SpringerLink
Log in

Drought changes and the mechanism analysis for the North American Prairie

  • Published:
Journal of Arid Land Aims and scope Submit manuscript

Abstract

The worst droughts in the central part of the North American Prairie in the past several hundred years have been reconstructed from tree-ring chronologies, suggesting that some drought years have exceeded the severity shown by the gauge record. A general circulation model of the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) has simulated climate changes for the area during the past 250 years driven by climatic forces, providing scenarios of extreme climate that can further diagnose the mechanisms. This study refined the drought signals from the tree ring data and GFDL modeling at inter-annual and decadal time scales and analyzed the potential mechanisms driving the droughts. Results showed that drought years with summer precipitation lower than the 10th percentiles occurred during 1777–1789, 1847–1861 and 1886–1879 AD in the area. Both tree rings and model revealed that the frequency of droughts has been relatively consistent in a similar timing and frequency with climate change. Monte Carlo analysis have detected that the tree ring chronologies have recorded drought years with probabilities of 9.3%–12.8%, and the model has simulated the droughts with probabilities 5.7%–17.8%. Under CO2 and aerosol forcing, the GFDL modeled the drought recurrences of 13 years and 25 years, which are very synchronous changes with tree rings and consistent with gauge records. The 20-a and 10-a time scale reoccurrences of droughts are very consistent with solar radiation cycles, and similar to the length of cycles in oceanic records, suggesting that terrestrial precipitation modeling is properly driven from sun-land-sea dynamics. Detected severity, variability and return periods of droughts from the present study make potential improvements in drought predictions and constructing scenarios for climate impacts and adaptation strategies.

This is a preview of subscription content, log in via an institution to check access.

Access this article

Log in via an institution

Subscribe and save

Springer+ Basic
EUR 32.99 /Month
  • Get 10 units per month
  • Download Article/Chapter or Ebook
  • 1 Unit = 1 Article or 1 Chapter
  • Cancel anytime
Subscribe now

Buy Now

Price includes VAT (Germany)

Instant access to the full article PDF.

Institutional subscriptions

Similar content being viewed by others

References

  • Binnema T. 2001. Common and Contested Ground: A Human and Environmental History of the Northwestern Plains. Norman: University of Oklahoma Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Bloomfield P. 2000. Fourier Analysis of Time Series (2nd ed.). London: John Wiley & Sons.

    Book  Google Scholar 

  • Boer G J, Flato G, Ramsden D. 2000. A transient climate change simulation with greenhouse gas and aerosol forcing: projected climate for the 21st century. Climate Dynamics: 16: 427–450.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Bond N A, Harrison D E. 2000. The Pacific Decadal Oscillation, air-sea interaction and central north Pacific winter atmospheric regimes. Geophysical Research Letter, 27: 731–734.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Braconnot P, Harrison S P, Kageyama M, et al. 2012. Evaluation of climate models using palaeoclimatic data. Nature Climate Change, 2: 417–424.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Case R A, MacDonald G M. 1995. Dendroclimatic reconstruction of annual precipitation on the western Canada Prairies since A.D. 1505 from Pinus flexilis James. Quaternary Research, 44: 267–275.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Chatfield C. 1975. The Analysis of Time Series: Theory and Practice. London: Chapman and Hall.

    Google Scholar 

  • Collins M, Osborn T J, Tett S F B, et al. 2002. A comparison of variability of a climate model with paleotemperature estimates from a network of tree ring density. Journal of Climate, 15: 1497–1515.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Cook E R, Kairiukstis L A. 1990. Methods of Dendrochronology—Applications in the Environmental Sciences. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Cook E R, Meko D M, Stockton C W. 1997. A new assessment of possible solar and lunar forcing of the bidecadal drought rhythm in the western United States. Journal of Climate, 10: 1343–1356.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Critchfield W B. 1980. Genetics of Lodgepole Pine. In: USDA Forest Service Research Paper WO-37. Washington, DC: United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service.

