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Article
Portfolio selection with probabilistic utility
Inspired by statistical physics, we present a probabilistic approach to portfolio selection. Instead of seeking the global extremum of some chosen utility function, we reinterpret the latter as a probability d...
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Delayed action and uncertain stabilisation targets. How much will the delay cost?
Despite the growing concern about actual on-going climate change, there is little consensus on the scale and timing of actions needed to stabilise the concentrations of greenhouse gases. Many countries are unw...
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Open AccessA Chinese commitment to commit: can it break the negotiation stall?
Preparatory talks to the next round of negotiations seem to indicate that a comprehensive agreement to mitigate climate change will not be easily attainable, despite the intentions of the US administration and...
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Open AccessCounting only the hits? The risk of underestimating the costs of stringent climate policy
This paper warns against the risk of underestimating the costs—and the uncertainty about the costs—of achieving stringent stabilization targets. We argue that a straightforward review of integrated assessment ...
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Nuclear Versus Coal plus CCS: a Comparison of Two Competitive Base-Load Climate Control Options
In this paper, we analyze the relative importance and mutual behavior of two competing base-load electricity generation options that each are capable of contributing significantly to the abatement of global CO2 e...
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Timing of Mitigation and Technology Availability in Achieving a Low-Carbon World
This paper analyzes the economic and investment implications of a series of climate mitigation scenarios, characterized by different levels of ambition for long-term stabilization goals and transitional pathwa...
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Time to act now? Assessing the costs of delaying climate measures and benefits of early action
This paper compares the results of the three state of the art climate-energy-economy models IMACLIM-R, ReMIND-R, and WITCH to assess the costs of climate change mitigation in scenarios in which the implementat...
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The value of technology and of its evolution towards a low carbon economy
This paper assesses the economic value associated with the development of various low-carbon technologies in the context of climate stabilization. We analyze the impact of restrictions on the development of sp...
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Technology innovation and diffusion in “less than ideal” climate policies: An assessment with the WITCH model
This paper examines the dynamics of innovation in low-carbon energy technologies distinguishing between research and development and technology diffusion as a response to alternative climate policies. We asses...
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Open AccessModeling meets science and technology: an introduction to a special issue on negative emissions
This article introduces the Climatic Change special issue dedicated to negative emissions technologies, also known as carbon dioxide removal (CDR) from the atmosphere. CDR is the only class of mitigation optio...
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Open AccessDirect air capture of CO2 and climate stabilization: A model based assessment
This paper provides a novel assessment of the role of direct air capture of CO2 from ambient air (DAC) on the feasibility of achieving stringent climate stabilization. We use the WITCH energy-economy-climate mode...
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Foreword to the special issue: climate change, extremes, and energy systems
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Counting only the hits—a rejoinder
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Human Capital, Innovation, and Climate Policy: an Integrated Assessment
This paper looks at the interplay between human capital and innovation when climate and educational policies are implemented. Following recent empirical studies, human capital and general purpose research and ...
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Innovation benefits from nuclear phase-out: can they compensate the costs?
This paper investigates whether an inefficient allocation of abatement due to constraints on the use of currently available low carbon mitigation options can promote innovation in new technologies and have a p...
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The role of technology for achieving climate policy objectives: overview of the EMF 27 study on global technology and climate policy strategies
This article presents the synthesis of results from the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum Study 27, an inter-comparison of 18 energy-economy and integrated assessment models. The study investigated the importance...
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Harmonization vs. fragmentation: overview of climate policy scenarios in EMF27
This paper synthesizes results of the multi-model Energy Modeling Forum 27 (EMF27) with a focus on climate policy scenarios. The study included two harmonized long-term climate targets of 450 ppm CO2-e (enforced ...
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Betting on negative emissions
Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage could be used to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere. However, its credibility as a climate change mitigation option is unproven and its widespread deployment in...
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Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas
It has been hoped that making abundant natural gas available by hydraulic fracturing (fracking) would reduce greenhouse gas emissions but now modelling shows that increased consumption will have limited effect...
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Post-2020 climate agreements in the major economies assessed in the light of global models
Experts using integrated assessment models to analyse the effects of climate change policy, have recently engaged in model inter-comparison projects (MIPs) to generate conclusions robust to different models' s...