC SRES scenarios using support vector machine. Int J Climatol 28(3):401–420. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1529
Archer D (2003) Contrasting hydrological regimes in the upper Indus Basin. J Hydrol 274(1–4):198–210. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0022-1694(02)00414-6
Archer DR, Fowler HJ (2004) Spatial and temporal variations in precipitation in the Upper Indus Basin, global teleconnections and hydrological implications. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 8(1):47–61. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-8-47-2004
Arguez A, Vose RS (2011) The definition of the standard WMO climate normal: the key to deriving alternative climate normals. Bull Amer Meteor Soc 92(6):699–704. https://doi.org/10.1175/2010BAMS2955.I
Bhutiyani MR, Kale VS, Pawar NJ (2007) Long-term trends in maximum, minimum and mean annual air temperatures across the Northwestern Himalaya during the twentieth century. Clim Change 85(1):159–177. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9196-1
Bhutiyani MR, Kale VS, Pawar NJ (2010) Climate change and the precipitation variations in the northwestern Himalaya: 1866–2006. Int J Climatol 30(4):535–548. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1920
Biemans H, Speelman LH, Ludwig F, Moors EJ, Wiltshire AJ, Kumar P, Gerten D, Kabat (2013) Future water resources for food production in five South Asian river basins and potential for adaptation–a modeling study. Sci Total Environ 468–469:S117–S131. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9196-1
Brown JE (2006) An analysis of the performance of hybrid infrared and microwave satellite precipitation algorithms over India and adjacent regions. Remote Sens Environ 101(1):63–81. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rse.2005.12.005
Chaturvedi RK, Kulkarni A, Karyakarte Y, Joshi J, Bala G (2014) Glacial mass balance changes in the Karakoram and Himalaya based on CMIP5 multi-model climate projections. Clim Change 123(2):315–328. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-013-1052-5
Chaturvedi RK, Joshi J, Jayaraman M, Bala G, Ravindranath NH (2012) Multi-model climate change projections for India under representative concentration pathways. Curr Sci 791–802. https://www.jstor.org/stable/24088836. Accessed 16 Apr 2022
Chen HP, Sun JQ, Li HX (2017) Future changes in precipitation extremes over China using the NEX-GDDP high-resolution daily downscaled data-set. Atmos Ocean Sci Lett 10(6):403–410. https://doi.org/10.1080/16742834.2017.1367625
Choudhary A, Dimri AP (2018) Assessment of CORDEX-South Asia experiments for monsoonal precipitation over Himalayan region for future climate. Clim Dyn 50(7–8):3009–3030. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-017-3789-4
Coppola E, Giorgi F (2010) An assessment of temperature and precipitation change projections over Italy from recent global and regional climate model simulations. Int J Climatol 30(1):11–32. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.1867
Crane RG, Hewitson BC (1998) Doubled CO2 precipitation changes for the susquehanna basin down-scaling from the genesis general circulation model. Int J Climatol 18(1):65–76. https://doi.org/10.1002/(SICI)1097-0088(199801)18:1%3c65::AID-JOC222%3e3.0.CO;2-9
Dar RA, Rashid I, Romshoo SA, Marazi A (2014) Sustainability of winter tourism in a changing climate over Kashmir Himalaya. Environ Monit Assess 186(4):2549–2562. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-013-3559-7
Dars GH, Sattar M, Touseef M, Strong C, Najafi MR (2021) Study of multi-model ensemble high-resolution projections of major climatic variables over the Indus River Basin and Pakistan. Mehran Univ Res J Eng Technol 40(1):104–115. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-65679-9_6
