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A comparison between the application of empirical and ANN methods for estimation of daily global solar radiation in Iran

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Abstract

The present study generally aims to provide a comparison between the performance and suitability of different types of models for estimation of daily global solar radiation in Iran, based on duration of sunshine hours and diurnal air temperature. These models consist of empirical, ordinary ANN, and ANN models coupled with genetic algorithm (so called coupled ANN models). The models’ performance was evaluated and compared based on the error statistics root mean squared error (RMSE), mean bias error (MBE), and coefficient of determination (R2). The empirical models (median of R2, MBE, RMSE for AP 0.93, 37.0, and 179.3 J/cm2/day) could generally perform much better than the ordinary ANN models (median of R2, MBE, RMSE for MLP(n) 0.90, 55.7, and 243.5 J/cm2/day). The performance of the ordinary ANN models was improved considerably after being coupled by genetic algorithm (median of R2, MBE, RMSE for MLP-GA(n) 0.92, 38.4, and 185.5 J/cm2/day), making them the most accurate models at most of the stations studied. However, the difference between the overall performances of these coupled ANN models and empirical ones was slight. Lastly, despite the coupled ANN models had relatively better accuracy compared to the empirical ones, when taking different metrics such as the required processing time, skill, and equipment into account, the empirical models appear to be the most suitable models for estimation of daily global solar radiation in Iran.

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Acknowledgements

The authors would like to kindly thank the Islamic Republic of Iran Meteorological Organization (IRIMO) for providing the required data.

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  1. Departament de Física, Universitat de Girona, Girona, Spain

    Babak Jahani

  2. College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nan**g, 210098, China

    Babak Mohammadi

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Jahani, B., Mohammadi, B. A comparison between the application of empirical and ANN methods for estimation of daily global solar radiation in Iran. Theor Appl Climatol 137, 1257–1269 (2019). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-018-2666-3

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