Log in

Robust Portfolio Selection with Distributional Uncertainty and Integer Constraints

  • Published:
Journal of the Operations Research Society of China Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

This paper studies a robust portfolio selection problem with distributional ambiguity and integer constraint. Different from the assumption that the expected returns of risky assets are known, we define an ambiguity set containing the true probability distribution based on Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence. In contrast to the traditional portfolio optimization model, the invested amounts of risky assets are integers, which is more in line with the real trading scenario. For tractability, we transform the resulting semi-infinite programming into a convex mixed-integer nonlinear programming (MINLP) problem by using Fenchel duality. To solve the convex MINLP problem efficiently, a modified generalized Benders decomposition (GBD) method is proposed. Through the back-test of real market data, the performance of the proposed model is not sensitive to the input parameters. Therefore, the proposed method has much importance value for both individual and institutional investors.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
EUR 32.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or Ebook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price includes VAT (Canada)

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Fig. 1
Fig. 2
Fig. 3
Fig. 4

Similar content being viewed by others

Notes

  1. https://sourceforge.net/projects/lpsolve/.

  2. Here \(\beta _{p}\) is a measure of how much systematic risk (see [60]).

References

  1. Markowitz, H.: Portfolio selection. J. Finance 7(1), 77–91 (1952)

    Google Scholar 

  2. Konno, H., Yamazaki, H.: Mean-absolute deviation portfolio optimization model and its applications to Tokyo stock market. Manag. Sci. 37(5), 519–531 (1991)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  3. Konno, H., Waki, H., Yuuki, A.: Portfolio optimization under lower partial risk measures. Asia-Pacific Finance Mark. 9, 127–140 (2002)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  4. Zhou, W., Xu, Z.-S.: Expected hesitant var for tail decision making under probabilistic hesitant fuzzy environment. Appl. Soft Comput. 60, 297–311 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  5. Zhou, W., Xu, Z.-S.: Portfolio selection and risk investment under the hesitant fuzzy environment. Knowl.-Based Syst. 144, 21–31 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  6. Zhou, W., Xu, Z.-S.: Hesitant fuzzy linguistic portfolio model with variable risk appetite and its application in the investment ratio calculation. Appl. Soft Comput. 84, 105719 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  7. Rockafellar, R.T., Uryasev, S.: Optimization of conditional value-at-risk. J. Risk 29(1), 1071–1074 (2000)

    Google Scholar 

  8. Rockafellar, R.T., Uryasev, S.: Conditional value-at-risk for general loss distributions. J. Bank. Finance 26(7), 1443–1471 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  9. Zhu, S.-S., Fukushima, M.: Worst-case conditional Value-at-Risk with application to robust portfolio management. Oper. Res. 57(5), 1155–1168 (2009)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  10. Pflug, G.C.: Some remarks on the value-at-risk and the conditional value-at-risk. Probab. Constrained Optim. 49, 272–281 (2000)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  11. Konno, H., Yamamoto, R.: Global optimization versus integer programming in portfolio optimization under nonconvex transaction costs. J. Glob. Optim. 32(2), 207–219 (2005)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  12. Li, H.-L., Tsai, J.: A distributed computation algorithm for solving portfolio problems with integer variables. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 186(2), 882–891 (2008)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  13. Bonami, P., Lejeune, M.A.: An exact solution approach for portfolio optimization problems under stochastic and integer constraints. Oper. Res. 57(3), 650–670 (2009)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  14. Wang, M.-H., Xu, C.-X., Xu, F.-M., Xue, H.-G.: A mixed 0 – 1 LP for index tracking problem with CVaR risk constraints. Ann. Oper. Res. 196(1), 591–609 (2012)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  15. Wang, S.-M., Wang, B., Watada, J.: Adaptive budget-portfolio investment optimization under risk tolerance ambiguity. IEEE Trans. Fuzzy Syst. 25(2), 363–376 (2017)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  16. El Ghaoui, L., Oks, M., Oustry, F.: Worst-case value-at-risk and robust portfolio optimization: a conic programming approach. Oper. Res. 51(4), 543–556 (2003)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  17. Goldfarb, D., Iyengar, G.: Robust portfolio selection problems. Math. Oper. Res. 28(1), 1–38 (2003)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  18. Zymler, S., Rustem, B., Kuhn, D.: Robust portfolio optimization with derivative insurance guarantees. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 210(2), 410–424 (2017)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  19. Lotfi, S., Zenios, S.A.: Robust VaR and CVaR optimization under joint ambiguity in distributions, means, and covariances. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 269(2), 556–576 (2018)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  20. Min, L.-Y., Dong, J.-W., Liu, J.-W., Gong, X.-M.: Robust mean-risk portfolio optimization using machine learning-based trade-off parameter. Appl. Soft Comput. 113, 107948 (2021)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  21. Kang, Z.-L., Li, X., Li, Z.-F., Zhu, S.-S.: Data-driven robust mean-CVaR portfolio selection under distribution ambiguity. Quant. Finance 19, 105–121 (2019)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  22. Kang, Z.-L., Li, X.-Y., Li, Z.-F.: Mean-CVaR portfolio selection model with ambiguity in distribution and attitude. J. Ind. Manag. Optim. 16 (2020)

