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Simple mathematical model for predicting COVID-19 outbreaks in Japan based on epidemic waves with a cyclical trend
BackgroundSeveral models have been used to predict outbreaks during the COVID-19 pandemic, with limited success. We developed a simple mathematical...
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Spatiotemporally Explicit Epidemic Model for West Nile Virus Outbreak in Germany: An Inversely Calibrated Approach
Since the first autochthonous transmission of West Nile Virus was detected in Germany (WNV) in 2018, it has become endemic in several parts of the...
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Nesting the SIRV model with NAR, LSTM and statistical methods to fit and predict COVID-19 epidemic trend in Africa
ObjectiveCompared with other regions in the world, the transmission characteristics of the COVID-19 epidemic in Africa are more obvious, has a unique...
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Wording the trajectory of the three-year COVID-19 epidemic in a general population – Belgium
The trajectory of COVID-19 epidemic waves in the general population of Belgium was analysed by defining quantitative criteria for epidemic waves...
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A quantitative assessment of the consistency of projections from five mathematical models of the HIV epidemic in South Africa: a model comparison study
BackgroundMathematical models are increasingly used to inform HIV policy and planning. Comparing estimates obtained using different mathematical...
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Assessing the transmissibility of epidemics involving epidemic zoning
BackgroundEpidemic zoning is an important option in a series of measures for the prevention and control of infectious diseases. We aim to accurately...
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A potential transition from a concentrated to a generalized HIV epidemic: the case of Madagascar
BackgroundHIV expansion is controlled by a range of interrelated factors, including the natural history of HIV infection and socio-economical and...
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Age-specific transmission dynamics under suppression control measures during SARS-CoV-2 Omicron BA.2 epidemic
BackgroundFrom March to June 2022, an Omicron BA.2 epidemic occurred in Shanghai. We aimed to better understand the transmission dynamics and...
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The impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions on the first COVID-19 epidemic wave in South Africa
ObjectiveIn this study, we investigated the impact of COVID-19 NPIs in South Africa to understand their effectiveness in the reduction of...
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SpatialWavePredict: a tutorial-based primer and toolbox for forecasting growth trajectories using the ensemble spatial wave sub-epidemic modeling framework
BackgroundDynamical mathematical models defined by a system of differential equations are typically not easily accessible to non-experts. However,...
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Mean generation function model in AIDS epidemic estimation
BackgroundSince the first case of HIV infection was reported in China in 1985, the incidence and mortality of AIDS have been increasing rapidly,...
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Brief Report: Determinants of Potential Sexual Activity Reduction in the Face of the Mpox Epidemic
BackgroundThe current mpox epidemic is most prevalent among men-who-have-sex-with-men (MSM). Vaccination programs are being rolled-out to curb the...
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The effect of interpersonal relationship and epidemic attention on negative emotion among medical students: the mediating role of social satisfaction
BackgroundIndividuals are required to avoid close contact to reduce the probability of contracting the virus during the epidemics, which can lead to...
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Analytical estimation of maximum fraction of infected individuals with one-shot non-pharmaceutical intervention in a hybrid epidemic model
BackgroundFacing a global epidemic of new infectious diseases such as COVID-19, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), which reduce transmission...
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Spatio-temporal dynamic of the COVID-19 epidemic and the impact of imported cases in Rwanda
IntroductionAfrica was threatened by the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) due to the limited health care infrastructure. Rwanda has consistently...
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Modelling the impact of hybrid immunity on future COVID-19 epidemic waves
BackgroundSince the emergence of SARS-CoV-2 (COVID-19), there have been multiple waves of infection and multiple rounds of vaccination rollouts. Both...
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Place of death in France: impact of the first wave (March–May 2020) of the Covid-19 epidemic
BackgroundThe Covid-19 epidemic entailed a major public health issue in France challenging the efficiency of the public health system. The...
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Interruption time series analysis using autoregressive integrated moving average model: evaluating the impact of COVID-19 on the epidemic trend of gonorrhea in China
BackgroundInterrupted time series (ITS) analysis is a growing method for assessing intervention impacts on diseases. However, it remains unstudied...
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Daily Effects of COVID-19 News on Personal Protective Behaviors Through COVID-19 Anxiety: The Significance of Direct Wuhan Epidemic Experience
BackgroundDrawing on cognitive appraisal theory, this study investigates the effect of daily COVID-19 news on daily anxiety and protective behaviors...
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COVID-19 epidemic modelling for policy decision support in Victoria, Australia 2020–2021
BackgroundPolicy responses to COVID-19 in Victoria, Australia over 2020–2021 have been supported by evidence generated through mathematical...
