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Urban shrinkage and growth: Measurement and determinants of economic resilience in the Pearl River Delta

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Abstract

In the aftermath of the global financial crisis of 2008, China witnessed gradual shrinkage of cities in the Pearl River Delta (PRD). In this study, we introduce the concept of economic resilience to analyse urban growth and shrinkage in the context of a rapidly-urbanising region. Multiple regression analysis is performed to explore the determinants of economic resilience in the PRD. By measuring resistance in the shrinking phase and re-coverability in the growing phase in a group of cities in the PRD, this study distinguishes four scenarios and investigates their characteristics from a spatial perspective. The results demonstrate that the financial crisis had a severe and asymmetric influence on this area, indicating more than 15% of cities are faced with shrinking. The spatial distribution of economic resilience indicates a centre-periphery pattern, that is, high economic resilience in the inner ring and low economic resilience in the outer ring of the PRD. The service economy is found to play a significant role in promoting urban economic resilience. Results imply that sound economic policies for enhancing resilience: both poor local financial status and a high degree of export concentration adversely impact resistance, while upgrading the manufacturing economy and stimulating of industrial innovation are conducive to improve recoverability.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Guangzhou Institute of Geography, Guangzhou, 510070, China

    Zhiwei Du, Hongou Zhang, Yuyao Ye, Lixia ** & Qian Xu

  2. Guangdong Open Laboratory of Geospatial Information Technology and Application, Guangzhou, 510070, China

    Zhiwei Du, Hongou Zhang, Yuyao Ye, Lixia ** & Qian Xu

Authors
  1. Zhiwei Du
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  2. Hongou Zhang
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  3. Yuyao Ye
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  4. Lixia **
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  5. Qian Xu
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Correspondence to Zhiwei Du.

Additional information

Foundation: National Natural Science Foundation of China, No. 41801122; GDAS’ Special Project of Science and Technology Development, No. 2016GDASRC-0101, No. 2018GDASCX-0901

Author: Du Zhiwei (1987-), PhD, specialized in regional development and city planning, urban growth and shrinkage.

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Du, Z., Zhang, H., Ye, Y. et al. Urban shrinkage and growth: Measurement and determinants of economic resilience in the Pearl River Delta. J. Geogr. Sci. 29, 1331–1345 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-019-1662-6

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-019-1662-6

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