Das J, Poonia V, Jha S, Goyal MK (2020) Understanding the climate change impact on crop yield over Eastern Himalayan Region: ascertaining GCM and scenario uncertainty. Theor Appl Climatol 142(1):467–482. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03332-y
Davies-Barnard T, Valdes PJ, Singarayer JS, Pacifico FM, Jones CD (2014) Full effects of land use change in the representative concentration pathways. Environ Res Lett 9:114014. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/11/114014
Dimri AP, Niyogi D (2013) Regional climate model application at subgrid scale on Indian winter monsoon over the western Himalayas. Int J Climatol 33(9):2185–2205. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.3584
Dinku T, Ceccato P, Grover-Kopec E, Lemma M, Connor SJ, Ropelewski CF (2007) Validation of satellite rainfall products over East Africa’s complex topography. Int J Remote Sens 28(7):1503–1526. https://doi.org/10.1080/01431160600954688
Fan JW, Shao QQ, Liu JY, Wang JB, Harris W, Chen ZQ, Liu RG (2010) Assessment of effects of climate change and grazing activity on grassland yield in the Three Rivers Headwaters Region of Qinghai-Tibet Plateau China. Environ Monit Assess 170(1):571–584. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-009-1258-1
Flato GJ, Marotzke B, Abiodun P, Braconnot SC, Chou W, Collins P, Cox F, Driouech SE, Eyring V, Forest C, Gleckler P, Guilyardi E, Jakob C, Kattsov V, Reason C, Rummukainen M (2013) Evaluation of climate models. In: Climate Change 2013: The Physical Science Basis. Contribution of Working Group I to the Fifth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Stocker TF, Qin GK, Plattner M, Tignor SK, Allen J, Boschung A, Nauels Y, **a V, Bex a Midgley PM (eds). Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, United Kingdom and New York, NY, USA, pp 741–866 https://doi.org/10.1017/CBO9781107415324.020
Gado TA, Mohameden MB, Rashawn IM (2022) Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for the impact assessment of the climate change in Egypt. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29(14):20200–20220. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17189-9
Gebrechorkos SH, Bernhofer C, Hülsmann S (2020) Climate change impact assessment on the hydrology of a large river basin in Ethiopia using a local-scale climate modelling approach. Sci Total Environ 742:140504. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2020.140504
Gleckler PJ, Taylor KE, Doutriaux C (2008) Performance metrics for climate models. J Geophys Res Atmos 113 (D6). https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD008972
Gumindoga W, Rientjes THM, Haile AT, Makurira H, Reggiani P (2016) Bias correction schemes for CMORPH satellite rainfall estimates in the Zambezi River Basin. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci Disc 1-36. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-2016-33
Hasson S, Lucarini V, Khan MR, Petitta M, Bolch T, Gioli G (2014) Early 21st century snow cover state over the western river basins of the Indus River system. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 18(10):4077–4100. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-4077-2014
Hoar T, Nychka D (2008) Statistical downscaling of the community climate system model (CCSM) monthly temperature and precipitation projections. Institute for Mathematics Applied to Geosciences/National Center for Atmospheric Research, Boulder. http://www.gisclimatechange.org/Downscaling.pdf
Immerzeel WW, Van Beek LPH, Konz M, Shrestha AB, Bierkens MFP (2012) Hydrological response to climate change in a glacierized catchment in the Himalayas. Clim Change 110(3):721–736. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0143-4
Immerzeel WW, Van Beek LP, Bierkens MF, (2010) Climate change will affect the Asian water towers. Sci 328(5984):1382–1385. https://www.science.org/lookup/doi/10.1126/science.1183188. Accessed 23 Mar 2022
