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Probabilistic Wind Gust Forecasting during the 2022 Bei**g Winter Olympics
The probabilistic forecast of wind gusts poses a significant challenge during the post-processing of numerical model outputs. Comparative analysis of...
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Transformer for sub-seasonal extreme high temperature probabilistic forecasting over eastern China
Sub-seasonal high temperature forecasting is significant for early warning of extreme heat weather. Currently, deep learning methods, especially...
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Evaluating Markov chains and Bayesian networks as probabilistic meteorological drought forecasting tools in the seasonally dry tropics of Costa Rica
Meteorological drought is a climatic phenomenon that affects all global climates with social, political, and economic impacts. Consequently, it is...
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Probabilistic forecasting of Super Cyclone ‘Amphan’ using NCMRWF global and regional ensemble prediction systems
Probabilistic forecasting of tropical cyclone (TC) from ensemble prediction systems provides flow-dependent uncertainty associated with the model...
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Calibrated probabilistic sub-seasonal forecasting for Pakistan’s monsoon rainfall in 2022
In 2022, a record-breaking monsoon caused flooding throughout Pakistan, particularly in the southern regions, resulting in deaths, property losses,...
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Evaluation of short-term probabilistic eruption forecasting at Whakaari, New Zealand
Phreatic explosions at volcanoes are difficult to forecast but can be locally devastating, as illustrated by the deadly 2019 Whakaari (New Zealand)...
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Towards real-time probabilistic ash deposition forecasting for New Zealand
Volcanic ashfall forecasts are highly dependent on eruption source parameters (ESPs) and synoptic weather conditions at the time and location of the...
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A new hybrid method for establishing point forecasting, interval forecasting, and probabilistic forecasting of landslide displacement
In addition to its inherent evolution trend, landslide displacement contains strong fluctuation and randomness, and omni-directional landslide...
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Rockburst and Gas Outburst Forecasting using a Probabilistic Risk Assessment Framework in Longwall Top Coal Caving Faces
A probabilistic risk assessment framework was developed to mathematically represent the complex engineering phenomena of rock bursts and gas...
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Enhancing Flooding Depth Forecasting Accuracy in an Urban Area Using a Novel Trend Forecasting Method
Accurate flood runoff and water level predictions are crucial research topics due to their significance for early warning systems, particularly in...
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Probabilistic rainy season onset prediction over the greater horn of africa based on long-range multi-model ensemble forecasts
This works proposes a probabilistic framework for rainy season onset forecasts over Greater Horn of Africa derived from bias-corrected, long range,...
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Evaluation of the Added Value of Probabilistic Nowcasting Ensemble Forecasts on Regional Ensemble Forecasts
Ensemble forecasting systems have become an important tool for estimating the uncertainties in initial conditions and model formulations and they are...
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Probabilistic Estimates of Variations in Applied Indicators of the Thermal Regime for the Adaptation to Climate Change in Russia
AbstractPossibilities of using the basic technology of probabilistic scenario forecasting of the regional climate to obtain detailed estimates of...
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Towards scientific forecasting of magmatic eruptions
Forecasting eruptions is a fundamental goal of volcanology. However, difficulties in identifying eruptive precursors, fragmented approaches and lack...
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Hypothesis testing for performance evaluation of probabilistic seasonal rainfall forecasts
A hypothesis testing approach, based on the theorem of probability integral transformation and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov one-sample test, for...
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A Recombination Clustering Technique for Forecasting of Tropical Cyclone Tracks Based on the CMA-TRAMS Ensemble Prediction System
Despite marked improvements in tropical cyclone (TC) track ensemble forecasting, forecasters still have difficulty in making quick decisions when...
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FlowDIR: a MATLAB tool for rapidly and probabilistically forecasting the travel directions of volcanic flows
We present FlowDIR, a MATLAB tool that rapidly and objectively quantifies future travel direction probabilities for topographically controlled...
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Experience in Applying Probabilistic Approaches in Predicting the Level Regime of the Marmarik River
AbstractThe possibility of short-term and long-term forecasting of water levels, including those associated with dangerous hydrological phenomena on...
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Scientific Advances and Weather Services of the China Meteorological Administration’s National Forecasting Systems during the Bei**g 2022 Winter Olympics
Since the Bei**g 2022 Winter Olympics was the first Winter Olympics in history held in continental winter monsoon climate conditions across complex...
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Forecasting tectonic tremor activity using a renewal process model
In many tectonically active regions of the world, a variety of slow deformation phenomena have been discovered and collectively termed slow...