    Google Scholar 

  • Crowley T J. 2000. Causes of climate change over the past 1000 years. Science, 289: 270–277.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Delworth T L, Knutson T R. 2000. Simulation of early 20th century global warming. Science, 287: 2246–2250.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Delworth T L, Rsati A, Anderson W, et al. 2012. Simulated climate and climate change in the GFDL CM2.5 high-resolution coupled climate model. Journal of Climate, 25: 2755–2781.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dixon K W, Lanzante J R. 1999. Global mean surface air temperature and North Atlantic overturning in a suite of coupled GCM climate change experiments. Geophysical Research Letters, 26: 1885–1888.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Dixon K W, Delworth T L, Knutson T R, et al. 2003. A comparison of climate change simulations produced by two GFDL coupled climate models. Global and Planetary Change, 37: 81–102.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Findell K L, Delworth T L. 2010. Impact of common sea surface temperature anomalies on global drought and pluvial frequency. Journal of Climate, 23: 485–503.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Frankignoul C. 1999. Analysis of Climate Variability: Applications of Statistical Techniques. New York: Springer Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • Fritt H C, Guiot J. 1990. Methods of calibration, verification and reconstruction. In: Cook E R, Kairiulstis L A. Methods of Dendrochronology. Dordrecht: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

    Google Scholar 

  • George S S, Nielsen E. 2002. Hydroclimatic change in southern Manitoba since A.D. 1409 inferred from tree rings. Quaternary Research, 58: 103–111.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Grissino-Mayer H, Holmes R, Fritts H C. 1996. International Tree Rings Data Bank Program Library User’s Manual. Tucson: Laboratory of Tree-ring Research University of Arizona.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hammersley J M. 1960. Monte Carlo methods for solving multivariable problems. Annual of the New York Academy of Sciences, 86: 844–874.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Haywood J M, Stouffer R J, Wetherald R T, et al. 1997. Transient response of a coupled model to estimated changes in greenhouse gas and sulfate concentrations. Geophysical Research Letters, 24: 1335–1338.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hoffman P. 1998. The Man Who Loved Only Numbers: the Story of Paul Erdos and the Search for Mathematical Truth. New York: Hyperion Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hoyt D V, Schatten K H. 1997. The role of the sun in climate change. Radiocarbon, 35: 215–230.

    Google Scholar 

  • Hurrell J W. 1995. Decadal trends in the North Atlantic Oscillation: regional temperatures and precipitation. Science, 269: 676–679.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Hurrell J W. 2003. Climate Variability: North Atlantic and Arctic Oscillation. In: Holton J, Pyle J, Curry J. Encyclopedia of Atmospheric Sciences. New York: Academic Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • IPCC. 2007. The Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

    Google Scholar 

  • Koster R D, Mahanama S P P, Yamada T J, et al. 2010. Contribution of land surface initialization to subseasonal forecast skill: First results from a multi-model experiment. Geophysical Research Letters, 37, L02402, doi: 10.1029/2009GL041677.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Kutzbach J E, Bartlein P J, Foley J A, et al. 1996. Potential role of vegetation feedback in the climate sensitivity of high-latitude regions: a case study at 6000 years BP. Global Biogeochemical Cycles, 10: 727–736.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Laird K R, Fritz S C, Maasch K A, et al. 1996. Greater drought intensity and frequency before A.D. 1200 in the northern Great Plains, USA. Nature, 384: 552–554.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Liu J L, Stewart R E, Szeto K K. 2004. Moisture transport and other hydrometeorological features associated with the severe 2000/01 drought over the western and central Canadian Prairies. Journal of Climate, 17: 305–319.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Lotan J E, Perry A D. 1977. Fifth-year Seed: Seedling Ratios of Lodgepole Pine by Habitat Type and Seedbed Preparation Technique. In: USDA Forest Service Research Note INT-239. Ogden, Utah: United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Intermountain Forest and Range Experiment Station.

    Google Scholar 

  • Luo L, Wood E F. 2007. Monitoring and predicting the 2007 U.S. drought. Geophysical Research Letters, 34,L22702, doi: 10.1029/2007GL031673.

