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Modelling the response of common carp (Cyprinus carpio) to natural and managed flows using a stochastic population model

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Abstract

Common carp (Cyprinus carpio; hereafter carp) is a highly invasive freshwater fish that has colonised river basins across the world causing ecological degradation. In regulated rivers, restoration of natural flow regimes to rehabilitate aquatic ecosystems is a primary focus of environmental management, yet some actions (e.g., environmental water delivery or artificial floodplain inundations) may have unintended consequences including favouring carp. We developed a stochastic population model to represent carp population responses to hydrology and management actions. The model uses current understanding of carp life history, including different survival rates of early life-stages for a range of habitat types, to estimate population responses to various flow/inundation scenarios. Using case studies from two major regions of a large, regulated dryland river, we demonstrate that large natural floods and prolonged droughts accounted for the greatest amplitude of projected carp population increases and declines, respectively. Within-channel flow pulses and small floods, which are a primary focus of environmental flows, appeared to have little influence on long-term carp population trajectories. Artificial inundations generated by floodplain infrastructure, however, caused significant carp recruitment compared to baseline scenarios. Large natural floodplain inundations also maintained high carp biomasses and thus likely high impacts on natural ecological values. The carp population model captures the response of carp to flows and artificial floodplain inundation and will inform environmental managers on the likely trade-offs between achieving restoration of natural ecological values and suppressing a globally invasive fish.

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Acknowledgements

The authors wish to thank Brian Lawrence, Heleena Bamford and Katie Ryan (Murray-Darling Basin Authority), Andy Huxham (Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder) and Mark Lintermans (University of Canberra) for their support and assistance in develo** the carp population model, and to Rebecca Turner (Department for Environment and Water, South Australia) and Iwona Conlan (NSW DPIE) for support and assistance with develo** the case studies. Thanks to Dean Gilligan and Paul Brown for providing carp age data. Thanks also to Andrew Boulton, and anonymous reviewers for their very helpful comments on this manuscript. Finally, thanks to Adrian Kitchingman for producing Figure 1. The production of this paper was supported by the Applied Aquatic Ecology writing retreat through the Arthur Rylah Institute Capability Fund.

Funding

CRT and JDK were partly funded by the Murray Darling Basin Authority, Department for Environment and Water, South Australia and NSW DPIE. HFW and IGS were partly funded by Department for Environment and Water, South Australia and NSW DPIE.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Applied Aquatic Ecology Arthur Rylah Institute, Department of Environment, Land, Water and Planning, 123 Brown Street, Heidelberg, VIC, 3084, Australia

    Charles R. Todd, John D. Koehn, Ivor G. Stuart, Henry F. Wootton & Kasey Stamation

  2. Gulbali Institute for Agriculture, Water and Environment, Charles Sturt University, P.O. Box 789, Albury, NSW, 2640, Australia

    John D. Koehn & Ivor G. Stuart

  3. Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO), LOCKED BAG 2, Glen Osmond, SA, 5064, Australia

    Brenton P. Zampatti

  4. Inland Waters and Catchment Ecology Program, SARDI Aquatic Sciences, PO Box 120, Henley Beach, SA, 5022, Australia

    Leigh Thwaites, Qifeng Ye & Chris Bice

  5. Biodiversity, Conservation and Science Directorate, Department of Planning and Environment, 512 Dean St, Albury, NSW, 2640, Australia

    Anthony Conallin

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  1. Charles R. Todd
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  2. John D. Koehn
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  10. Chris Bice
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Contributions

All authors contributed to the study conception and design. Material preparation, data collection and analysis were performed by Charles R. Todd and Henry F. Wootton, population model developed by Charles R. Todd. The first draft of the manuscript was written by Charles R Todd and all authors commented on previous versions of the manuscript. All authors have read and approved the final manuscript.

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Correspondence to Charles R. Todd.

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Todd, C.R., Koehn, J.D., Stuart, I.G. et al. Modelling the response of common carp (Cyprinus carpio) to natural and managed flows using a stochastic population model. Biol Invasions 26, 1437–1456 (2024). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10530-024-03247-z

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