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Spatiotemporal assessment of vulnerability of the agriculture sector to climate change in Madhya Pradesh, India

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Abstract

Madhya Pradesh, the central state of India, has a larger share of the population depending on the agricultural sector, mainly belonging to tribal groups and are largely marginal and small landholders. Though the sector performed a double-digit growth rate in recent years, this is skewed towards very few districts, whereas others remain neglected. These increasing disparities may lead to increased vulnerability to climate change in the backward districts of this sector. This study assessed the spatial and temporal vulnerability of the sector to climate change with the agricultural vulnerability index prepared using the IPCC approach at the district level for 5 decades (1970s–2010s). Hotspots of agricultural vulnerability where targeted policy interventions are required were located. Through spatial autocorrelation techniques, we identified whether the clustering of agricultural vulnerability exists and detected changes over the decades. This study has wide applications for the agricultural sector in Madhya Pradesh and other Indian states, which possess similar agricultural characteristics.

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Fig. 1

Source: Authors’ preparation using QGIS

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Source: Authors’ preparation

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Source: Authors’ preparation using QGIS

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Source: Authors’ preparation using QGIS

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Source: Authors’ preparation using QGIS

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Source: Authors’ preparation using QGIS

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Source: Authors’ preparation using GeoDa

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Source: Authors’ preparation using GeoDa

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Data availability

The datasets used for the study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request.

Notes

  1. Though the last period of study has only 6 years, it is also referred as decade as it represents 2010s.

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  1. School of Humanities and Social Sciences, Indian Institute of Technology Indore, Khandwa Road, Simrol, Madhya Pradesh, 453552, India

    Alinda George & Pritee Sharma

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  1. Alinda George
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Appendix

Appendix

See Tables 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13

Table 3 Districts used in the study and new districts merged to it
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Table 4 Descriptive statistics of the variables used to create AVI
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Table 5 Rotated component matrix of PCA for Exposure Index
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Table 6 Rotated component matrix of PCA for Sensitivity Index
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Table 7 Rotated component matrix of PCA for Adaptive Capacity Index
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Table 8 Districts under different levels of AVI and subindices in 5 decades
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Table 9 Districts under very high vulnerability in 5 decades
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Table 10 Results of ANOVA of Exposure Index for 5 decades
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Table 11 Results of ANOVA of Sensitivity Index for 5 decades
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Table 12 Results of ANOVA of Adaptive Capacity Index for 5 decades
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Table 13 Results of ANOVA of AVI for 5 decades
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George, A., Sharma, P. Spatiotemporal assessment of vulnerability of the agriculture sector to climate change in Madhya Pradesh, India. Asia-Pac J Reg Sci 8, 615–649 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s41685-024-00338-6

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