Inam A, Clift PD, Giosan L, Tabrez AR, Tahir M, Rabbani MM, Danish M (2007) The geographic geological and oceanographic setting of the Indus River. In: Avijit G (ed) Large rivers: geomorphology and management. Wiley, New York, pp 333–345
Jang S, Kavvas ML (2015) Downscaling global climate simulations to regional scales: statistical downscaling versus dynamical downscaling. J Hydrol Eng 20(1):A4014006. https://doi.org/10.1061/(ASCE)HE.1943-5584.0000939
Jiang Y, Luo Y, Zhao Z, Shi Y, Xu Y, Zhu J (2010) Projections of wind changes for 21st century in China by three regional climate models. Chin Geogr Sci 20(3):226–235. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11769-010-0226-6
Jiang JH, Su H, Zhai C, Perun VS, Del Genio A, Nazarenko LS, Donner LJ, Horowitz L, Seman C, Cole J, Gettelman A (2012) Evaluation of cloud and water vapor simulations in CMIP5 climate models using NASA A‐Train satellite observations. J Geophys Res Atmos 117(D14). https://doi.org/10.1029/2011JD017237
Kanda N, Negi HS, Rishi MS, Kumar A (2020) Performance of various gridded temperature and precipitation datasets over Northwest Himalayan Region. Env Res Com 2(8):085002
Kawase H, Nagashima T, Sudo K, Nozawa T (2011) Future changes in tropospheric ozone under representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Geophys Res Lett 38(5).https://doi.org/10.1029/2010GL046402
Khan AJ, Koch M (2018) Selecting and downscaling a set of climate models for projecting climatic change for impact assessment in the Upper Indus Basin (UIB). J Clim 6(4):89. https://doi.org/10.3390/cli6040089
Khan SM, Page S, Ahmad HA, Shaheen HA, Harper DM (2012) Vegetation dynamics in the Western Himalayas diversity indices and climate change. Sci Tech and Dev 31(3):232–243
Kidd C, Becker A, Huffman GJ, Muller CL, Joe P, Skofronick-Jackson G, Kirschbaum DB (2017) So, how much of the Earth’s surface is covered by rain gauges? Bull Amer Meteor 98(1):69–78. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-D-14-00283.1
Knutti R, Sedláček J (2013) Robustness and uncertainties in the new CMIP5 climate model projections. Nat Clim Change 3(4):369–373. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate1716
Kotamarthi R, Hayhoe K, Wuebbles D, Mearns LO, Jacobs J, Jurado J (2021) Downscaling techniques for high-resolution climate projections: From global change to local impacts. Cambridge University Press. https://doi.org/10.1017/9781108601269
Krishnan A, Bhaskaran PK (2021) Comparison of CMIP5 wind speed from global climate models with in-situ observations for the Bay of Bengal. Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources. Springer, Cham, pp 267–278. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-030-64202-0_24
Kulkarni A, Patwardhan SK, Kumar KK, Ashok K, Krishnan R (2013) Projected climate change in the Hindu Kush-Himalayan region by using the high-resolution regional climate model PRECIS. Mt Res Dev 33(2):142–151. https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-11-00131.1
Kumar KK, Patwardhan SK, Kulkarni A, Kamala K, Rao K K, Jones R (2011) Simulated projections for summer monsoon climate over India by a high-resolution regional climate model (PRECIS). Curr Sci 101(3):312–326
Kumar P, Wiltshire A, Mathison C, Asharaf S, Ahrens B, Lucas PP, Christensen JH, Gobiet A, Saeed F, Hagemann S, Jacob D (2013) Downscaled climate change projections with uncertainty assessment over India using a high resolution multi-model approach. Sci Total Environ 468:S18-30. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2013.01.051
Kumar M, Hodnebrog Ø, Daloz AS, Sen S, Badiger S, Krishnaswamy J (2021) Measuring precipitation in Eastern Himalaya: ground validation of eleven satellite, model and gauge interpolated gridded products. J Hydrol 599:126252. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126252