  • Manabe S, Stouffer R J. 1993. Century-scale effects of increased atmospheric CO2 on the ocean-atmosphere system. Nature, 364: 215–218.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mann M E, Bradley R S, Hughes M K. 1999. Northern hemisphere temperatures during the past millennium: inferences, uncertainties and limitations. Geophysical Research Letters, 26: 759–762.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Mantua N J, Hare S R, Zhang Y, et al. 1997. A Pacific interdecadal climate oscillation with impacts on salmon production. Bulletin American Meteorological Society, 78: 1069–1079.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Meko D M, Therrell M D, Baisan C H, et al. 2001. Sacramento River flow reconstructed to A.D. 869 from tree rings. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 37: 1029–1039.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Minobe S. 1997. A 50–70 year climatic oscillation over the North Pacific and North America. Geophysical Research Letters, 24: 683–686.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Minobe S. 1999. Resonance in bidecadal and pentadecadal climate oscillations over the North Pacific: role in climatic regime shifts. Geophysical Research Letters, 26: 855–858.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • New M, Hulme M. 2000. Representing uncertainty in climate change scenarios: a Monte-Carlo approach. Integrated Assessment, 1: 203–213.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Nigam S, Barlow M, Berbery E H. 1999. Analysis links Pacific decadal variability to drought and stream flow in United States. EOS, Transactions American Geophysical Union, 80: 621–625.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sauchyn D J, Beaudoin A B. 1998. Recent environmental change in the southwestern Canadian Plains. The Canadian Geographer, 42: 337–353.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sauchyn D J, Barrow E M, Hopkinson R F, et al. 2002. Aridity on the Canadian Plains. Géographie Physique et Quaternaire, 56: 247–259.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sauchyn D J, Stroich J, Beriault A. 2003. A paleoclimatic context for the drought of 1999–2001 in the northern Great Plains of North America. The Geographical Journal, 169: 158–167.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Schubert S, Gutzler D, Wang H L, et al. 2009. A U.S. CLIVAR project to assess and compare the responses of global climate models to drought-related SST forcing patterns: overview and results. Journal of Climate, 22: 5251–5272.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Sheppard W D, Noble D L. 1976. Germination, Survival, and Growth of Lodgepole Pine under Simulated Precipitation Regimes: a Greenhouse Study. In: USDA Forest Service Research Note RM-328. Fort Collins: United States Department of Agriculture, Forest Service, Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station.

    Google Scholar 

  • Stuiver M, Reimer P J, Bard E, et al. 1998. INTCAL 98 radiocarbon age calibration, 24,000-0 cal BP., 40: 1041–1083.

    Google Scholar 

  • Touchan R, Meko D M, Hughes M. 1999. A 396-year reconstruction of precipitation in southern Jordan. Journal of the American Water Resources Association, 35: 49–59.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Vincent L A, Gullett D W. 1999. Canadian historical and homogenous temperature datasets for climate change analysis. Journal of Climatology, 19: 1375–1388.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Wiken E B. 1986. Terrestrial Ecozones of Canada. In: Ecological Land Classification Series No. 19. Ottawa: Environment Canada, Lands Directorate.

    Google Scholar 

  • Wolfe S A, Huntley D J, David P P, et al. 2001. Late 18th century drought-induced sand dune activity, Great Sand Hills, Saskatchewan. Canadian Journal of Earth Sciences, 38: 105–117.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Yu G, Shen H D. 2010. Lake water changes in response to climate change in northern China: simulations and uncertainty analysis. Quaternary International, 212: 44–56.

    Article  Google Scholar 

  • Zhang X, Vincent L A, Hogg W D, et al. 2000. Temperature and precipitation trends in Canada during the 20th century. Atmosphere-Ocean, 38: 395–429.

    Article  Google Scholar 

Download references

Author information

Authors and Affiliations

  1. State Key Laboratory of Lake Science and Environment, Nan**g Institute of Geography and Limnology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Nan**g, 210008, China

    Ge Yu & YongFei Li

  2. Prairie Adaptation and Research Collaborative, University of Regina, Regina, S4S 7J7, Canada

    Dave Sauchyn

Authors
  1. Ge Yu
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  2. Dave Sauchyn
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

  3. YongFei Li
    View author publications

    You can also search for this author in PubMed Google Scholar

Corresponding author

Correspondence to Ge Yu.

Rights and permissions

Reprints and permissions

About this article

Cite this article

Yu, G., Sauchyn, D. & Li, Y. Drought changes and the mechanism analysis for the North American Prairie. J. Arid Land 5, 1–14 (2013). https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-013-0136-4

Download citation

  • Received:

  • Revised:

  • Accepted:

  • Published:

  • Issue Date:

  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s40333-013-0136-4

Keywords

Search

Navigation