30 Result(s)
within
Theodore G. Shepherd
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Importance of orographic gravity waves over the Tibetan Plateau on the spring rainfall in East Asia
The springtime persistent rainfall (SPR) is the major rainy period before the onset of summer monsoon in East Asia, which profoundly affects the regional and even global hydrological cycle. Despite the great i...
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Open AccessImportance of internal variability for climate model assessment
Benchmarking climate model simulations against observations of the climate is core to the process of building realistic climate models and develo** accurate future projections. However, in many cases, models...
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The combined influence of the stratospheric polar vortex and ENSO on zonal asymmetries in the southern hemisphere upper tropospheric circulation during austral spring and summer
The influence of El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Stratospheric Polar Vortex (SPV) on the zonal asymmetries in the Southern Hemisphere atmospheric circulation during spring and summer is examined. T...
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Open AccessClimate risk assessment needs urgent improvement
Existing constraints in current climate risk assessments make them inappropriate to effectively assess the true exposure of society and businesses to climate-related risk. Using the key constraints to guide a ...
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The value of values in climate science
To date, values are not widely acknowledged or discussed within physical climate science. Yet, effective management of values in physical climate science is required for the benefit of both science and society.
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Open AccessMeaningful climate science
Within the climate science community, useable climate science has been understood as quantitative, usually as a best estimate together with a quantified uncertainty. Physical scientists are trained to produce ...
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Open AccessBringing physical reasoning into statistical practice in climate-change science
The treatment of uncertainty in climate-change science is dominated by the far-reaching influence of the ‘frequentist’ tradition in statistics, which interprets uncertainty in terms of sampling statistics and ...
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Open AccessClimate change attribution and legal contexts: evidence and the role of storylines
In a recent very influential court case, Juliana v. United States, climate scientist Kevin Trenberth used the “storyline” approach to extreme event attribution to argue that greenhouse warming had affected and wi...
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Eurasian cooling in response to Arctic sea-ice loss is not proved by maximum covariance analysis
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Open AccessMore meteorological events that drive compound coastal flooding are projected under climate change
Compound flooding arises from storms causing concurrent extreme meteorological tides (that is the superposition of storm surge and waves) and precipitation. This flooding can severely affect densely populated ...
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Open AccessNegations in uncertainty lexicon affect attention, decision-making and trust
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) currently communicates uncertainty using a lexicon that features four negative verbal probabilities to convey extremely low to medium probabilities (e.g. un...
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Changes in Northern Hemisphere temperature variability shaped by regional warming patterns
Global warming involves changes not only in the mean atmospheric temperature, but also in its variability and extremes. Here, we use a feature-tracking technique to investigate the dynamical contribution to te...
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Open AccessStoryline description of Southern Hemisphere midlatitude circulation and precipitation response to greenhouse gas forcing
As evidence of climate change strengthens, knowledge of its regional implications becomes an urgent need for decision making. Current understanding of regional precipitation changes is substantially limited by...
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Open AccessImpacts of orography on large-scale atmospheric circulation
Some of the largest and most persistent circulation errors in global numerical weather prediction and climate models are attributable to the inadequate representation of the impacts of orography on the atmosph...
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Open AccessStorylines: an alternative approach to representing uncertainty in physical aspects of climate change
As climate change research becomes increasingly applied, the need for actionable information is growing rapidly. A key aspect of this requirement is the representation of uncertainties. The conventional approa...
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Towards process-informed bias correction of climate change simulations
Biases in climate model simulations introduce biases in subsequent impact simulations. Therefore, bias correction methods are operationally used to post-process regional climate projections. However, many prob...
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Nonlinear response of mid-latitude weather to the changing Arctic
Understanding the influence of the changing Arctic on mid-latitude weather is complex, and a challenge for researchers. This Perspective considers current approaches and proposes a way forward based on accepti...
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Open AccessA Common Framework for Approaches to Extreme Event Attribution
The extent to which a given extreme weather or climate event is attributable to anthropogenic climate change is a question of considerable public interest. From a scientific perspective, the question can be fr...
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Attribution of climate extreme events
There is a tremendous desire to attribute causes to weather and climate events that is often challenging from a physical standpoint. Headlines attributing an event solely to either human-induced climate change...
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The dynamics of temperature extremes
Changes in the occurrence of atmospheric circulation patterns are not well understood. A study finds that these have been a big factor in observed changes in regional temperature extremes during recent decades. S...
