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Open AccessReducing sectoral hard-to-abate emissions to limit reliance on carbon dioxide removal
To reach net-zero greenhouse gas targets, carbon dioxide removal (CDR) technologies are required to compensate for residual emissions in the hard-to-abate sectors. However, dependencies on CDR technologies inv...
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Open AccessSpread in climate policy scenarios unravelled
Analysis of climate policy scenarios has become an important tool for identifying mitigation strategies, as shown in the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group III report1. The key outcome...
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Open AccessOn the optimality of 2°C targets and a decomposition of uncertainty
Determining international climate mitigation response strategies is a complex task. Integrated Assessment Models support this process by analysing the interplay of the most relevant factors, including socio-ec...
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Open AccessImplications of various effort-sharing approaches for national carbon budgets and emission pathways
The bottom-up approach of the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) in the Paris Agreement has led countries to self-determine their greenhouse gas (GHG) emission reduction targets. The planned ‘ratchetin...
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The costs of achieving climate targets and the sources of uncertainty
Effective climate policy requires information from various scientific disciplines. Here, we construct a metamodel from climate and integrated assessment models that assesses the emissions budget, costs and unc...
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Alternative pathways to the 1.5 °C target reduce the need for negative emission technologies
Mitigation scenarios that achieve the ambitious targets included in the Paris Agreement typically rely on greenhouse gas emission reductions combined with net carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere, ...
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Open discussion of negative emissions is urgently needed
Although nearly all 2 °C scenarios use negative CO2 emission technologies, only relatively small investments are being made in them, and concerns are being raised regarding their large-scale use. If no explicit p...
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Open AccessEarly action on Paris Agreement allows for more time to change energy systems
The IMAGE integrated assessment model was used to develop a set of scenarios to evaluate the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted by Parties under the Paris Agreement. The scenarios project emi...
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Costs and benefits of differences in the timing of greenhouse gas emission reductions
Most modelling studies that explore long-term greenhouse gas mitigation scenarios focus on cost-efficient emission pathways towards a certain climate target, like the internationally agreed target to keep glob...
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Contribution of the G20 economies to the global impact of the Paris agreement climate proposals
By 15 December 2015, 187 countries had submitted their Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) summarising their climate actions after 2020 in the context of the Paris Agreement. We used a unified...
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Open AccessHow well do integrated assessment models represent non-CO2 radiative forcing?
This study aims to create insight in how Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) perform in describing the climate forcing by non-CO2 gases and aerosols. The simple climate models (SCMs) included in IAMs have been ru...
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Regional differences in mitigation strategies: an example for passenger transport
This paper shows the importance of including region-specific circumstances in long-term climate change mitigation strategies, by example of a modeling exercise of the transport sector. Important emission reduc...
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Disentangling the ranges: climate policy scenarios for China and India
Greenhouse gas emissions in China and India have been increasing rapidly over the last decade. Scenario studies can provide insight into expected future trends and the emission reduction potential in these reg...
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Welfare impacts of climate change
Climate change can affect well-being in poor economies more than previously shown if its effect on economic growth, and not only on current production, is considered. But this result does not necessarily sugge...
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The impact of technology availability on the timing and costs of emission reductions for achieving long-term climate targets
While most long-term mitigation scenario studies build on a broad portfolio of mitigation technologies, there is quite some uncertainty about the availability and reduction potential of these technologies. Thi...
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Reduction targets and abatement costs of develo** countries resulting from global and developed countries’ reduction targets by 2050
The European Union (EU) has advocated an emission reduction target for developed countries of 80% to 95% below the 1990 level by 2050, and a global reduction target of 50%. Develo** countries have resisted t...
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Open AccessThe role of the land use, land use change and forestry sector in achieving Annex I reduction pledges
Annex I Parties may receive credits or debits from Land Use, Land Use Change and Forestry (LULUCF) activities, contributing to achieving individual emission reduction targets. In the Durban climate negotiation...
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The impact of surplus units from the first Kyoto period on achieving the reduction pledges of the Cancún Agreements
Countries with emission levels below their emission allowances have surplus Assigned Amount Units (AAUs) or other emission credits. Under the Kyoto Protocol, these surplus credits may effectively be carried fr...
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The benefits of climate change mitigation in integrated assessment models: the role of the carbon cycle and climate component
Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are an important tool to compare the costs and benefits of different climate policies. Recently, attention has been given to the effect of different discounting methods and ...
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Copenhagen Accord Pledges imply higher costs for staying below 2°C warming
This study compares emission pathways aimed at limiting temperature increase to 2°C under varying constraints. In a first set of pathways, the timing of emission reductions is such that over the 2010–2100 peri...
