16 Result(s)
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Importance of orographic gravity waves over the Tibetan Plateau on the spring rainfall in East Asia
The springtime persistent rainfall (SPR) is the major rainy period before the onset of summer monsoon in East Asia, which profoundly affects the regional and even global hydrological cycle. Despite the great i...
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Open AccessImportance of internal variability for climate model assessment
Benchmarking climate model simulations against observations of the climate is core to the process of building realistic climate models and develo** accurate future projections. However, in many cases, models...
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The combined influence of the stratospheric polar vortex and ENSO on zonal asymmetries in the southern hemisphere upper tropospheric circulation during austral spring and summer
The influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV) on the zonal asymmetries in the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation during spring and summer is examined. T...
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Open AccessMeaningful climate science
Within the climate science community, useable climate science has been understood as quantitative, usually as a best estimate together with a quantified uncertainty. Physical scientists are trained to produce ...
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Open AccessBringing physical reasoning into statistical practice in climate-change science
The treatment of uncertainty in climate-change science is dominated by the far-reaching influence of the ‘frequentist’ tradition in statistics, which interprets uncertainty in terms of sampling statistics and ...
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Open AccessClimate change attribution and legal contexts: evidence and the role of storylines
In a recent very influential court case, Juliana v. United States, climate scientist Kevin Trenberth used the “storyline” approach to extreme event attribution to argue that greenhouse warming had affected and wi...
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Open AccessNegations in uncertainty lexicon affect attention, decision-making and trust
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) currently communicates uncertainty using a lexicon that features four negative verbal probabilities to convey extremely low to medium probabilities (e.g. un...
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Changes in Northern Hemisphere temperature variability shaped by regional warming patterns
Global warming involves changes not only in the mean atmospheric temperature, but also in its variability and extremes. Here, we use a feature-tracking technique to investigate the dynamical contribution to te...
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Open AccessStoryline description of Southern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation and precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing
As evidence of climate change strengthens, knowledge of its regional implications becomes an urgent need for decision making. Current understanding of regional precipitation changes is substantially limited by...
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Open AccessImpacts of orography on large-scale atmospheric circulation
Some of the largest and most persistent circulation errors in global numerical weather prediction and climate models are attributable to the inadequate representation of the impacts of orography on the atmosph...
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Open AccessStorylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change
As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approa...
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Clouds, circulation and climate sensitivity
Our understanding of the interactions between clouds, circulation and climate is limited. Four central research questions — now tractable through advances in models, concepts and observations — are proposed to...
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Atmospheric circulation as a source of uncertainty in climate change projections
Scientific confidence in climate change effects is much higher for aspects related to global patterns of surface temperature, than for circulation. Circulation will remain hard to predict, necessitating a risk...
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Climate change projections and stratosphere–troposphere interaction
Climate change is expected to increase winter rainfall and flooding in many extratropical regions as evaporation and precipitation rates increase, storms become more intense and storm tracks move polewards. He...
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Large climate-induced changes in ultraviolet index and stratosphere-to-troposphere ozone flux
Now that stratospheric ozone depletion has been controlled by the Montreal Protocol, interest has turned to the effects of climate change on the ozone layer. An atmospheric chemistry model suggests that climat...
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Raising the roof
The atmosphere's lowermost 10 km have long been assumed to be almost solely responsible for weather and climate on Earth. Emerging evidence points to the layer above as an important influence on surface winds ...
