Abstract
Intraseasonal variability (ISV) is a primary source for the sub-seasonal prediction that affects the livelihood of billions of people. Interannual variation of ISV intensity is important for seasonal prediction of ISV impacts on severe weathers. Existing measures of overall tropical ISV intensity, however, do not show any significant simultaneous relationship with external sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs). In this study, it is proposed that the ISV intensity, represented by the seasonal standard deviation of the 30–90-day filtered outgoing longwave radiation (OLR), has a good relation with the external SSTAs. With this measure, two major components of the interannual variability of global ISV intensity are detected for both boreal summer and winter: EOF1 calls its variability over the central Pacific and EOF2 is associated with the variability over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool region. More importantly, each of these two components is significantly related to SSTAs over a specific tropical region. The central Pacific ISV intensity is strong during central Pacific warming, while the ISV intensity is strong over the Indo-Pacific Warm Pool region during eastern Pacific cooling. The eastern and central Pacific warming has very different impacts on the ISV intensity: The eastern Pacific warming largely reduces the winter ISV intensity over the Indian Ocean, while the central Pacific warming only induces neutral winter ISV intensity anomalies over the Indian Ocean. In the summer, the ISV intensity variability is confined near the equator associated with the central Pacific warming; the eastern Pacific warming, however, induces large ISV intensity variability over the western North pacific because of strong northeastward propagation of the boreal summer ISV under the easterly vertical shear.
Similar content being viewed by others
References
Adames ÁF, Wallace JM (2014) Three-dimensional structure and evolution of the vertical velocity and divergence fields in the MJO. J Atmos Sci 71:4661–4681
Annamalai H, Sperber K (2005) Regional heat sources and the active and break phases of boreal summer intraseasonal (30-50 day) variability*. J Atmos Sci 62:2726–2748
Anyamba EK, Weare BC (1995) Temporal variability of the 40 50-day oscillation in tropical convection. Int J Climatol 15:379–402
Bergman JW, Hendon HH, Weickmann KM (2001) Intraseasonal air-sea interactions at the onset of El Nino. J Clim 14:1702–1719
Emanuel KA (1987) An air-sea interaction model of intraseasonal oscillations in the tropics. J Atmos Sci 44:2324–2340
Fink A, Speth P (1997) Some potential forcing mechanisms of the year-to-year variability of the tropical convection and its intraseasonal (25–70-day) variability. Int J Climatol 17:1513–1534
Gualdi S, Navarra A, Tinarelli G (1999) The interannual variability of the Madden–Julian oscillation in an ensemble of GCM simulations. Clim Dynam 15:643–658
Hendon HH, Salby ML (1994) The life cycle of the Madden-Julian oscillation. J Atmos Sci 51:2225–2237
Hendon HH, Zhang C, Glick JD (1999) Interannual variation of the Madden-Julian Oscillation during austral summer. J Clim 12:2538–2550
Hendon HH, Wheeler MC, Zhang C (2007) Seasonal dependence of the MJO-ENSO relationship. J Clim 20:531–543
Jiang X, Li T, Wang B (2004) Structures and mechanisms of the northward propagating boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation*. J Clim 17:1022–1039
Kanamitsu M, Ebisuzaki W, Woollen J, Yang S-K, Hnilo J, Fiorino M, Potter G (2002) NCEP-DOE AMIP-II reanalysis (R-2). B Am Meteorol Soc 83:1631–1643
Kemball-Cook S, Wang B (2001) Equatorial waves and air-sea interaction in the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. J Clim 14:2923–2942
Kessler WS (2001) EOF representations of the Madden-Julian oscillation and its connection with ENSO*. J Clim 14:3055–3061
Kessler WS, Kleeman R (2000) Rectification of the Madden-Julian oscillation into the ENSO cycle. J Clim 13:3560–3575
Kikuchi K, Wang B, Kajikawa Y (2012) Bimodal representation of the tropical intraseasonal oscillation. Clim Dynam 38:1989–2000
Kiladis GN et al (2014) A comparison of OLR and circulation-based indices for tracking the MJO. Mon Weather Rev 142:1697–1715
Kim H-M, Kang I-S, Wang B, Lee J-Y (2008) Interannual variations of the boreal summer intraseasonal variability predicted by ten atmosphere–ocean coupled models. Clim Dynam 30:485–496
