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Long-term trends of precipitation in the North China Plain

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Abstract

The North China Plain (NCP) is the most important food grain producing area in China and has suffered from serious water shortages. To capture variation water availability, it is necessary to have an analysis of changing trends in precipitation. This study, based on daily precipitation data from 47 representative stations in NCP records passed the homogeneity test, analyzed the trend and amplitude of variation in monthly, seasonal and annual precipitation, annual maximum continuous no-rain days, annual rain days, rainfall intensity, and rainfall extremes from 1960 to 2007, using the Mann-Kendall (M-K) test and Sen’s slope estimator. It was found that monthly precipitation in winter had a significant increasing trend in most parts, while monthly precipitation in July to September showed a decreasing trend in some parts of NCP. No significant changing trend was found for the annual, dry and wet season precipitation and rainfall extremes in the majority of NCP.A significant decreasing trend was detected for the maximum no-rain duration and annual rain days in the major part of NCP. It was concluded that the changing trend of precipitation in NCP had an apparent seasonal and regional pattern, i.e., precipitation showed an obvious increasing trend in winter, but a decreasing trend in the rainy season (July to September), and the changing trend was more apparent in the northern part than in the southern and middle parts. This implies that with global warming, seasonal variation of precipitation in NCP tends to decline with an increasing of precipitation in winter season, and a decreasing in rainy season, particularly in the sub-humid northern part.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, CAS, Bei**g, 100101, China

    Lan Fan, Changhe Lu & Zhao Chen

  2. University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Bei**g, 100049, China

    Lan Fan & Zhao Chen

  3. China Academy of Space Technology, Bei**g, 100094, China

    Biao Yang

Authors
  1. Lan Fan
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  2. Changhe Lu
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  3. Biao Yang
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  4. Zhao Chen
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Corresponding author

Correspondence to Changhe Lu.

Additional information

Foundation: National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program), No.2012CB955304; National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41071063

Author: Fan Lan (1985–), Ph.D, specialized in the research of climate change and food production.

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Fan, L., Lu, C., Yang, B. et al. Long-term trends of precipitation in the North China Plain. J. Geogr. Sci. 22, 989–1001 (2012). https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-012-0978-2

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  • DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s11442-012-0978-2

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