  23. Luan, F., Zhang, W.-G., Liu, Y.-J.: Robust international portfolio optimization with worst-case mean-CVaR. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 303, 877–890 (2022)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  24. Benati, S., Conde, E.: A relative robust approach on expected returns with bounded CVaR for portfolio selection. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 296, 332–352 (2022)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  25. Huang, R.-P., Qu, S.-J., Yang, X.-G., Xu, F.-M., Xu, Z.-S., Zhou, W.: Sparse portfolio selection with uncertain probability distribution. Appl. Intell. 51, 6665–6684 (2021)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  26. Goh, J., Sim, M.: Distributionally robust optimization and its tractable approximations. Oper. Res. 58(4), 902–917 (2010)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  27. Delage, E., Ye, Y.: Distributionally robust optimization under moment uncertainty with application to data-driven problems. Oper. Res. 58(3), 595–612 (2010)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  28. Zymler, S., Kuhn, D., Rustem, B.: Distributionally robust joint chance constraints with second-order moment information. Math. Program. 137(1–2), 167–198 (2013)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  29. Wang, Z.-Z., Glynn, P.W., Ye, Y.-Y.: Likelihood robust optimization for data-driven problems. CMS 13(2), 241–261 (2016)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  30. Rujeerapaiboon, N., Kuhn, D., Wiesemann, W.: Robust growth-optimal portfolios. Manag. Sci. 62(7), 2090–2109 (2016)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  31. Postek, K., Bental, A., Den Hertog, D., Melenberg, B.: Robust optimization with ambiguous stochastic constraints under mean and dispersion information. Oper. Res. 66(3), 814–833 (2018)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  32. Han, Y.-F., Qu, S.-J., Wu, Z., Huang, R.-P.: Robust consensus models based on minimum cost with an application to marketing plan. J. Intell. Fuzzy Syst. 37(4), 5655–5668 (2019)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  33. Lee, S., Moon, I.: Robust empty container repositioning considering foldable containers. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 280(3), 909–925 (2020)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  34. Gokalp, E., Umit, B.: A robust disaster preparedness model for effective and fair disaster response. Eur. J. Oper. Res. 280(2), 479–494 (2020)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  35. Huang, R.-P., Qu, S.-J., Yang, X.-G., Liu, Z.-M.: Multi-stage distributionally robust optimization with risk aversion. J. Ind. Manag. Optim. 17(1), 233–259 (2021)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  36. Ren, L., Zhu, B., Xu, Z.-S.: Robust consumer preference analysis with a social network. Inf. Sci. 566, 379–400 (2021)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  37. Calafiore, G.C.: Ambiguous risk measures and optimal robust portfolios. SIAM J. Optim. 18, 853–877 (2007)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  38. Jiang, R.-W., Guan, Y.-P.: Data-driven chance constrained stochastic program. Math. Program. 158, 291–327 (2016)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  39. Ji, R., Lejeune, M.A., Fan, Z.: Distributionally robust portfolio optimization with linearized STARR performance measure. Quant. Finance 22, 113–127 (2022)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  40. Bonami, P., Biegler, L.T., Conn, A.R., Cornuejols, G., Grossmann, I.E., Laird, C.D., Lee, J., Lodi, A., Margot, F., Sawaya, N.W., et al.: An algorithmic framework for convex mixed integer nonlinear programs. Discrete Optim. 5(2), 186–204 (2008)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  41. Gupta, O.K., Ravindran, A.: Branch and bound experiments in convex nonlinear integer programming. Manag. Sci. 31(12), 1533–1546 (1985)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  42. Leandro, P.: Statistical Inference Based on Divergence Measures. Chapman and Hall/CRC, Boca Raton (2006)