Lambert SJ, Boer GJ (2001) CMIP1 evaluation and intercomparison of coupled climate models. Clim Dyn 17(2):83–106. https://doi.org/10.1007/PL00013736
Latif Y, Ma Y, Ma W (2021) Climatic trends variability and concerning flow regime of Upper Indus Basin Jehlum and Kabul River basins Pakistan. Theor Appl Climatol 144(1):447–468. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-021-03529-9
Lutz AF, ter Maat HW, Biemans H, Shrestha AB, Wester P, Immerzeel WW (2016) Selecting representative climate models for climate change impact studies: an advanced envelope-based selection approach. Int J Climatol 36(12):3988–4005. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.4608
Madhura RK, Krishnan R, Revadekar JV, Mujumdar M Goswami BN (2015) Changes in western disturbances over the Western Himalayas in a warming environment. Clim Dyn 44:1157–1168. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2166-9
Madhusoodhanan CG, Shashikanth K, Eldho TI, Ghosh S (2018) Can statistical downscaling improve consensus among CMIP5 models for Indian summer monsoon rainfall projections. Int J Climatol 38(5):2449–2461. https://doi.org/10.1002/joc.5352
Maurer EP, Hidalgo HG (2008) Utility of daily vs. monthly large-scale climate data: an inter-comparison of two statistical downscaling methods. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 12:551–563. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-12-551-2008
Miao C, Duan Q, Sun Q, Huang Y, Kong D, Yang T, Gong W (2014) Assessment of CMIP5 climate models and projected temperature changes over Northern Eurasia. Environ Res Lett 9(5):055007. https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/9/5/055007
Miller JD, Immerzeel WW, Rees G (2012) Climate change impacts on glacier hydrology and river discharge in the Hindu Kush-Himalayas. Mt Res Dev 32(4):461–467. https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-12-00027.1
Mishra AK, Ramgopal M (2015) An adaptive thermal comfort model for the tropical climatic regions of India (Köppen climate type A). Build Environ 85:134–143. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.buildenv.2014.12.006
Moss RH, Edmonds JA, Hibbard KA, Manning MR, Rose SK, Van Vuuren DP, Carter TR, Emor S, Kainuma M, Kram T, Meehl GA (2010) The next generation of scenarios for climate change research and assessment. Nat 463(7282):747–756. https://doi.org/10.1038/nature08823
Muhammad S, Tian L, Khan A (2019) Early twenty-first century glacier mass losses in the Indus Basin constrained by density assumptions. J Hydrol 574:467–475. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2019.04.057
Murtaza KO, Romshoo SA (2017) Recent glacier changes in the Kashmir alpine Himalayas India. Geocarto Int 32(2):188–205. https://doi.org/10.1080/10106049.2015.1132482
Nash JE, Sutcliffe JV (1970) River flow forecasting through conceptual models part I—a discussion of principles. J Hydrol 10(3):282–290. https://doi.org/10.1016/0022-1694(70)90255-6
Nüsser M, Schmidt S (2017) Nanga Parbat revisited: Evolution and dynamics of sociohydrological interactions in the Northwestern Himalaya. Ann Am Assoc Geogr 107(2):403–415. https://doi.org/10.1080/24694452.2016.1235495
Nüsser M, Schmidt S, Dame J (2012) Irrigation and development in the upper Indus Basin: characteristics and recent changes of a socio-hydrological system in central Ladakh, India. Mt Res Dev 32(1):51–61. https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-11-00091.1
Nüsser M, Dame J, Parveen S, Kraus B, Baghel R, Schmidt S (2019) Cryosphere-fed irrigation networks in the northwestern Himalaya: precarious livelihoods and adaptation strategies under the impact of climate change. Mt Res Dev 39(2):R1–R11. https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-18-00072.1
