A Novel Approach for Prediction of Monthly Ground Water Level Using a Hybrid Wavelet and Non-Tuned Self-Adaptive Machine Learning Model

Abstract

In recent decades, due to groundwater withdrawal in the Kabodarahang region, Iran, Hamadan, hazardous events such as sinkholes, droughts, water scarcity, etc., have occurred. This study models groundwater level (GWL) of the Kabodarahang region using two novel techniques including Self-Adaptive Extreme Learning Machine (SAELM) and Wavelet-Self-Adaptive Extreme Learning Machine (WA-SAELM). Using the stepwise selection as different lags along with different input combinations, ten different SAELM and WA-SAELM models were developed. First, the best activation function is chosen for numerical models. After that, GWL values were normalized to equalize the values and enhance speed and accuracy of modeling. Then, an optimized mother wavelet is selected in order to simulate GWLs. Next, the best model was introduced as the superior model in which values of the correlation coefficient (R), Root Mean Squared Error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSC) were obtained 0.969, 0.358 and 0.939, respectively. In addition, the results of the superior model are compared with classical neural network models such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN), Wavelet-Artificial Neural Network (WA-ANN), Support Vector Machine (SVM) and Wavelet-Support Vector Machine (WA-SVM). Among all models, WA-SAELM approximated GWLs with higher accuracy. Furthermore, based on the results obtained from an uncertainty analysis, the superior model was identified as a model with an underestimated performance. Additionally, an explicit and practical matrix was proposed for computing GWLs. Finally, the matrix was validated for another piezometer.