    MATH  Google Scholar 

  43. Ben-Tal, A., Hertog, D.D., Waegenaere, A.D., Melenberg, B., Rennen, G.: Robust solutions of optimization problems affected by uncertain probabilities. Manag. Sci. 59(2), 341–57 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  44. Ben-Tal, A., Hertog, D.D., Vial, J.P.: Deriving robust counterparts of nonlinear uncertain inequalities. Math. Program. 149(1–2), 265–299 (2015)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  45. Rockafellar, R.T.: Convex analysis. In: Princeton Landmarks in Mathematics and Physics (1970)

  46. Fan, K.: Minimax theorems. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA 39(1), 42–47 (1953)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  47. Boyd, S., Vandenberghe, L.: Convex Optimization. Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK, pp. 79–213 (2004)

  48. Geoffrion, A.M.: Generalized benders decomposition. J. Optim. Theory Appl. 10(4), 237–260 (1972)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  49. Fama, E.F., French, K.R.: Permanent and temporary components of stock prices. J. Polit. Econ. 96(2), 246–273 (1988)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  50. Andrew, W.L.: Long-term memory in stock market prices. Econometrica 59(5), 1279–1313 (1991)

    Article  MATH  Google Scholar 

  51. Granger, C.W.J., Ding, Z.: Varieties of long memory models. J. Econ. 73(1), 61–77 (1996)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  52. Henry, O.T.: Long memory in stock returns: some international evidence. Appl. Financial Econ. 12(10), 725–729 (2002)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  53. Boubaker, H., Sghaier, N.: Portfolio optimization in the presence of dependent financial returns with long memory: a copula based approach. J. Bank. Finance 37(2), 361–377 (2013)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  54. Chen, C.Y., Chiang, T.C., Hardle, W.: Downside risk and stock returns in the G7 countries: an empirical analysis of their long-run and short-run dynamics. J. Bank. Finance 93(8), 21–32 (2018)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  55. Löfberg, J.: Yalmip : a toolbox for modeling and optimization in matlab. Optimization 2004(3), 284–289 (2004)

    Google Scholar 

  56. Jarque, C.M., Bera, A.K.: Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals. Econ. Lett. 7(4), 313–318 (1981)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  57. Sharpe, W.F.: The sharpe ratio. J. Portf. Manag. 21(1), 49–58 (1994)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  58. Mencia, J., Sentana, E.: Multivariate location-scale mixtures of normals and mean-variance-skewness portfolio allocation. J. Econ. 153(2), 105–121 (2009)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

  59. Aragon, G.O., Ferson, W.E.: Portfolio performance evaluation. Found. Trends Finance 2(2), 83–190 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  60. Fama, E.F., French, K.R.: The value premium and the CAPM. J. Finance 61(5), 2163–2185 (2006)

    Article  Google Scholar 

  61. DeMiguel, V.: Garlappi, Lorenzo, Uppal: Optimal versus naive diversification: How inefficient is the 1/n portfolio strategy? Rev. Financial Stud. 22(5), 1915–1953 (2009)

    Article  MathSciNet  Google Scholar 

  62. Goh, J., Sim, M.: Robust optimization made easy with ROME. Oper. Res. 59(4), 973–985 (2009)

    Article  MathSciNet  MATH  Google Scholar 

Download references

Acknowledgements

The authors are thankful to the editors and anonymous referees. Their comments and suggestions will greatly help us to improve this paper.

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

Authors

Contributions

In this paper, R.-P. Huang is in charge of methodology, model, software, and writing-original draft. Z.-S. Xu is in charge of conceptualization, methodology, and formal analysis. S.-J. Qu is in charge of methodology, supervision, and project administration. X.-G. Yang is in charge of methodology and the correctness of paper writing. M. Goh is in charge of methodology and the correctness of paper writing.

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Shao-Jian Qu.

Ethics declarations

Conflict of interest

The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Rights and permissions

Springer Nature or its licensor (e.g. a society or other partner) holds exclusive rights to this article under a publishing agreement with the author(s) or other rightsholder(s); author self-archiving of the accepted manuscript version of this article is solely governed by the terms of such publishing agreement and applicable law.

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Check for updates. Verify currency and authenticity via CrossMark

Cite this article

Huang, RP., Xu, ZS., Qu, SJ. et al. Robust Portfolio Selection with Distributional Uncertainty and Integer Constraints. J. Oper. Res. Soc. China (2023). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40305-023-00466-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40305-023-00466-4

Keywords

Mathematics Subject Classification

Navigation