Pandey A, Parashar D, Bhatt NC, Palni S, Pundir C, Yadav AS, Pratap A, Bhatt PK (2022) Impact of climate on vegetation in Pindari watershed of Western Himalayas, Kumaun, India, using spatiotemporal analysis: 1972–2018. Environ Sci Pollut Res 1–12. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-19711-z
Pearson K (1897) Mathematical contributions to the theory of evolution. On telegony In Man & C Proc R Soc Lond 60(359–367):273–283https://doi.org/10.1098/rspl.1896.0048
Pellicciotti F, Buergi C, Immerzeel WW, Konz M, Shrestha AB (2012) Challenges and uncertainties in hydrological modeling of remote Hindu Kush–Karakoram–Himalayan (HKH) basins: suggestions for calibration strategies. Mt Res Dev 32(1):39–50. https://doi.org/10.1659/MRD-JOURNAL-D-11-00092.1
Pepin N, Bradley RS, Diaz HF, Baraër M, Caceres EB, Forsythe N, Fowler H, Greenwood G, Hashmi MZ, Liu XD, Miller JR (2015) Elevation-dependent warming in mountain regions of the world. Nat Clim Change 5(5):424. https://doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2563
Pierce DW, Barnett TP, Santer BD, Gleckler PJ (2009) Selecting global climate models for regional climate change studies. Proc Natl Acad Sci 106(21):8441–8446
Pincus R, Batstone CP, Hofmann RJ, Taylor KE, Glecker PJ (2008) Evaluating the present‐day simulation of clouds precipitation and radiation in climate models. J Geoph Res Atmos 113(D14). https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009334
Pomee MS, Ashfaq M, Ahmad B, Hertig E (2020) Modeling regional precipitation over the Indus River basin of Pakistan using statistical downscaling. Theor Appl Climatol 142(1):29–57. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-020-03246-9
Raghavan SV, Hur J, Liong SY (2018) Evaluations of NASA NEX-GDDP data over Southeast Asia present and future climates. Clim Change 148(4):503–518. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-018-2213-3
Rajbhandari R, Shrestha AB, Kulkarni A, Patwardhan SK, Bajracharya SR (2015) Projected changes in climate over the Indus river basin using a high resolution regional climate model (PRECIS). Clim Dyn 44(1–2):339–357. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-014-2183-8
Rajbhandari, R, Shrestha AB, Nepal S, Wahid S (2016) Projection of future climate over the Koshi River basin based on CMIP5 GCMs. Atmos Clim Sci 6(2):190–204. https://doi.org/10.4236/acs.2016.62017
Ran H, Li J, Zhou Z, Zhang C, Tang C, Yu Y (2020) Predicting the spatiotemporal characteristics of flash droughts with downscaled CMIP5 models in the **ghe River basin of China. Environ Sci Pollut Res 27(32):40370–40382. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-020-10036-3
Rana S, McGregor J, Renwick J (2015) Precipitation seasonality over the Indian subcontinent: an evaluation of gauge, reanalyses, and satellite retrievals. J Hydrometeorol 16(2):631–651. https://doi.org/10.1175/JHM-D-14-0106.1
Rao KK, Lakshmi Kumar TV, Kulkarni A, Chowdary JS, Desamsetti S (2022) Characteristic changes in climate projections over Indus Basin using the bias corrected CMIP6 simulations. Clim Dyn 58(11):3471–3495. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-06108-w
Rashid I, Romshoo SA, Chaturvedi RK, Ravindranath NH, Sukumar R, Jayaraman M, Lakshmi TV, Sharma J (2015) Projected climate change impacts on vegetation distribution over Kashmir Himalayas. Clim Change 132(4):601–613. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-015-1456-5
Rautela P, Karki B (2015) Impact of climate change on life and livelihood of indigenous people of higher Himalaya in Uttarakhand, India. Am J Environ Prot 3(4):112–124. https://doi.org/10.12691/env-3-4-2
Reichler T, Kim J (2008) How well do coupled models simulate today’s climate. Bull Amer Meteorol Soc 89(3):303–312. https://doi.org/10.1175/BAMS-89-3-303
Romshoo SA, Rashid I (2014) Assessing the impacts of changing land cover and climate on Hokersar wetland in Indian Himalayas. Arab J Geosci 7(1):143–160. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12517-012-0761-9
