Abstract—
The paper discusses retrospective trends and a scenario forecast of consumption and production of agricultural commodities and food in the EAEU countries, identifies the factors that contribute to and prevent the aggravation of contradictions in the mutual trade in agricultural products in the long term.
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For example, Russia introduced temporary restrictions on the import of dairy products from Belarus in 2009, 2010, 2012, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, on the import of meat products in 2013, 2014, 2016, 2017, 2018, 2019, 2020, on the import of apples and pears in 2019, as well as the import of meat products from Kazakhstan in 2018, 2019, 2020 [1].
At the population that is 80% of the population of the EAEU.
In 2018, Belarus and Kazakhstan accounted for 5% and 10% of the population of the EAEU.
This testifies to the practice of reexporting fruits and vegetables from the EU and Ukraine to Russia, against which Russian counter-sanctions are acting.
The bulk of the supply on the Kazakhstan sugar market is formed by import of sugar and import of raw cane sugar, which is processed domestically. In recent years, there has been a tendency to reduction in the import of raw cane sugar with an increase in the supply of sugar from the EAEU countries. On the one hand, this expands the domestic market for sugar producers in the EAEU, but, on the other hand, it reduces the load on sugar plants in Kazakhstan, which do not have their own raw material base for beet sugar production. The desire of the Kazakh authorities to support local sugar plants with measures of foreign trade regulation gives rise to another contradiction between the EAEU countries in the practice of mutual trade in agricultural products.
Kazakhstan is one of the world leaders in terms of flour exports.
Pig meat production in Kazakhstan is poorly developed for religious reasons.
Attention should be paid to significant discrepancies in the official data of Kyrgyzstan (as well as Kazakhstan and Armenia) on the average per capita consumption of basic foodstuffs with the balance estimates obtained as the ratio of the fund of personal consumption of the corresponding products to the population size. We will use the calculated values of consumption here and in constructing the scenario forecast.
Sugar imports exceeded domestic consumption due to stocks increase.
The scenario hypotheses and results of assessing the capacity of domestic markets for all EAEU countries except Russia will coincide in scenarios 1 and 2. For the EAEU as a whole, the difference between the estimates of the domestic market capacity in the considered scenarios will reflect the impact of targeted social support policies in Russia.
For some other types of agri-food products (grain, vegetable oils), the condition of maintaining balance in the domestic market is also a large-scale increase in net exports to third countries, but it seems quite feasible.
At the current rate of increase in domestic production (in 2019, approximately 700 000 tons of milk and 200 000 tons of fruits and berries), the implementation of the target settings of the Food Security Doctrine of the Russian Federation will take approximately 20–25 years.
In 2020, the decisions were already taken on targeted support for families with children. But the impact of these measures on the food market is limited. The mechanisms of social assistance have yet to be developed in order to effectively transform this support into additional demand for foods whose consumption needs to be increased. According to the roughest estimates, budget expenditures on stimulating domestic food demand in the coming years may correspond to the volumes that were planned to be spent on the “food cards” program (240 bln rubles) and increase them 3–4 times by 2035 (at constant prices, at assigned volumes of consumption).
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National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic. http://www.stat.kg/ru/.
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M. Yu. Ksenofontov, D. A. Polzikov, Yu. S. Verbitskii, and Ya. S. Mel’nikova, “Development of dairy farming in the context of food security policy in Russia,” Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 29, 367–376 (2018).
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This study was carried out with the financial support of the Foundation for Basic Research as a part of research within the framework of scientific project no. 19-010-01075 A.
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The authors declare that they have no conflicts of interest.
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Translated by L. Solovyova
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Ksenofontov, M.Y., Polzikov, D.A. & Urus, A.V. Scenarios of the EAEU Agricultural Market Development in the Long Term. Stud. Russ. Econ. Dev. 31, 700–716 (2020). https://doi.org/10.1134/S107570072006009X
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1134/S107570072006009X