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Forecasting and controlling of municipal solid waste (MSW) in the Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, by using system dynamics modeling

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Abstract

Municipal solid waste (MSW) management is a prime concern for municipal governments in order to safeguard human health, the environment, and natural resources. An accurate prediction of MSW generation might serve as the basis for strategies for the effective and efficient management of MSW. Because different factors might influence waste trends, an accurate prediction of waste generation is required for proper waste management system design. This project aims to develop a system dynamics model for MSW forecasting and control based on population, economy, and waste. The simulation and quantitative analysis were performed using the system dynamics (SD) technique, with Kaohsiung City, one of the special economic zones in southern Taiwan, serving as the empirical example. The stock-and-flow SD model was constructed using model structure analysis, and the causal loop diagram on MSW generation was depicted in the VENSIM interface. According to the modeling results, MSW generation in Kaohsiung City would reach 3040 thousand tonnes by 2030. This amount might be reduced by introducing waste sorting and recycling initiatives and increasing waste charges. The results of this research might provide the waste management department of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, with valuable instructions for taking efficient and timely steps for the correct management and utilization of the massive volume of solid waste.

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Acknowledgements

We acknowledge that this is an original research work carried out in the Kaohsiung City of Taiwan. All authors have reviewed the article and agree to submit it to the Biomass Conversion and Biorefinery for publication. We confirm that this article is currently not under consideration by any other journal.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Environmental Science and Engineering, National **tung University of Science and Technology, 1 Shuefu Road, Neipu Township, **tung County, 91201, Taiwan

    Hung-To Yang & How-Ran Chao

  2. Department of Information Technology, Meiho University, Neipu Township, **tung County, 912, Taiwan

    Hung-To Yang

  3. Department of Information Management, Meiho University, Neipu Township, **tung County, 912, Taiwan

    Yuan-Fei Cheng

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  1. Hung-To Yang
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Contributions

Conceptualization and software: Hung-To Yang; methodology: How-Ran Chao; writing—original draft preparation: Yuan-Fei Cheng.

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Correspondence to Hung-To Yang.

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Yang, HT., Chao, HR. & Cheng, YF. Forecasting and controlling of municipal solid waste (MSW) in the Kaohsiung City, Taiwan, by using system dynamics modeling. Biomass Conv. Bioref. 14, 9571–9579 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s13399-022-02897-0

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