Romshoo SA, Dar RA, Rashid I, Marazi A, Ali N, Zaz SN (2015) Implications of shrinking cryosphere under changing climate on the streamflows in the Lidder catchment in the Upper Indus Basin India. Arct Antarct Alp Res 47(4):627–644. https://doi.org/10.1657/AAAR0014-088
Romshoo SA, Bashir J, Rashid I (2020a) Twenty-first century-end climate scenario of Jammu and Kashmir Himalaya, India, using ensemble climate models. Clim Change 162(3):1473–1491. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-020-02787-2
Romshoo SA, Fayaz M, Meraj G, Bahuguna IM (2020c) Satellite-observed glacier recession in the Kashmir Himalaya, India, from 1980 to 2018. Environ Monit Assess 192(9):1–17. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10661-020-08554-1
Romshoo SA, Rashid I, Altaf S (2020b) Biodiversity of the Himalaya Jammu and Kashmir State. In: Dar GH, Khuroo AA Jammu and Kashmir State an overview. Springer, Singapore, pp 129-166 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-32-9174-4
Romshoo SA, Murtaza KO, Shah W, Ramzan T, Ameen U, Bhat MH (2022) Anthropogenic climate change drives melting of glaciers in the Himalaya. Environ Sci Pollut Res 1–20. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-022-19524-0
Sahany S, Mishra SK, Salunke P (2019) Historical simulations and climate change projections over India by NCAR CCSM4: CMIP5 vs. NEX-GDDP. Theor Appl Climatol 135(3):1423–1433. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2455-z
Sanjay J, Krishnan R, Shrestha AB, Rajbhandari R, Ren GY (2017) Downscaled climate change projections for the Hindu Kush Himalayan region using CORDEX South Asia regional climate models. Adv Clim Chang Res 8(3):185–198. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.accre.2017.08.003
Shah RD, Narayan Shah D, Domisch S (2012) Range shifts of a relict Himalayan dragonfly in the Hindu Kush Himalayan region under climate change scenarios. Int J Odonatol 15(3):209–222. https://doi.org/10.1080/13887890.2012.697399
Shah MI, Khan A, Akbar TA, Hassan QK, Khan AJ, Dewan A (2020) Predicting hydrologic responses to climate changes in highly glacierized and mountainous region Upper Indus Basin. Royal Soc Open Sci 7(8):191957. https://doi.org/10.1098/rsos.191957
Shrestha AB, Agrawal NK, Alfthan B, Bajracharya SR, Maréchal J, Oort BV (2015) The Himalayan Climate and Water Atlas: impact of climate change on water resources in five of Asia’s major river basins. In: M Rajeevan, S Nayak (Eds.), Regional climate change scenarios. Chapter 16 in the book: observed climate variability and change over the Indian region. Springer, Geology pp. 285–304 https://doi.org/10.1007/978-981-10-2531-0
Sillmann J, Kharin VV, Zwiers FW, Zhang X, Bronaugh D (2013) Climate extremes indices in the CMIP5 multimodel ensemble: part 2. Future climate projections. J Geophys Res Atmos 118(6):2473–2493. https://doi.org/10.1002/jgrd.50188
Singh D, Jain SK, Gupta D (2015) Statistical downscaling and projection of future temperature and precipitation change in middle catchment of Sutlej River Basin, India. J Earth Syst Sci 124(4):843–860. https://doi.org/10.1007/s12040-015-0575-8
Singh J, Singh N, Ojha N, Sharma A, Pozzer A, Kiran Kumar N, Kotamarthi VR (2021) Effects of spatial resolution on WRF v3. 8.1 simulated meteorology over the central Himalaya. Geosci Model Dev 14(3):1427–1443. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-14-1427-2021
Su B, Huang J, Gemmer M, Jian D, Tao H, Jiang T, Zhao C (2016) Statistical downscaling of CMIP5 multi-model ensemble for projected changes of climate in the Indus River Basin. Atmos Res 178:138–149. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.atmosres.2016.03.023
Taylor M, Stephenson TS (2011) Climate Models, Interpreting Results, and Impacts. IDB Publications, Washington, D.C.
