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Open AccessTransformation starts at the periphery of networks where pushback is less
Complex systems ranging from societies to ecological communities and power grids may be viewed as networks of connected elements. Such systems can go through critical transitions driven by an avalanche of cont...
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Open AccessNorthern expansion is not compensating for southern declines in North American boreal forests
Climate change is expected to shift the boreal biome northward through expansion at the northern and contraction at the southern boundary respectively. However, biome-scale evidence of such a shift is rare. He...
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Open AccessEvaluating the performance of multivariate indicators of resilience loss
Various complex systems, such as the climate, ecosystems, and physical and mental health can show large shifts in response to small changes in their environment. These ‘tip** points’ are notoriously hard to ...
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Open AccessHysteresis of tropical forests in the 21st century
Tropical forests modify the conditions they depend on through feedbacks at different spatial scales. These feedbacks shape the hysteresis (history-dependence) of tropical forests, thus controlling their resili...
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Open AccessInferring causation from time series in Earth system sciences
The heart of the scientific enterprise is a rational effort to understand the causes behind the phenomena we observe. In large-scale complex dynamical systems such as the Earth system, real experiments are rar...
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Open AccessRare, Intense, Big fires dominate the global tropics under drier conditions
Wildfires burn large parts of the tropics every year, sha** ecosystem structure and functioning. Yet the complex interplay between climate, vegetation and human factors that drives fire dynamics is still poo...
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Correction: Corrigendum: Recovery rates reflect distance to a tip** point in a living system
Nature 481, 357–359 (2012) There was a scaling error in the light attenuation values of Fig. 1 and Supplementary Fig. 2.1 (about 210 should have been subtracted from each value). Also, the sentence “We perturb...