Abstract
Objectives
Effects of place-based criminal justice interventions extend across both space and time, yet methodological approaches for evaluating these programs often do not accommodate the spatiotemporal dimension of the data. This paper presents an example of a bivariate spatiotemporal Ripley’s K-function, which is increasingly employed in the field of epidemiology to analyze spatiotemporal event data. Advantages of this technique over the adapted Knox test are discussed.
Methods
The study relies on x–y coordinates of the exact locations of stop-question-frisk (SQF) and crime incident events in New York City to assess the deterrent effect of SQFs on crime across space at a daily level.
Results
The findings suggest that SQFs produce a modest reduction in crime, which extends over a three-day period. Diffusion of benefits is observed within 300 feet from the location of the SQF, but these effects decay as distance from the SQF increases.
Conclusions
A bivariate spatiotemporal Ripley’s K-function is a promising approach to evaluating place-based crime prevention interventions, and may serve as a useful tool to guide program development and implementation in criminology.
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Notes
For a more general examination of SQFs in New York City and discussion of broader policy implications, see Weisburd et al. (Under review).
All events were geocoded by the NYPD, and a hit rate of 96.8 and 97.9 % was obtained for crime incidents and SQFs, respectfully. The geocoding hit rate is well above the 85 % suggested threshold for a minimal reliable geocoding rate (Ratcliffe 2004). Crime incidents involving rape and other sex crimes were not included in the analyses because the x–y coordinates were redacted by the NYPD (1 % of incidents).
\(\hat{D}_{0} (s,t)\) may be estimated exclusively in R software, but K1D was selected to calculate the unbiased estimate of K(t) due to computational efficiency (see also Bigler et al. 2007; Hu et al. 2006; Long et al. 2007; Schoennagel et al. 2007). K1D software is available from the University of Oregon, Department of Geography’s website: http://geog.uoregon.edu/envchange/pbl/software.html/.
A subset of events were analyzed from the Bronx to ensure that K-function estimates were robust against spatial heterogeneity within the study area (such as that caused by rivers, etc.).
A total of 37.2 % of crime incidents in the sample occurred at the same location as an SQF during the study period. The majority of instances when crime and SQF locations match exactly is likely due to the events co-occurring on street intersections. This inference is based on research demonstrating that the majority of SQFs and nearly a quarter of crime incidents in NYC occur at intersections (Weisburd et al. 2014). A comparison of the type of crime incidents occurring on intersections versus street segments for years 2006–2011 are as follows: personal (35.6 vs 33.9 %); property (32.9 vs 45.9 %); drugs/alcohol and prostitution (22.1 vs 13.8 %); and other (9.4 vs 6.3 %).
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Wooditch, A., Weisburd, D. Using Space–Time Analysis to Evaluate Criminal Justice Programs: An Application to Stop-Question-Frisk Practices. J Quant Criminol 32, 191–213 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-015-9259-4
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DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s10940-015-9259-4