Tebaldi C, Hayhoe K, Arblaster JM, Meehl GA (2006) Going to the extremes. Clim Change 79(3):185–211
Thomas CD, Cameron A, Green RE, Bakkenes M, Beaumont LJ, Collingham YC, Williams SE (2004) Extinction risk from climate change. Nature 427(6970):145–148. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-006-9051-4
Thrasher B, Maurer EP, McKellar C, Duffy PB (2012) Bias correcting climate model simulated daily temperature extremes with quantile map**. Hydrol Earth Syst Sci 16(9):3309–3314. https://doi.org/10.5194/hess-16-3309-2012
Timbal B, Fernandez E, Li Z (2009) Generalization of a statistical downscaling model to provide local climate change projections for Australia. Environ Model Softw 24(3):341–358. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.envsoft.2008.07.007
Van Vuuren DP, Edmonds JA, Kainuma M, Riahi K, Weyant J (2011) A special issue on RCPs. Clim Change 109(1):1–4. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-011-0157-y
Vera C, Silvestri G (2009) Precipitation interannual variability in South America from the WCRP-CMIP3 multi-model dataset. Clim Dyn 32(7):1003–1014. https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-009-0534-7
Wester P, Mishra A, Mukherji A, Shrestha AB (2019) The Hindu Kush Himalaya assessment: mountains climate change sustainability and people. Springer International Publishing Springer, Nature. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-3-319-92288-1
Winiger MGHY, Gumpert M, Yamout H (2005) Karakorum–Hindukush–western Himalaya: assessing high-altitude water resources. Hydrol Process 19(12):2329–2338. https://doi.org/10.1002/hyp.5887
**ong Y, Ta Z, Gan M, Yang M, Chen X, Yu R, Yu Y (2021) Evaluation of cmip5 climate models using historical surface air temperatures in central Asia. Atmos 12(3):308. https://doi.org/10.3390/atmos12030308
Xu Z, Han Y, Yang Z (2019) Dynamical downscaling of regional climate: a review of methods and limitations. Sci Chi Earth Sci 62(2):365–375. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11430-018-9261-5
Xue X, Hong Y, Limaye AS, Gourley JJ, Huffman GJ, Si K, Dorji C, Chen S (2013) Statistical and hydrological evaluation of TRMM-based multi-satellite precipitation analysis over the Wangchu Basin of Bhutan: are the latest satellite precipitation products 3B42V7 ready for use in ungauged basins? J Hydrol 499:91–99. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2013.06.042
Yang T, Hao X, Shao Q, Xu CY, Zhao C, Chen X, Wang W (2012) Multi-model ensemble projections in temperature and precipitation extremes of the Tibetan Plateau in the 21st century. Glob Planet Change 80:1–13. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gloplacha.2011.08.006
Yasin M, Ahmad A, Khaliq T, Habib-ur-Rahman M, Niaz S, Gaiser T, Ghafoor I, Suboor ul Hassan H, Qasim M, Hoogenboom G (2022) Climate change impact uncertainty assessment and adaptations for sustainable maize production using multi-crop and climate models. Environ Sci Pollut Res 29(13):18967–18988. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-021-17050-z
Young GJ, Hewitt K (1990) Hydrology research in the upper Indus basin, Karakoram Himalaya, Pakistan. Hydrol Mt Areas 190:139–152
Zaz SN, Romshoo SA, Krishnamoorthy RT, Viswanadhapalli Y (2019) Analyses of temperature and precipitation in the Indian Jammu and Kashmir region for the 1980–2016 period: implications for remote influence and extreme events. Atmospheric Chem Phys 19(1):15–37. https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-19-15-2019
Acknowledgements
The financial assistance received from the sponsors under the project is thankfully acknowledged. We gratefully acknowledge the use of the NEX-GDDP dataset prepared by the Climate Analytics Group and NASA Ames Research Center using the NASA Earth Exchange and distributed by the NASA Center for Climate Simulation (NCCS). We express our gratitude to the anonymous reviewers for the very elaborative and useful review of the manuscript which has greatly improved the quality of the manuscript.
Funding
The financial assistance received was from the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India. Shakil Ahmad Romshoo received a research grant from the Department of Science and Technology (DST), Government of India, under the research project titled “Centre of Excellence for Glacial Studies in Western Himalaya” under grant no. DST/CCP/COE/183/2019 (C). Jasia Bashir received financial support from DST, Government of India, under the WOS-A scheme, grant no. SR/WOS-A/EA-20/2018 (G).
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Contributions
SAR conceptualized and supervised the research and wrote the manuscript with contributions from JB. JB analyzed and validated the climate simulations and downscaled the climate projections.
Corresponding author
Ethics declarations
Ethics approval and consent to participate
Not applicable.
Consent for publication
Not applicable.
Competing interests
The authors declare no competing interests.
Additional information
Responsible Editor: Marcus Schulz
Publisher's note
Springer Nature remains neutral with regard to jurisdictional claims in published maps and institutional affiliations.
Rights and permissions
Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.
About this article
Cite this article
Bashir, J., Romshoo, S.A. Bias-corrected climate change projections over the Upper Indus Basin using a multi-model ensemble. Environ Sci Pollut Res 30, 64517–64535 (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-26898-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11356-023-26898-2