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Potential impact of climate change on streamflow of major Ethiopian rivers

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Abstract

In this study, HSPF (Hydrologic Simulation Program-FORTRAN) was used to analyze the potential impact of climate change on the streamflow of four major river basins in Ethiopia: Awash, Baro, Genale, and Tekeze. The calibrated and validated HSPF model was forced with daily climate data of 10 CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5) Global Climate Models (GCMs) for the 1971–2000 control period and the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 climate projections of 2041–2070 (2050s) and 2071–2100 (2080s). The ensemble median of these 10 GCMs projects the temperature in the four study areas to increase by about 2.3 °C (3.3 °C) in 2050s (2080s), whereas the mean annual precipitation is projected to increase by about 6% (9%) in 2050s (2080s). This results in about 3% (6%) increase in the projected annual streamflow in Awash, Baro, and Tekeze rivers whereas the annual streamflow of Genale river is projected to increase by about 18% (33%) in the 2050s (2080s). However, such projected increase in the mean annual streamflow due to increasing precipitation over Ethiopia contradicts the decreasing trends in mean annual precipitation observed in recent decades. Regional climate models of high resolutions could provide more realistic climate projections for Ethiopia’s complex topography, thus reducing the uncertainties in future streamflow projections.

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Acknowledgements

The first author was supported by the Natural Science and Engineering Research Council of Canada and by the University of Alberta. The authors thank Ato Suraphel Mamo and Ato Zerihun Walelign for their cooperation in the provision observed streamflow and climate data for this study.

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Authors and Affiliations

  1. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Alberta, Edmonton, Alberta, T6G 1H9, Canada

    Mesgana Seyoum Gizaw & Thian Yew Gan

  2. Golder Associates, Calgary, Alberta, Canada

    Getu Fana Biftu

  3. School of Civil and Environmental Engineering, AAIT, Addis Ababa University, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia

    Semu Ayalew Moges

  4. Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Aalto University School of Engineering, Aalto, Finland

    Harri Koivusalo

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  1. Mesgana Seyoum Gizaw
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  2. Getu Fana Biftu
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  3. Thian Yew Gan
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  4. Semu Ayalew Moges
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  5. Harri Koivusalo
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Correspondence to Thian Yew Gan.

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Gizaw, M.S., Biftu, G.F., Gan, T.Y. et al. Potential impact of climate change on streamflow of major Ethiopian rivers. Climatic Change 143, 371–383 (2017). https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-017-2021-1

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