Krishnamurti TN, Subrahmanyam D (1982) The 30-50 day mode at 850 mb during MONEX. J Atmos Sci 39:2088–2095
Lau K-M, Chan P (1986) Aspects of the 40-50 day oscillation during the northern summer as inferred from outgoing longwave radiation. Mon Weather Rev 114:1354–1367
Lau K-M, Chan PH (1988) Intraseasonal and interannual variations of tropical convection: a possible link between the 40-50 day oscillation and ENSO? J Atmos Sci 45:506–521
Lau K, Shen S (1988) On the dynamics of intraseasonal oscillations and ENSO. J Atmos Sci 45:1781–1797
Lawrence DM, Webster PJ (2001) Interannual variations of the intraseasonal oscillation in the south Asian summer monsoon region. J Clim 14:2910–2922
Lee J-Y, Wang B, Wheeler MC, Fu X, Waliser DE, Kang I-S (2013) Real-time multivariate indices for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation over the Asian summer monsoon region. Clim Dynam 40:493–509
Li T, Wang B (1994) The influence of sea surface temperature on the tropical intraseasonal oscillation: a numerical study. Mon Weather Rev 122:2349–2362
Liebmann B, Smith CA (1996) Description of a complete (interpolated) outgoing longwave radiation dataset. Bull Am Meteorol Soc 77:1275–1277
Liebmann B, Hendon HH, Glick JD (1994) The relationship between tropical cyclones of the western Pacific and Indian oceans and the Madden-Julian oscillation. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 72:401–412
Liess S, Bengtsson L, Arpe K (2004) The intraseasonal oscillation in ECHAM4 Part I: coupled to a comprehensive ocean model. Clim Dynam 22:653–669
Liu F, Wang B (2012a) A model for the interaction between 2-day waves and moist Kelvin waves*. J Atmos Sci 69:611–625
Liu F, Wang B (2012b) A conceptual model for self-sustained active-break Indian summer monsoon. Geophys Res Lett 39, L20814
Liu F, Wang B (2013a) Impacts of upscale heat and momentum transfer by moist Kelvin waves on the Madden–Julian oscillation: a theoretical model study. Clim Dynam 40:213–224
Liu F, Wang B (2013b) An air–sea coupled skeleton model for the Madden–Julian oscillation*. J Atmos Sci 70:3147–3156
Liu F, Wang B (2014) A mechanism for explaining the maximum intraseasonal oscillation center over the Western North Pacific*. J Clim 27:958–968
Liu F, Huang G, Feng L (2012) Critical roles of convective momentum transfer in sustaining the multi-scale Madden–Julian oscillation. Theor Appl Climatol 108:471–477
Lo F, Hendon HH (2000) Empirical extended-range prediction of the Madden-Julian oscillation. Mon Weather Rev 128:2528–2543
Madden RA (1986) Seasonal variations of the 40-50 day oscillation in the tropics. J Atmos Sci 43:3138–3158
Madden RA, Julian PR (1971) Detection of a 40-50 day oscillation in the zonal wind in the tropical Pacific. J Atmos Sci 28:702–708
Madden RA, Julian PR (1972) Description of global-scale circulation cells in the tropics with a 40-50 day period. J Atmos Sci 29:1109–1123
Maloney ED (2009) The moist static energy budget of a composite tropical intraseasonal oscillation in a climate model. J Clim 22:711–729
Maloney ED, Hartmann DL (2000a) Modulation of hurricane activity in the Gulf of Mexico by the Madden-Julian oscillation. Science 287:2002–2004
Maloney ED, Hartmann DL (2000b) Modulation of Eastern North Pacific hurricanes by the Madden-Julian oscillation. J Clim 13:1451–1460
Maloney ED, Sobel AH, Hannah WM (2010) Intraseasonal variability in an aquaplanet general circulation model. J Adv Model Earth Syst 2:1–14
Martin ER, Schumacher C (2011) The Caribbean low-level jet and its relationship with precipitation in IPCC AR4 models. J Clim 24:5935–5950
Moon J-Y, Wang B, Ha K-J (2011) ENSO regulation of MJO teleconnection. Clim Dynam 37:1133–1149
Murakami M (1984) Analysis of the deep convective activity over the Western Pacific and Southeast Asia. II: seasonal and intraseasonal variations during Northern Summer. J Meteorol Soc Jpn 62:88–108
North GR, Bell TL, Cahalan RF, Moeng FJ (1982) Sampling errors in the estimation of empirical orthogonal functions. Mon Weather Rev 110:699–706
Salby ML, Hendon HH (1994) Intraseasonal behavior of clouds, temperature, and motion in the Tropics. J Atmos Sci 51:2207–2224
Salby ML, Garcia RR, Hendon HH (1994) Planetary-scale circulations in the presence of climatological and wave-induced heating. J Atmos Sci 51:2344–2367
