Search
Search Results
-
Evaluation and correction of sub-seasonal dynamic model forecast of precipitation in eastern China
Assessing the capability of sub-seasonal rainfall forecast of dynamic model and proposing correction method is quite an important topic in current...
-
Improved forecast of 2015/16 El Niño event in an experimental coupled seasonal ensemble forecasting system
To improve NOAA’s seasonal forecasting capabilities, a new coupled system within the Unified Forecast System (UFS) framework is being developed...
-
Prediction of Seasonal Tropical Cyclone Activity in the NUIST-CFS1.0 Forecast System
Prediction skill for the seasonal tropical cyclone (TC) activity in the Northern Hemisphere is investigated using the coupled climate forecast system...
-
Seasonal prediction of North American wintertime cold extremes in the GFDL SPEAR forecast system
Skillful prediction of wintertime cold extremes on seasonal time scales is beneficial for multiple sectors. This study demonstrates that North...
-
Climate forecast skill and teleconnections on seasonal time scales over Central Africa based on the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME)
This study examines the skill of the North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) seasonal precipitation forecast and the influence of tropical sea...
-
Impact of the initial stratospheric polar vortex state on East Asian spring rainfall prediction in seasonal forecast models
The possible impact of the stratospheric polar vortex on East Asian spring rainfall and the representation of this effect in seasonal forecast models...
-
Seasonal Characteristics of Forecasting Uncertainties in Surface PM2.5 Concentration Associated with Forecast Lead Time over the Bei**g-Tian**-Hebei Region
Forecasting uncertainties among meteorological fields have long been recognized as the main limitation on the accuracy and predictability of air...
-
Winter precipitation predictability in Central Southwest Asia and its representation in seasonal forecast systems
In Central Southwest Asia (CSWA; 22°N to 40°N and 30°E to 70°E), winter (November to February) precipitation contributes up to 70% of the annual...
-
Evaluation of Potential Predictability of Indian Summer Monsoon Rainfall in ECMWF's Fifth-Generation Seasonal Forecast System (SEAS5)
Forecasts of Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR: June to September, JJAS) are issued prior to the onset of rainy season. Thus, an assessment of...
-
Seasonal forecast skill of upper-ocean heat content in coupled high-resolution systems
Ocean heat content (OHC) anomalies typically persist for several months, making this variable a vital component of seasonal predictability in both...
-
Taylor expansion of the correlation metric for an individual forecast evaluation and its application to East Asian sub-seasonal forecasts
This study develops a skill evaluation metric for an individual forecast by applying a Taylor expansion to the commonly-used temporal correlation...
-
Prediction and predictability of boreal winter MJO using a multi-member subseasonal to seasonal forecast system of NUIST (NUIST CFS 1.1)
The Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) provides an important source of global subseasonal-to-seasonal (S2S) predictability, while its prediction remains...
-
Understanding rainfall prediction skill over the Sahel in NMME seasonal forecast
Sahelian rainfall presents large interannual variability which is partly controlled by the sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTa) over the eastern...
-
Exploring the landscape of seasonal forecast provision by Global Producing Centres
Despite the growing demand for seasonal climate forecasts, there is limited understanding of the landscape of organisations providing this critically...
-
Hypothesis testing for performance evaluation of probabilistic seasonal rainfall forecasts
A hypothesis testing approach, based on the theorem of probability integral transformation and the Kolmogorov–Smirnov one-sample test, for...
-
Atmosphere-driven cold SST biases over the western North Pacific in the GloSea5 seasonal forecast system
The predictability of the sea surface temperature (SST) in seasonal forecast systems is crucial for accurate seasonal predictions. In this study, we...
-
Sensitivity of enhanced vertical resolution in the operational Global Forecast System (GFS) T1534 on the short to medium range forecast of Indian summer monsoon
The sensitivity of increased vertical resolution in the present operational global forecast system (GFS) at T1534 (~ 12.5 km) model on the short to...
-
Operational Seasonal Forecasting of the Southwest Monsoon Rainfall
In this paper, various methods used by the India Meteorological Department (IMD) to issue Long-Range Forecast (LRF) of Southwest monsoon rainfall and...
-
Sea surface temperature predictability in the North Pacific from multi-model seasonal forecast
Sea surface temperature (SST) prediction based on the multi-model seasonal forecast with numerous ensemble members have more useful skills to...
-
Sub-seasonal Prediction of the South China Sea Summer Monsoon Onset in the NCEP Climate Forecast System Version 2
This study depicts the sub-seasonal prediction of the South China Sea summer monsoon onset (SCSSMO) and investigates the associated oceanic and...