Serra YL, Kiladis GN, Hodges KI (2010) Tracking and mean structure of easterly waves over the intra-Americas sea. J Clim 23:4823–4840
Slingo J, Rowell D, Sperber K, Nortley F (1999) On the predictability of the interannual behaviour of the Madden-Julian Oscillation and its relationship with El Niño. Q J Roy Meteor Soc 125:583–609
Smith TM, Reynolds RW, Peterson TC, Lawrimore J (2008) Improvements to NOAA's historical merged land-ocean surface temperature analysis (1880-2006). J Clim 21:2283–2296
Takayabu YN, Iguchi T, Kachi M, Shibata A, Kanzawa H (1999) Abrupt termination of the 1997–98 El Nino in response to a Madden–Julian oscillation. Nature 402:279–282
Teng H, Wang B (2003) Interannual variations of the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation in the Asian-Pacific Region*. J Clim 16:3572–3584
Waliser DE, Jones C, Schemm J-KE, Graham NE (1999) A statistical extended-range tropical forecast model based on the slow evolution of the Madden-Julian Oscillation. J Clim 12:1918–1939
Waliser DE, Zhang Z, Lau K, Kim J-H (2001) Interannual sea surface temperature variability and the predictability of tropical intraseasonal variability. J Atmos Sci 58:2596–2615
Wang B (1988) Comments on “An air-sea interaction model of intraseasonal oscillation in the tropics”. J Atmos Sci 45:3521–3525
Wang B, Liu F (2011) A model for scale interaction in the Madden-Julian oscillation*. J Atmospheric Sci 68:2524–2536
Wang B, Rui H (1990) Dynamics of the coupled moist Kelvin-Rossby wave on an equatorial β-plane. J Atmos Sci 47:397–413
Wang B, **e X (1997) A model for the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. J Atmos Sci 54:72–86
Wang B, **e X (1998) Coupled modes of the warm pool climate system. Part I: the role of air-sea interaction in maintaining Madden-Julian oscillation. J Clim 11:2116–2135
Wang B, Webster PJ, Teng H (2005) Antecedents and self-induction of active-break south Asian monsoon unraveled by satellites. Geophys Res Lett 32:4704
Weickmann K (1991) El Niño/Southern Oscillation and Madden‐Julian (30–60 day) oscillations during 1981–1982. J Geophys Res: Oceans (1978–2012) 96:3187–3195
Wheeler MC, Hendon HH (2004) An all-season real-time multivariate MJO index: development of an index for monitoring and prediction. Mon Weather Rev 132:1917–1932
Yasunari T (1979) Cloudiness fluctuations associated with the Northern Hemisphere summer monsoon. J Meteor Soc Japan 57:227–242
Yun K-S, Seo K-H, Ha K-J (2008) Relationship between ENSO and northward propagating intraseasonal oscillation in the east Asian summer monsoon system. J Geophys Res 113, D14120
Zhang C (2005) Madden‐Julian Oscillation. Rev Geophys 42:G2003
Zhang C (2013) Madden-Julian oscillation: bridging weather and climate. B Am Meteorol Soc 94:1849–1870
Zhang C, Dong M (2004) Seasonality in the Madden-Julian oscillation. J Clim 17:3169–3180
Zhang C, Gottschalck J (2002) SST anomalies of ENSO and the Madden-Julian oscillation in the equatorial Pacific. J Clim 15:2429–2445
Zhao C, Li T, Zhou T (2013) Precursor signals and processes associated with MJO initiation over the tropical Indian Ocean*. J Clim 26:291–307
Zhou L, Murtugudde R (2014) Impact of northward-propagating intraseasonal variability on the onset of Indian summer monsoon. J Clim 27:126–139
Acknowledgments
Data to support this article include the Interpolated OLR data, ERSST_V3 data, and NCEP Reanalysis 2 data provided by the NOAA/OAR/ESRL PSD, Boulder, Colorado, USA, from their website at http://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/. This study was supported by the National Key Basic Research and Development Project of China No. 2013CB430302 and No. 2015CB453200, the Natural Science Foundation of China No. 41425019 and No. 41376034, and Open Research Fund Program of Plateau Atmosphere and Environment Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Grants PAEKL-2014-K2. This paper is ESMC Contribution No. 0043.
Author information
Authors and Affiliations
Corresponding author
Rights and permissions
About this article
Cite this article
Liu, F., Zhou, L., Ling, J. et al. Relationship between SST anomalies and the intensity of intraseasonal variability. Theor Appl Climatol 124, 847–854 (2016). https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1458-2
Received:
Accepted:
Published:
Issue Date:
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1007/s00704-015-1458-2